Why no buy EV

[bwilson4web]

Source: AAA: Americans Slow to Adopt Electric Vehicles | AAA Newsroom

• High battery repair costs (62%) and
  • $1k for 5-way thermal bottle replacement
  • $9k for 47 kWh replacement battery
• purchase price (59%) are cited as key barriers to go fully electric. Other top concerns identified in this year’s survey were the perceived
  • $24 k ~= $40 k - $18 k (trade-in)
• unsuitability of EVs for long-distance travel (57%),
  • Huntsville to Las Vegas, Los Angles, Arizona, home
• a lack of convenient public charging stations (56%), and
  • Have peed in the bushes and behind transformers
• fear of running out of charge while driving (55%).
  • Once parasitic load cooling of battery caught me on a hot day.
• Thirty-one percent of those undecided or unlikely to buy an EV have safety concerns,
  • AutoPilot saved my family when I had a medical event in the first month
• 27 percent reported challenges installing charging stations at their residences, and
  • Own home
• 12% cited the potential reduction or elimination of tax credits and rebates. According to AAA’s 2024 Your Driving Cost analysis,
  • Converted TSLA stock to solar roof for free, local driving, +90%
• EVs had the second-highest total ownership costs due to depreciation,
  • Tesla offers $8.5 k for 6 year old, 152,000 mi, modified, MY CAR!
• purchase prices, and
  • Tesla will take trade-ins like my former 2017 Prius Prime
• finance charges.
  • Also insurance fees

This means is now is a buyer's market for end of lease EVs. Buy with cash and have a happy.

Bob Wilson

 

[R P]

The slowdown is real. Biggest issue at this time, is we need lower cost EVs, much lower to keep the movement going. Reminds me of a long time ago, it took the Japanese to bring in small low cost cars to get our domestics to do the same.

 

[brianc35]

One key item that is missing from that list is the cost of electric keeps increasing.

Gas is still around $3-4 a gallon, and has been in the $3-5 range for the better part of 8? years in my area. Sure, there will be increases and fluctuations like any industry but it's been pretty stable for a long while now.

On the other hand, electric costs have doubled or tripled. I used to be able to power my home for around $70 in the non heating, non a/c months (april-jun, sept to nov). Now, i haven't seen a bill under $160 in a long time. Summer bills are over 500 sometimes with the ac running at a frugal 76-77 degrees.

I think this turns people away. They can barely pay the bill now. Every summer, facebook local groups are littered with complaints and pics of their delivery charges.

Even if you get more mpge, and they are spending it on gas anyway, it's something they know and it's spread out (weekly fill ups?) instead of one mass bill with a shock factor.


A lot of people also don't own homes, which makes home charging not a thing. Or their landlord won't allow it. Or, no garage, or the hoa won't let them run a cord/etc. There's a lot of sidebar reasons. There's very few charging stations near me. Have to drive about 30 min in to the city to find a bank of them in the parking garage. Totally not convenient. There's a single charger in the town hall parking lot. and every time i drive by, it's occupied. I couldn't imagine the frustration of trying to find it open to charge. I would run my own at my house, of course, but others aren't in that situation to be able to do that.


The other item that i'm still on the fence about is the disposal/recycling of spent cells. I think there's a lot of work to be done in this area. So to that end, i'm glad we aren't seeing mass adoption at scale that the tail end of the process isn't ready for yet.

 

[No Ice]

yes its hard to make ends meet some times the $ just is not what it used to be, 6 years ago i had a 7.5 kw solar system fitted to keep down the power costs, its paid for itself already after 5 years. now i have an EV and almost free fuel for it, loss of feed in tariff is 0.02 cents per kwh, so my cost for the power for my EV is at 5 km per kwh 0.0004 cents a km, on the road at fast charges its 0.45c per kwh so that's 5.63c per km, my ev a Kona limited 2023 gets 440 km per charge so i only recharge about on in every 50 trips, my estimated total fuel cost per km is about 0.0061c per km, my wife Kona 1.6 turbo 4wd only gets 15 km per lt, so that's about 0.16 cents per km. also here service costed for 15000 km per year are about 980 as mine are 195 per year, so that's a big saving of $0.05c per km as well., so its like if you can and it saves you money and the planet as well then many of the people will buy an EV if it suites there life style for driving.
I am in west Australia and we only have 20,000 ev,s so far although we have a bigger area than most US states 2,500 sq kms and the longest EV charging string 4,500 km long, Jim

 

[bwilson4web]

Test configuration:

This configuration maximizes charing the car by solar energy from the combined solar panels and solar panel storage battery. It minimizes the risk of using expensive Grid power.

Using the Tesla Charging, circuit metrics:

• Data collected by SPAN breaker box from circuit, "Tesla charger", while 2019 Model 3 is plugged in. This includes all overhead and the battery charging.
• 9:30 - 13: 18 - Charging the Tesla, circuit breaker panel to battery
  • Tesla car charging set to 20 A at 240 VAC or 4.8 kW rate into battery
    • 4.8 kW is maximum solar array output, 20 A.
    • 5.0 kW is the maximum solar array battery output, 22 A.
  • Tesla Universal charger reports 228 minutes, 17.9 kWh during Tesla charging, no cabin cooling
  • SPAN reports 17.8 kWh, 5.6 kW rate to Tesla Universal charger
  • ~800 W lost between circuit and Tesla battery, ~86% efficiency charging car
• 14:00 - 16:00 - Cabin cooling of car (2019 Tesla Model 3 Std Rng Plus) at 72 F
  • No Tesla car, battery charging
  • Windows closed in afternoon sunlight
  • Tesla Universal charger reports 120 minutes, 2.2 kWh during closed windows, cabin cooling
    • Afternoon shade stopped heating car interior
  • SPAN reports 2.2 kWh of cooling car
  • No way to detect power lost between circuit and Tesla cooling

It is well known that there are EV car charging losses converting L2 AC power to battery charging voltages so the ~85% efficiency is well within expectations. The 20 A charging rate was selected so between the solar panels and solar panel storage battery, no expensive grid power would be needed. The car is ONLY charged from solar panel generated power.

Continuous cooling of the closed car shows an initial, high power peak ~2 kW followed by ~1.2 kW sustained cooling load. Apparently the car cabin cooling runs at ~2 kW or 1.2 kW. Regardless this will let me measure the effectiveness of different sun screen systems to maximize cooling while minimizing power required.

Bob Wilson

 

[No Ice]

yes this is good bob, sorry i missed a 0 in how big west Australia its 2,530,000 sq kms or 4 times the size of Texas, with so far only 20,000 EV s

 

[Keith Smith]

If you are getting 85% efficiency, you are doing well. Based on my evse reports and some educated guessing estimating my supposed 64K pack at 10% -> 100 I seem to be closer to 80 than 85. I think the Tesla reports numbers somewhat agressively sometimes, but if you are basically pulling from solar to charge up it doesn't matter anyway, so I say BFD.

You take a hit at least 7-8% every time you move electrical energy from one place to another. This kills me with my solar if I push excess to my solar batteries, then from there back to the car, but again, it was "free" to start with, so . . . I've been reading about direct DC from Solar, but it seems impractical, as you are now dedicating your production for a single use, and solar panels just are not that expensive anymore.

EV's IMNSHO are way easier to deal with on the maintenance front, tires and wiper blades. OTOH if you do not live in a single family home or have convenient charging at your residence that is reasonable cost it's a stupid purchase. There are some that offer free commercial charging for a year or something, but that is going to have to give long term. We are starting to see some L2 stuff in apartment complexes and the like, honestly this is the biggest barrier for most folks.

The next thing is going to be the tax angle. Since most highway funds come from fuel tax, the more electrics on the road, the more it's gonna hurt. The first round of this happened when ICE vehicles got rapidly more efficient, we still don't know how this is going to play out. I love my EVs but I'm realistic about the future on what it's going to cost to keep it on the road.

 

[Keith Smith]

yes this is good bob, sorry i missed a 0 in how big west Australia its 2,530,000 sq kms or 4 times the size of Texas, with so far only 20,000 EV s

Weirdly, at least at one time, it has had more Nissan Leaf's than any other country. There is an outfit down that way that does pack upgrades for them.

 

[bwilson4web]

The next thing is going to be the tax angle. Since most highway funds come from fuel tax, the more electrics on the road, the more it's gonna hurt. The first round of this happened when ICE vehicles got rapidly more efficient, we still don't know how this is going to play out. I love my EVs but I'm realistic about the future on what it's going to cost to keep it on the road.

The large electrical pole on the corner near the street with power transformers feeding three houses and holding the electric power and lower down, land communications lines is another capital cost like roads. As I learn how to manage my solar, replacing lazy bad habits with beneficial ones, I'll take another chunk out of that bill.



Bob Wilson

 

[Keith Smith]

C'mon you cheapskate... Keep the bad habits, put in more solar ! A lot of turn-it-off's just don't kill you any more these days. LED bulbs and energy efficient appliances truly do just sip power. An EV OTOH sucks it down. Jeeze, a dime a KWH is like a joke for cost. EV is a no-brainer where you are. Also means your poco is going to be selective on spending a ton of money on infrastructure.

 

[No Ice]

And now Keith if you get a new Gen 24 + Fronius inverter it can ac power the house and charge your battery AND also DC charge your car with the extra hardware and software.

 

[bwilson4web]

put in more solar

It looks like my solar panels on two days in the last week generated an excess, 11 kWh, clear, sunny, summer days. But my solar battery holds only 13.4 kWh. If I had a second solar battery, I could have saved and used that solar energy to charge my EVs instead of dumping into the grid. But I am getting better at scheduling and charging my EVs.

If I can get my solar-following, EV charger working, I'll be better able to bank my solar power using the EV batteries. Although amusing, I'm not interested in vehicle-to-house sharing ... not yet. My resources:

• 28 kWh - BMW i3-REx battery
• 47 kWh - Tesla battery

Before adding more hardware, the first step is to optimize my loads to minimize grid charges and maximize my usage of the available solar power. Winter will be here soon enough with shorter days and lower sun angles.

Bob Wilson

 

[bwilson4web]

Probably a good time to discuss charging and use metrics:

• North America electricity
  • 240 VAC to homes using split phase transformer, L2 voltage
  • 120 VAC one side of the split phase wall outlet
  • 208 VAC typical commercial voltage for commercial, three phase
  • 110 VAC two phases of three phase commercial wall outlet
  • Amps is universal for circuit breaker
    • Best practice is 80% of breaker rating to avoid heat stress
    • 12-15 A usable on wall outlets for 15-20 A circuit breaker
  • kW = Amps * VAC
• Amps (battery) - in the Tesla and BMW charging settings, the charge going into the battery.
• Amps (circuit) - the actual draw on the circuit including the charger inefficiency, ~85% at L2 voltages
  • 10 A (battery) / 85% efficiency = 11.8 A (circuit) the actual load on the circuit breaker
  • 16 A (battery) / 85% efficiency = 18.8 A (circuit), lowest BMW i3-REx charge rate
  • 20 A (battery) / 85% efficiency = 23.5 A (circuit)
  • 30 A (battery / 85% efficiency = 35.3 A (circuit), highest charge rate BMW i3-REx
  • 32 A (battery) / 85% efficiency = 37.6 A (circuit), highest charge rate Tesla
• kWh (charger) - the power unit for grid charging which may not include overhead but a home owner pays
  • Tesla chargers do not report the efficiency or cabin climate loss!
  • All other chargers report the actual grid charging, kWh
• Miles / kWh - a very useful metric from the BMW for trip planning
  • Wh / mile - Tesla's nearly useless metric shown while driving
    • 1000 / (Wh / mile) = Miles / kWh - converting Tesla to a useful trip metricmetric
    • 200 Wh / mile = 5 miles / kWh :: efficient configuration and driving for Tesla
    • 250 Wh / mile = 4 miles / kWh :: the EPA metric, 25 kWh/100 miles
    • 3.6 miles / kWh :: my measured BMW i3-REx efficiency, driving 63 mph (*)
• kWh/100 miles - the EPA metric given to each electric car
  • 25 kWh/100 mi - 2019 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus (my car)
    • 4 miles / kWh = 100 miles / 25 kWh
  • 26 kWh/100 mi - 2019 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range
  • 30 kWh/100 mi - 2017 BMW i3-REx (my other car)
    • 3.3 miles / kW = 100 miles / 25 kWh

Sad to say, the three metrics for driving efficiency makes head-to-head comparisons and real world operations more confusing than they need to be. Of the different metrics, "miles / kWh" is the most useful for a clever driver. It is also how I evaluate tuning and driving tricks.

The EPA metrics are useful to compare stock cars when buying but otherwise ... not so much unless trying to tune the car for efficient driving. Careful because manufacturers are known to "sandbag" the numbers the wrong way like the "Standard Range" and "Standard Range Plus" Teslas.

Tuning and driving tricks:

• 50 psi - inflate the tires to maximum sidewall and instantly gain more steering authority and efficiency with lower rolling resistance.
• replace Tesla tires, "400 A A" wear rating with "600 A A" or higher - the longer wearing tires have lower rolling resistance. At 63 mph, there is little to no heat induced pressure rise from the tire pressure system (TPS)
• 63 mph - decades of Prius driving revealed this is the steady state, benchmark speed to give EPA results on any car. Higher speeds reduce efficiency and can lead to tire pressure (and temperature) rise, the mark of inefficiency.
  • If tire pressure increases, 2-3 psi, while driving, you are losing range, efficiency, and tire rubber
  • If tire pressure remains within 1 psi of the inflation pressure found in first mile, you are at a good speed
• Narrower and lower diameter tires - improves vehicle efficiency from lower tire drag. However, tire shops often have a "black book" scale of what tires can go on what cars. So I order my tires by lying about what car they go on and take the old tire and rims to the shop for new TPS sensors, mounting, and balancing.
• Alignment - tire shops use an "idiot proof" machine but the gold standard is tire temperature measured right after higher speed, typical driving. Race car drivers use this to tune the suspension and tire inflation for the track.
  • Tire alignment machines require using the door jam pressure so always test and inflate to maximum sidewall after they are done. Either ask or borrow an air hose to get it back to maximum sidewall pressure. If they do it for you, drop off a dozen hot donuts as a tip the next day.

Bob Wilson

 

[Keith Smith]

If I can get my solar-following, EV charger working, I'll be better able to bank my solar power using the EV batteries. Although amusing, I'm not interested in vehicle-to-house sharing ... not yet. My resources:

• 28 kWh - BMW i3-REx battery
• 47 kWh - Tesla battery

Before adding more hardware, the first step is to optimize my loads to minimize grid charges and maximize my usage of the available solar power. Winter will be here soon enough with shorter days and lower sun angles.

Bob Wilson

I've argued the vehicle to house sharing several time. If you don't have solar and solar batteries, maybe to keep a light on, but I think it's dumb for myriad reasons. A couple of the main ones.

#1) If the power is out, and you tap your EV, then send it to zero, now you can't go anywhere either. Frankly I would put mobility over electricity at my house 100% of the time.

2) The backfeed current is gawdawful. ~20A is kind of a joke, which means you have to plumb up a critical loads panel that won't shut the thing down. Gives you basically one small circuit

3) The only surefire guarantee is a generator, which may require your vehicle to go get fuel.

4) It ain't cheap, you have to buy all the proprietary boxes. If all you really want is home backup batteries are around $1000/5KWH + 1300 for a 25A AIO, $2500 for a 50A unit. It's a demand problem at the end of the day.

 

[bwilson4web]

Sunday, June 8 was a good day with lesson's learned:

• "A" - morning solar startup starts about a half hour after sun rise. Initially, the solar charges the battery and my morning coffee and news.
• "B" - the Tesla schedule starts charging at 20 A which often drains the morning battery charge but does not draw appreciable power from the grid. A load of wash started near the end.
• "C" - running errands, the Tesla finished and full solar stored in the solar battery while running errands.
• "D" - started dryer and charged the BMW while taking a nap.
• "E" - final charge on Tesla for a benchmark and overnight, solar battery storage charge.

• Normal distribution of loads.
• Optimizing the Tesla charger to sync current with solar power will minimize drawing grid power and better preserve solar battery storage.

• Success is minimizing excess solar dumped into the grid which comes from "right sizing" the array.

• "She shed" and "Kitchen outlets" are not terrible loads but could be improved:
  • Replace 20 year old refrigerator with energy efficient one.
  • Girl friend stuff.

"Never let perfect become the enemy of good enough" means the system basics are sound. For the next few months, testing "lessons learned":

• Lifestyle load management - shifting when things are done, attentive to what is on, and adapting to new daily schedules. Chill down the house at night and minimize air conditioning to active living spaces.
• Load efficiencies - automatic interior lights and more efficient fridge.
• EV charging efficiency - add EV load proportional to solar panel power.

Winter will be here soon enough when days will be shorter and the sun lower in the sky. Fortunately, I have a very efficient (PVC flue) gas heater so the biggest will be 'not letting the heat escape.' There will be fewer solar kWh but over the year, I'm expecting $1,000-1,200 in electric bill savings.

Bob Wilson