Will Tesla lift Model 3 Production?

[Mark Benson]

In the recent Q3 earnings, Tesla hinted that it is well capitalized to accommodate the revised ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 per week. Also, Tesla now expects Model S and Model X are on pace for about 100,000 deliveries in 2017. Graphics of the results alphastreet.com/b6371489

Will the company manage to increase the production of Model 3 to 10,000 per week?

 

[Counterpoint]

They'll probably get 10,000 Model 3s per week out the door at some point, but I'd guess it will take until 2019 or later to make it happen. My question is: how long will it take them to fill all the pre-orders? At the rate they're going, I wouldn't be surprised if there's still a 6 month wait to get one in 2021.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

My question is: how long will it take them to fill all the pre-orders? At the rate they're going, I wouldn't be surprised if there's still a 6 month wait to get one in 2021.

Let us please not conflate pre-orders with the waiting time for new orders. There might well be a 6 month waiting time in 2021, but we Tesla fans will hope that would be because the car is so wildly popular that new orders are still pouring faster than Tesla can meet them! And not that Tesla is still struggling to significantly ramp up TM3 production 3-1/2 or 4 years from now.

A three month delay is disappointing, but given Tesla's history, not really surprising. The idea that the delay could stretch on for years... well, it's simply not reasonable to believe that. Even if Tesla's top management sometimes comes across as bumbling or somewhat clueless, they are certainly not that incompetent. If they were that bad, Tesla would have failed years ago.

 

[Counterpoint]

My supposition is actually that the car is "wildly popular" now and will only continue to become more so. Thus even at a final production rate of 10k a week which I imagine Tesla will hit some time in 2019 or 2020, there will be such a huge backlog that it will take them another couple years to get through it and begin taking orders with similar wait time as one would have buying a Model S or X today.

In other words, my question is: when will regular car buyers be able to test drive a Model 3, configure one, and purchase one without needing to wait months or years before it's ready?