Who could compete with Tesla?
In the short term, nobody. Nobody but Tesla and BYD have access to the level of battery supply needed for even one single high-volume production of long-range BEVs. BYD is located in China, and at least so far, they have not demonstrated the ability to produce cars up to the very demanding standard of the North American or European new car markets.
Long-term... Well, this is a very broad question. What is meant by "compete"? Whether or not any individual Plug-in EV (PEV) truly competes with Tesla is a matter of subjective opinion, not fact. Some think the Jaguar I-Pace does compete with Tesla on quality (altho obviously not quantity). Others say it's a good first effort from Jaguar, but misses being a true Tesla competitor in several areas.
Long-term, I wouldn't count out VW. It's rather difficult to determine VW's level of commitment to building and selling long-range PEVs in large numbers, but I get the impression -- again, this is subjective opinion rather than objective fact -- I get the impression that buried in the ongoing snowstorm of vaporware that VW constantly churns out about how it's going to start making and selling PEVs in large numbers, is a kernel of truth. If there is any truth to the widely reported claims that VW has committed to spending $48 billion (!!) over the next few years on battery supply, then that indicates a very strong commitment indeed to building and selling PEVs in large numbers. That would dwarf the amount of money that Tesla has spent and will be spending in the near term; Tesla's entire spending on making and selling BEVs, not just the amount Tesla has spent on buying batteries and in building Gigafactory 1!
Long-term, just about any of the leading legacy gasmobile makers might challenge Tesla. It's going to take more than a decade for the market to switch from mostly gasmobiles to mostly PEVs. That's a long time for legacy auto makers to realize their only hope for long-term survival is to abandon making almost all gasmobiles in favor of making almost all PEVs. Looking at past disruptive tech revolutions, it's very likely that some current market leaders will fail and be tossed into the wastebin of history; but it's also very likely that some current market leaders will survive the transition.
Also, looking at past disruptive tech revolutions, odds are that one or more new startups are going to emerge to challenge Tesla's lead. Where will Rivian be in another 5 years? Rivian in 2023 may look a lot like Tesla in 2012 or possibly even Tesla in 2015!
Of the other current EV startups, I don't see much potential to rival Tesla. I hope that Bollinger and Workhorse are successful with their PEVs, but it looks like they are aiming only for niche markets, not the mainstream market which Tesla is busily gobbling up.
Also, long-term, I expect BYD and possibly other Chinese auto makers to start selling low-priced BEVs outside China, probably first in countries with emerging industry and low safety standards, such as India; but later, eventually, in Europe and the U.S. As with Japanese auto makers in the late 1970s and early 1980s, I expect the initial entries to be of such poor quality as to be sneered at. Chinese auto makers will be aiming at the bottom end of the PEV market -- probably the BEV market, since engineering and building well-designed PHEVs is somewhat harder. But just as with those Japanese auto makers, I expect the Chinese auto makers to rapidly improve quality over several years, to the point that they will be fully competitive with non-Tesla PEVs being sold in the U.S. and in Europe.
But meantime... Tesla won't be sitting on its hands! Tesla is a rapidly moving target in terms of EV quality. Aim for where Tesla is now, and you get a car that is at least 5 years behind where Tesla is when your car comes to market. Just like the I-Pace.
Now, that's not to say other auto makers will never be able to compete with Tesla. "Never" is a long time! Circa 1910, it looked like no other auto maker would ever compete with Ford and its Model T. Yet Ford didn't keep its near-monopoly for more than about 10 years. According to Wikipedia, the Model T "was so successful Ford did not purchase any advertising between 1917 and 1923; instead, the Model T became so famous, people considered it a norm."
But Ford sat on its hands and refused to improve the Model T; Henry Ford even famously refused to make the Model T in any other color but black. If Tesla ever starts sitting on its hands the way Ford did from (very roughly) about 1914 to 1922, then we can expect that Tesla will similarly lose much of whatever market share that I expect it to capture in the next 5 to 10 years.
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@Bob Wilson: This is an interesting discussion! Thanks for starting it.
