Tesla stock price

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Great specs but don’t forget there is a 25% import tax (thanks Donald). Then add the State registration and tag fees ($225 thanks to ALAC anti-EV legislation.) It still has to fill the local demand and pass our safety testing. So far, no evidence Tesla will license Full Self Driving.

There are other risks like their first car but advantages too.

I wish them well.

Bob Wilson
 
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I guess no surprise today with the miss on deliveries. The next big event will be 1st qtr results on or around Apr 17 -19. If there is a big hit on margins with lower car prices combined with higher fixed costs due to lower utilization/productivity of their production capacity. That could be the BIG hit on the stock price. Musk often doesn't do well on conf calls when he is on the defensive.
 
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As long as there is an operational profit, I'll be happy. If a loss, I'll want to see increased CAPX spending. Finally, cash available.

Bob Wilson
 
Well, the bears are making their presence known again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/tesla-bear-says-elon-musks-ev-maker-will-go-bust-stock-worth-14.html

I think the key for Musk is getting that new $25,000 EV out ASAP. Forget about FSD, or at least don't waste too many resources on it. Get back to fundamentals with cap-ex and put your money towards more improved productivity with manufacturing and lowering the cost structure. Need to keep all those high capacity production facilities running at full speed.
 
I would rather see 'lessons learned' to make lower trim versions of the existing models. Back of the envelope suggests a $30,000 Model 3 is achievable just applying techniques already demonstrated on the Cybertruck. Better still, low trim version of the Model Y, Model X, and Model S.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
I would rather see 'lessons learned' to make lower trim versions of the existing models. Back of the envelope suggests a $30,000 Model 3 is achievable just applying techniques already demonstrated on the Cybertruck. Better still, low trim version of the Model Y, Model X, and Model S.

Bob Wilson
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They were working on a revolutionary new manufacturing process for the M2, which instead of a single assembly line, will use multiple parallel sub assemblies that would come together at the end.
https://www.hagerty.com/media/news/tesla-to-reinvent-production-lines-with-model-2/
And maybe they could put to work more of those new robots they are inventing to gain higher productivity and further lower production costs. I think that is where the battle will be, with the Chinese.
 
Probably best to share what Elon posted:

The full text of the email is below:

Over the years, we have grown rapidly with multiple factories scaling around the globe. With this rapid growth there has been duplication of roles and job functions in certain areas. As we prepare the company for our next phase of growth, it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity.

As part of this effort, we have done a thorough review of the organization and made the difficult decision to reduce our headcount by more than 10% globally. There is nothing I hate more, but it must be done. This will enable us to be lean, innovative and hungry for the next growth phase cycle.

I would like to thank everyone who is departing Tesla for their hard work over the years. I’m deeply grateful for your many contributions to our mission and we wish you well in your future opportunities. It is very difficult to say goodbye.

For those remaining, I would like to thank you in advance for the difficult job that remains ahead. We are developing some of the most revolutionary technologies in auto, energy and artificial intelligence. As we prepare the company for the next phase of growth, your resolve will make a huge difference in getting us there.

Thanks,
Elon​
Additionally there are reports that some employees have already been locked out of system access.
​
Elon's purchase of Twitter was quick and cleaned house. The over paid, under performing, pampered Twitter herd was culled quickly. As for me, Twitter had no value before Musk and hasn't changed since. But the technically, it is 'less bad.'

Bob Wilson​
 
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Decades ago, when I got laid off by phone, I considered my boss a coward. This is worse:

Tesla job cuts: workers in U.S. and China, 'some really good players too'
Some who were laid off reportedly learned of it when their badges didn't scan
 
Elon has had employees load up and walk off with trade secrets. For example new hires at Rivian.

Bob Wilson
 
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After the Cybertruck, this could be Musk's 2nd biggest mistake.
https://insideevs.com/news/716287/tesla-robotaxi-liability-unknown-criticalmaterials/
Even if it works, how can it be implemented? Who is going to accept the liability for a crash? And how is he going to get customers to pay for it, to provide sufficient revenues to rescue the business.

And expect more of this...
https://insideevs.com/news/716265/level-3-cars-ban-british-columbia-canada/

I still say he should go all out on the M2, and not be distracted or try to fool investors with more pie in the sky announcements.
 
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R P said:
I still say he should go all out on the M2, and not be distracted or try to fool investors with more pie in the sky announcements.
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Reading a review of the tiny $32,500 Fiat 500e, I wondered how Tesla or any other company could possibly offer a $25K EV.
 
I remember back in 2017-2018, Elon Musk explained that if Tesla had come out with a cheap, low margin EV, they would have gone bankrupt and out of business. There would be no Model 3 or subsequent Model Y. A company has to make money, be profitable to stay in business.

If others are able to make cheap EVs and a profit, good on them. In about a week, we'll see the Q1 2024 financials which should explain why 14% of the staff had to leave for the good of Tesla. Given a 20% reduction in deliveries, the 14% reduction might not have been enough.

LATE THOUGHT:

Many fired Tesla employees held stock. They'll be selling it soon, making the shares even more affordable.

Bob Wilson
 
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TSLA stock after the bell today all depends on what Musk says in the conf call about the Robotaxi and Model 2 plans. Could go either way...
 
I would add, Full Self Driving (FSD.)

My expectation is Tesla has been holding off on booking some profits from earlier sales. With the technical improvements of the latest release, this is likely to be a profit taken in either Q1 or Q2. Perhaps 'small change', we'll soon learn.

Bob Wilson

ps. Posting from a motel room in Nashville which I'll describe in a technical post.
 
I listened to the audio and heard the profit margin is still over 18%. The rest sounded good but I'll wait for the transcript and SEC filings. Somethings are best studied in quiet time.

Bob Wilson
 
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