Why 2030 may not be The Magic Year For Electric Vehicles (May be bit biased)

[interestedinEV]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-2030-Isnt-The-Magic-Year-For-Electric-Vehicles.html

There have been many studies predicting by 2030 EVs will rule the world for automotive transportation with over 50% of automobiles being sold in 2030 as being EVs.

This article (from an oil industry magazine) quotes a study by Green Auto Market (http://greenautomarket.com/downloads/will-see-transformation-ground-transport-2030/ ) and another one from Bloomberg NEF (https://about.bnef.com/blog/electri...pidly-light-medium-commercial-vehicle-market/ ) sort of argue the same thing, that the current growth rate in EVs cannot be sustained, that removal of subsidies by China and the actions of Trump Administration will not help sustain. They expect that that 2040 is more likely to be a tipping point. These reports are paid reports, so what I gather is only from the excerpts.


Again both the sources should not have bias and they points they make are reasonable. However, these are just economic predictions and most of these predictions tend to be wrong by bast amounts. An oil industry magazine touting those two are articles is understandable.
My problem with these articles is that they are based purely on economic modeling and do not take into account other variables such as which government will come in power, oil prices and stability in the middle east, the effort people like Greta Thunberg etc.

However it is an interesting read for those who want to hear other side of the argument.



Some of the points made include

....
Last year saw a reverse in the market, with China’s “new energy vehicles” seeing a downturn from overall new vehicle sales facing a dramatic drop along with tightening up of generous government incentives to purchase new EVs. .....
At the rate of 57 percent in global annual EV sales increases, plug-in vehicles would make up 100 percent of the global new vehicles sales market during 2027. That scenario would be impossible to reach aside from an unforeseen miracle...........

A much lower percentage growth rate is to be expected if China were to reduce its subsidies, blockades for mandates on fuel efficient and electric vehicles continue coming from the Trump administration, downward auto sales in several countries will continue for a while, gasoline prices are staying fairly low, and challenges persist for convincing consumers and fleets to transfer over to EV purchases — charging infrastructure, battery capacity, range getting much better, and perceived long-term value and trustworthiness of transitioning over from ICEs to EVs.

Here is one of the charts from the BloombergNEF study

https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/24/PR-chart1.jpg

 

[bwilson4web]

One aspect of this story raises my eyebrows: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shares-plunge-amid-crash-134517577.html

. . .
Dwindling oil prices, triggered by the breakup of the OPEC+ alliance, spells trouble for Tesla. With both Russia and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with cheap oil, the company’s expensive battery-driven vehicles will become a tougher sell.
. . . ​

The economic advantage of cheap electricity over gas will erode while oil prices are low. But we know there is a bottom. The only thing I really like is Russia is so dependent on oil.

Bob Wilson

 

[Domenick]

One aspect of this story raises my eyebrows: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shares-plunge-amid-crash-134517577.html

. . .
Dwindling oil prices, triggered by the breakup of the OPEC+ alliance, spells trouble for Tesla. With both Russia and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with cheap oil, the company’s expensive battery-driven vehicles will become a tougher sell.
. . . ​

The economic advantage of cheap electricity over gas will erode while oil prices are low. But we know there is a bottom. The only thing I really like is Russia is so dependent on oil.

Bob Wilson

Well, you can be pretty sure that the price of oil won't stay super low for long. Saudi Arabia has lots of money but also lots of debt -- almost 19% of GDP in 2018 -- and needs high margins. Russia, too, needs high margins and this should bring everyone back to the bargaining table.

 

[interestedinEV]

Well, you can be pretty sure that the price of oil won't stay super low for long. Saudi Arabia has lots of money but also lots of debt -- almost 19% of GDP in 2018 -- and needs high margins. Russia, too, needs high margins and this should bring everyone back to the bargaining table.

@Domenick you beat me to it. I was going to post this below and had walked away

Neither Russia nor Saudi Arabia really have the ability to sustain low prices for the long haul. Russia has economic problems and Saudi Arabian lifestyle is heavily dependent on oil income. The objective is to kill the US Shale production, which has shown resiliency in the past. So I do not think that tactic will work and they will back on the table soon.

What may keep the prices lower is the COVID-19. With summer coming, people may not want to take long trips in fear of the infection. On the other hand, the heat may kill those little critters. May be it is time for people join me in the Arizona sun, I am not sure the corona virus is going to particularly like over a 100 days of 100 degrees plus temperature.

 

[Harvey]

"The Russians also argued in meetings that there was an opportunity to damage the shale industry in the United States, which had hurt both of the big producers. And Russia has built up a $570 billion fund that Moscow hopes will tide the country through an oil-revenue famine."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/business/energy-environment/oil-opec-saudi-russia.html
sounds like the russians could withstand a price war for a bit.

price of oil doesn't change emission standards in europe either.
that's the bigger driving factor in europe.
maybe just me, but this looks suspicious.
mbs and putin. both impotus allies.
something doesn't look right about this.
if impotus wades in and fixes this, it was a re-election scam.

 

[bwilson4web]

The equipment gets stored; the oil in the shale remains, and; the drillers get other jobs pending hiring picking up again.

Bob Wilson

 

[Harvey]

"The Russians also argued in meetings that there was an opportunity to damage the shale industry in the United States, which had hurt both of the big producers. And Russia has built up a $570 billion fund that Moscow hopes will tide the country through an oil-revenue famine."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/business/energy-environment/oil-opec-saudi-russia.html
sounds like the russians could withstand a price war for a bit.

price of oil doesn't change emission standards in europe either.
that's the bigger driving factor in europe.
maybe just me, but this looks suspicious.
mbs and putin. both impotus allies.
something doesn't look right about this.
if impotus wades in and fixes this, it was a re-election scam.

i knew it. there's impotus now announcing SA and russia will come to a truce.
although covid will still drag prices lower as reserves pile up to capacity.

 

[cmwade77]

I think 2021 will be the magic year as everyone has seen how clean our air can be with fewer cars on the road, but they still need cars and we now have affordable long range EVs.

 

[SouthernDude]

I think 2021 will be the magic year as everyone has seen how clean our air can be with fewer cars on the road, but they still need cars and we now have affordable long range EVs.

2021 will not be the magic year. There isn’t enough infrastructure to convince people yet and new EV car prices are a bit too high. We may see another decline in battery pack prices. This helps, but I don’t think that it will happen soon enough to make 2021 a flagship year.

 

[cmwade77]

2021 will not be the magic year. There isn’t enough infrastructure to convince people yet and new EV car prices are a bit too high. We may see another decline in battery pack prices. This helps, but I don’t think that it will happen soon enough to make 2021 a flagship year.

Considering that you can literally go from coast to coast in something like the Kona completely on quick chargers, the infrastructure is there now. Add in the ability to filter hotels.com to only show hotels with charging stations and it is literally no issue any more. I looked up a road trip we did recently in our CMAX and did a comparison, we literally stopped almost everywhere that it suggested for charging the Kona in order to use the bathroom and get food, meaning we literally would have spent the same amount of time driving and charging while eating, as we did driving and eating. And we would have saved $150 over the cost of gas on an almost 5,000 mile round trip.

So, no, I don't buy into the infrastructure isn't there and I bought the Kona used for about the same as what was being asked for a gas powered Kona, but even if you are going to buy new, I just found a whole mess of programs in California that if you are low enough income (for a household of two people, under $68,000 or so and it looks to be based on AGI) and replacing a gas powered vehicle, you can end up taking around $20,000 (a bit less for used) between state and federal programs and rebates and if you live in an SCE area, take another $1,000 in rebates. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, we make more than that, so we didn't get as much, but even buying used, we are able to get some rebates, making it very affordable.

I am also seeing more and more people buying electric cars here, with EVs becoming more and more scarce over the past few months, new and used. I mean literally, dealerships get an EV and it is sold within 2 days. So, I think we are going to see much more rapid adoption.

 

[SouthernDude]

Considering that you can literally go from coast to coast in something like the Kona completely on quick chargers, the infrastructure is there now. Add in the ability to filter hotels.com to only show hotels with charging stations and it is literally no issue any more. I looked up a road trip we did recently in our CMAX and did a comparison, we literally stopped almost everywhere that it suggested for charging the Kona in order to use the bathroom and get food, meaning we literally would have spent the same amount of time driving and charging while eating, as we did driving and eating. And we would have saved $150 over the cost of gas on an almost 5,000 mile round trip.

So, no, I don't buy into the infrastructure isn't there and I bought the Kona used for about the same as what was being asked for a gas powered Kona, but even if you are going to buy new, I just found a whole mess of programs in California that if you are low enough income (for a household of two people, under $68,000 or so and it looks to be based on AGI) and replacing a gas powered vehicle, you can end up taking around $20,000 (a bit less for used) between state and federal programs and rebates and if you live in an SCE area, take another $1,000 in rebates. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, we make more than that, so we didn't get as much, but even buying used, we are able to get some rebates, making it very affordable.

You can drive across the country in select routes - that’s not the same as being able to easily do regional driving. There are large swaths of the country that barely have any charging infrastructure coverage. Sure it improves every year, but it’s not going to be convincing enough for the majority of drivers by 2021. Let me put it this way: if you have to plan a route based on charger availability, then there’s not enough infrastructure to make the majority of drivers comfortable. It’s that way with just about everyone I speak to about EVs.

Rebates like that almost always get cut once the program gets too expensive, so they will get cut when sales drastically increase. Also, not all states have the same rebate programs either. It’s just better for the cars themselves to get cheaper rather than rely on government support.

 

[Paul K]

Yogi Berra is quoted as saying:"Forecasting is very difficult because it involves the future", so it's hard to know how things will pan out. While much emphasis has been placed on electricity being cheaper than fossil fuels there seems to be less notice of how superior EVs are for local stop and go. For both personal and local
business it means not wearing out brakes early. And the air quality benefits as well although you can't pin that up on a balance sheet.

Another factor that will speed adoption will be those higher income earners who will in trade their 4 year old or less vehicles because they just gotta have the latest thing and can afford it. Bully for them. It will make lower cost EVs available to those of lesser means to "take a chance" on an EV as a gofer vehicle. Once they
realize how good they are they'll be hooked I'm sure.

 

[cmwade77]

Yogi Berra is quoted as saying:"Forecasting is very difficult because it involves the future", so it's hard to know how things will pan out. While much emphasis has been placed on electricity being cheaper than fossil fuels there seems to be less notice of how superior EVs are for local stop and go. For both personal and local
business it means not wearing out brakes early. And the air quality benefits as well although you can't pin that up on a balance sheet.

Another factor that will speed adoption will be those higher income earners who will in trade their 4 year old or less vehicles because they just gotta have the latest thing and can afford it. Bully for them. It will make lower cost EVs available to those of lesser means to "take a chance" on an EV as a gofer vehicle. Once they
realize how good they are they'll be hooked I'm sure.

Definitely don't underestimate used vehicle sales....I just traded in my 2013 Nissan Leaf that we bought used for about $6,000 for an used 2019 Hyundai Kona Electric because once I got the leaf, I was hooked, in the end I needed a larger range and my wife had a hard time driving the leaf, she is fine in the Kona. I think someone will probably be able to buy my used leaf for around $3500 to $4000.