What to believe now?

Puppethead said:
Remove battery capacity. High 200 to 300+ mile range is overkill for EVs, even if Americans won't accept that.

The base Model 3 with 360 mile range seems to be just under $30,000 (per tesla.com/model3) so it's almost competitive as a lower-cost vehicle. Drop 150 miles range worth of batteries and that could be quite an affordable option. Ford charges about $10,000 for their F-150 Lightning "extended range" option to go from 230 miles to 320 miles range.
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300 mile range is not overkill for some people, depending on where you live or what you use the vehicle for. Myself, I live on an island and 250 mi range will take me round-trip to literally anywhere I can drive, with a bit left over for side trips and margin of error. But if you live in much of the western U.S. mainland, you may well have a drive of hundreds of miles to visit your in-laws/ex-wife and kids/specialist doctor/whatever. Until EV charging is as fast, reliable and easy as filling your gas tank, people will not want to make multiple stops to recharge in a day's driving.

Of course, smaller and lighter EVs can have good range without a massive battery (one reason I love my 2020 Kona), and will generally cost less, too. Seems like a win-win.
 
Bruce M. said:
But if you live in much of the western U.S. mainland, you may well have a drive of hundreds of miles to visit your in-laws/ex-wife and kids/specialist doctor/whatever.
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For the vast majority of people this is a myth for daily driving. Most people drive far less than 100 miles per day. I personally drive almost 100 miles per day in my MINI Cooper SE which has an official range of only 110 miles. But the point is not to eliminate high-range EVs but to sell usable, affordable EVs to attract more buyers. Lowering the range seems like an obvious way to trim cost.
 
Puppethead said:
For the vast majority of people this is a myth for daily driving. Most people drive far less than 100 miles per day. I personally drive almost 100 miles per day in my MINI Cooper SE which has an official range of only 110 miles. But the point is not to eliminate high-range EVs but to sell usable, affordable EVs to attract more buyers. Lowering the range seems like an obvious way to trim cost.
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What people drive in a normal day is a red herring. People's daily driving isn't the issue and never has been. Needing to make a trip of several hundred miles several times a year is far from rare: I used to do it when I lived in San Francisco and my parents lived near Los Angeles. A lot of people do that for all sorts of reasons, and they're not going to buy a car that makes it a pain the behind takes a couple hours longer than they're used to. Yes, a lot of people can use a shorter-range EV that's smaller and cheaper, and I'm currently one of them (and my next vehicle will likely be a Kia EV3), but lots of people aren't like us, and they buy cars.
 
Bruce M. said:
Until EV charging is as fast, reliable and easy as filling your gas tank, people will not want to make multiple stops to recharge in a day's driving.
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I bought a used 2017 BMW i3-REx for $15,000 a couple of years ago, 106 mi EV range and 88 mi gas. I drove it 800 miles from Florida to Huntsville to: (1) reduce battery degradation of my Tesla, and (2) goin' for groceries around town. So far, it has worked out great. But I traded in a 2017 Prius Prime, 25 mi EV, for the 240 mi Tesla.

Growing older, now 74 years, I've found more frequent biology breaks are a blessing. Charging 15-30 minutes for 2-3 hour driving segments matches my biology and car charging requirements. Best of all, the fast DC charging density is more than twice what I had in 2019 and still growing.

Puppethead said:
Most people drive far less than 100 miles per day. I personally drive almost 100 miles per day in my MINI Cooper SE which has an official range of only 110 miles. But the point is not to eliminate high-range EVs but to sell usable, affordable EVs to attract more buyers. Lowering the range seems like an obvious way to trim cost.
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My first 2014 BMW i3-REx had only a 72 mi EV range. The 2017 BMW i3-REx has 106 miles and easily meets my daily driving requirements. This includes a round trip to the rifle range.

Bob Wilson
 
R P said:
Well, based on this article everyone except Hyundai have scaled back their EV production plans. Tesla, if they get their act together, could profit from this, if most of their competitors (in the US) will be selling less BEVs.
https://insideevs.com/news/734616/automaker-ev-targets-bnef-study/
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Unfortunately, Elon the Terrible has so tarnished Tesla's image that sales are tanking in California, easily the largest U.S. EV market. From The Hollywood Reporter (which, of course, largely focuses on people in entertainment ditching their Teslas, but has other interesting tidbits like this):

This decline can be correlated with Musk's recent rightward turn and related online antics. "Rejection of Tesla recently spiked and continues among Democrats. They want nothing to do with Tesla," says Alexander Edwards, president of Strategic Vision, a Southern California-based consultancy that conducts hundreds of thousands of in-depth psychographic surveys with new car buyers annually. "And there are no hidden Republicans that are buying these. That just doesn't exist."

Edwards cites recent proprietary survey data demonstrating that the number of potential new car buyers who would consider a Tesla for their next purchase fell by nearly half since 2022, and the number who would definitely not consider a Tesla increased by nearly two-thirds, with the steepest declines occurring this summer as Musk cozied up to Trump. "And those numbers are still moving in that negative direction," he adds.
 
I see that TSLA has been on a pretty good ride up these last couple weeks. I wonder if that has to do with the other manufacturers cutting back their EV production plans. That would bode well for Tesla's sales prospects going forward. And esp so, if there are new models coming.

I am not so sure Musk's political and other views greatly affect sales. While people may say otherwise, in the end, they will buy based on the product and how it is priced relative to the competition. Tesla's biggest problem right now is their current cars are long in the tooth compared to some of the competition. But when they keep dropping the price, people still keep buying.

But yes, have heard that Californians aren't buying Tesla because of Musk. So what are they buying instead? Or is it just a good excuse to not buy anything for other reasons, or maybe try another brand.
 
R P said:
I see that TSLA has been on a pretty good ride up these last couple weeks. I wonder if that has to do with the other manufacturers cutting back their EV production plans. That would bode well for Tesla's sales prospects going forward. And esp so, if there are new models coming.

I am not so sure Musk's political and other views greatly affect sales. While people may say otherwise, in the end, they will buy based on the product and how it is priced relative to the competition. Tesla's biggest problem right now is their current cars are long in the tooth compared to some of the competition. But when they keep dropping the price, people still keep buying.

But yes, have heard that Californians aren't buying Tesla because of Musk. So what are they buying instead? Or is it just a good excuse to not buy anything for other reasons, or maybe try another brand.
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I don't know what's selling in California now, but here in Hawaii -- another liberal leaning state where EV sales have been strong -- I have noticed a definite evolution in the EV population since I arrived here in January 2022. Back then, an overwhelming majority of EVS on the road were Teslas, and most of the rest were Bolts and Leafs.

Now, though Tesla still seem to be the most common, it's not clear majority, at least in my area. And I see quite a few assorted Fords, Hyundais, Kias, Rivians and the Toyota/Subaru twins. I have yet to see any of the GM Ultium vehicles. It wouldn't surprise me to see a similar pattern in California, though I don't know.
 
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Bruce M. said:
I don't know what's selling in California now, but here in Hawaii -- another liberal leaning state where EV sales have been strong -- I have noticed a definite evolution in the EV population since I arrived here in January 2022. Back then, an overwhelming majority of EVS on the road were Teslas, and most of the rest were Bolts and Leafs.

Now, though Tesla still seem to be the most common, it's not clear majority, at least in my area. And I see quite a few assorted Fords, Hyundais, Kias, Rivians and the Toyota/Subaru twins. I have yet to see any of the GM Ultium vehicles. It wouldn't surprise me to see a similar pattern in California, though I don't know.
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Sounds similar to here in BC. Tesla was very dominant and still is. But a lot more other EV brands on the road now, too, esp Hyundais, mostly Konas and Ioniq 5s and some of the Kias. I have the I6, but it is not very common here. Also see a lot more F150 Lightnings now.
 
R P said:
Well, based on this article everyone except Hyundai have scaled back their EV production plans. Tesla, if they get their act together, could profit from this, if most of their competitors (in the US) will be selling less BEVs.
https://insideevs.com/news/734616/automaker-ev-targets-bnef-study/
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I don't think other companies scaling back on EV production will help Tesla. They're scaling back on plans because the EV demand is not growing like they thought it would. Anyone who wants a non-Tesla EV will be able to find what they want. Q3 Tesla reports will be very interesting. The anti-Elon sentiment is real, and Tesla is just not innovating like they were. I think they're in for a bad quarter and I don't think they have much room left for further price cuts.
 
R P said:
Here is the typical response on ICE forums about electric cars. And I see/hear that sentiment in the media all the time, too. We are not winning the anti-EV propaganda wars.
https://www.subaruxvforum.com/threads/subaru-eletric.189576/?post_id=2203789#post-2203789
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It looks like only members of that forum can read it, but I do think the anti-EV propaganda (much of it garbage, but persuasive if your knowledge is limited) is having an effect. That said, the other day InsideEVs.com reported preliminary info about GM July and August sales (they only issue official reports quarterly) that looked quite good. GM now has lots of EVs in different flavors and price points, and that may be making a difference.
 
Bruce M. said:
It looks like only members of that forum can read it, but I do think the anti-EV propaganda (much of it garbage, but persuasive if your knowledge is limited) is having an effect. That said, the other day InsideEVs.com reported preliminary info about GM July and August sales (they only issue official reports quarterly) that looked quite good. GM now has lots of EVs in different flavors and price points, and that may be making a difference.
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Oh, I thought non-members could still read it. It is from the Crosstrek forum which I used to own and still check the forum occasionally. But I stay out of the EV debates (no convincing those guys). Anyway here is the posting content, and was followed by more of the same. And like I said, I see it everywhere, in forums, other media. When everyone says it people assume it must be true. It is not like there aren't issues with EVs. We know them well, but it is not like they say or near as bad. Just need to get the right EV for your purposes. I have two BEVs (Ioniq 6 and Solterra) and no ICE car, and they meet all my needs/wants very well.

Infrastructure/charging stations are not readily available.
Where do you think majority of this nation's electricity comes from? Not from solar or wind farms...
Electric vehicles (ie their batteries) in colder climates do not fair well. Do not hold the charge as well nor hold as much charge.
Charging times are too long. Even for "quick charges".
Cost of ownership is not necessarily cheaper. Did you ever price out a set of tires for an EV vs. an ICE vehicle?? Almost triple the price for those heavy low rolling resistant tires.
Cost of charging a vehicle IS NOT cheaper vs. MPG for fuel.
Added cost for installing a charging station at your residence/garage.
Added cost for insurance is much higher for EV.
Not eco friendly as main stream portrays. Cleaner air...sure. But strip mining of battery materials and then proper disposal of depleted batteries.
Not as easy to repair yourself, dependent on trained technicians for even simple repairs.

I'll pass
 
Well, GM had a great quarter, with Blazer sales growing steadily, the Equinox off to a roaring start and the Lyriq continuing to sell well. Hyundai was off a bit and Kia up a bit, thanks to the EV9 (though we never get Kona and Niro EV sales broken out from their ICE versions). Both Nissan EVs are up, but neither is selling in immense volume. Tesla's numbers aren't out yet, and I don't think Ford's are either -- at least I haven't seen them. Unless Tesla takes a big hit, it'll be an okay quarter but not a spectacular one, though it should be noted that most companies' overall sales were down.
 
Bruce M. said:
Well, GM had a great quarter, with Blazer sales growing steadily, the Equinox off to a roaring start and the Lyriq continuing to sell well. Hyundai was off a bit and Kia up a bit, thanks to the EV9 (though we never get Kona and Niro EV sales broken out from their ICE versions). Both Nissan EVs are up, but neither is selling in immense volume. Tesla's numbers aren't out yet, and I don't think Ford's are either -- at least I haven't seen them. Unless Tesla takes a big hit, it'll be an okay quarter but not a spectacular one, though it should be noted that most companies' overall sales were down.
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Tesla beat estimates, but down from last year, and seemed to have missed the whisper numbers. Stock is down today.
 
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