Noticed that GM's plans with Nikola now include releasing the "TRE" 100% BEV semi at the end of next year and producing a hydrogen prototype that can be tested by the end of next year. These are nothing but their typical claims that they will be able to compete with Tesla- which they never meet. The hydrogen is an obvious dead end even with the help of BOSCH that will never come to anything. The battery electric truck clearly won't be ready but what GMs whole strategy is to say that in theory it may have something ready to compete with Tesla. It has never successfully competed with Tesla on anything, but these are the lies it tells to string Wall St. along. And between now and GM's coming bankruptcy that isn't going to change.
If the Tesla Semi is lighter than 17,000lbs than that will just add to the plus in 600 plus miles because they have to meet a minimum weight for stopping power. If they add 11kwh of solar panels to the top of a trailer that might add another 100kwh a day or another 75 miles. Regardless based on estimates below it could far exceed 600 miles on a single charge and at launch disrupt all segments of the semi industry including the longest hauls. Regardless I don' t think it will be possible to sell ICE semis after it launches. Tesla however up to this point has never said that but I think they always knew because even with a 600 mile range 1200 mile straight hauls cease to make economic sense. Quite certain the Semi will be out late next year.
Based on what we saw at Battery Day these are my guesses.
6.43 oz per 4680 cell
86.50 watts per cell
$4.45 per cell
5.14 cents a watt
800kwh battery
3722lbs pack weight (no actual pack)
9248 cells required
$41153 pack cost
800lbs for 4 Model 3 motors
4500lbs for motor and battery total
494 kg/kwh pk level (pk has neg weight- very funning about approaching 400wh/kg)
1.33 watts a mile under full 80k load
7 cents a kwh (Tesla quoted rate)
$56 to take 80k rig 600 miles
$112 to take 80k rig 1200 miles
Based on https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-620-april-26-2010-class-8-truck-tractor-weight-component guessing there may be about 5500lbs of missing weight or enough to fit another battery pack and then some. Like another 886 miles or 1486 miles total for another 61k or about $102k in total batteries. Solar on the trailer could bring it to 1561 miles. Could be way way off but it doesn't matter because the economics of even 600 miles will end even 1200 plus mile long haul trucking- Tesla isn't aiming at 80% of the market its 100% of the market.
These will be hugely profitable- fat margins on construction. Hope they get rigid wire harness ready in time. Million mile is clearly already resolved. My guess is almost 3 years ago when they showed the semi they had the full truck design including cast aluminum chassis- frame and structural member battery pack and they also had the 4680 cell design. They have been testing prototype semis largely based on this specification since the unveil almost 3 years ago but I think they have had the production quality cells in the Semis for 5 months now. They are just waiting for the yield to come up on the 4680s but everything is done. They can build the powertrain of this truck for under 45K, might be able to include self-driving hardware and the power train under 50K. Still leaves 130K to fit margin. Right now these would cut a big fuel bill down to about 17% of current consumption and eliminate it maintenance or cut 11k in maintenance costs per year.
Average Diesel Semi in the US uses per year about $52833 on diesel and $15,000 on maintenance so that's about $67,833 to run and Tesla Semi would only be about (not including likely much cheaper Tesla insurance) $8981 for charging and $4K (just tires) for maintenance about 13K per year to run saving about 53K a year in operating costs and paying itself off in savings in about 3.4 years. Now the savings could be greater still. You see even a year ago 8 Minute Energy using battery backed utility solar in CA was offering 1.1 cent a kwh. It is probably down to below one cent now and you can definitely beat utility scale prices with small scale roof top if you do it right and in the future roof top will be invincible setting a ceiling for utility scale. We have to void natural gas utility contracts and force the rates down anyway.
No other kind of big rig will be sold after these are introduced late next year. GM sure as hell won't have anything that competes nor will any other maker. I think Daimler's truck business goes under- and they deserve it for promoting the stupid hydrogen delusion. I am strongly of the opinion that any company that has an in earnest hydrogen program has total idiot management and they won't be around except through state bailout but even they continue they hydrogen it will be multiple state bailouts. All these other delusions from synth fuels (save for rockets) and bio fuels- all that stuff is dead no amount of intervention can ever rescue it. I also think Hindenburg (the title is telling) and the fate of Nikola means they won't even be able to run their usual bs anymore about it. Lobbying, elections, not even wars can reverse this. It is over and time for them to eat their much deserved losses.
If the Tesla Semi is lighter than 17,000lbs than that will just add to the plus in 600 plus miles because they have to meet a minimum weight for stopping power. If they add 11kwh of solar panels to the top of a trailer that might add another 100kwh a day or another 75 miles. Regardless based on estimates below it could far exceed 600 miles on a single charge and at launch disrupt all segments of the semi industry including the longest hauls. Regardless I don' t think it will be possible to sell ICE semis after it launches. Tesla however up to this point has never said that but I think they always knew because even with a 600 mile range 1200 mile straight hauls cease to make economic sense. Quite certain the Semi will be out late next year.
Based on what we saw at Battery Day these are my guesses.
6.43 oz per 4680 cell
86.50 watts per cell
$4.45 per cell
5.14 cents a watt
800kwh battery
3722lbs pack weight (no actual pack)
9248 cells required
$41153 pack cost
800lbs for 4 Model 3 motors
4500lbs for motor and battery total
494 kg/kwh pk level (pk has neg weight- very funning about approaching 400wh/kg)
1.33 watts a mile under full 80k load
7 cents a kwh (Tesla quoted rate)
$56 to take 80k rig 600 miles
$112 to take 80k rig 1200 miles
Based on https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-620-april-26-2010-class-8-truck-tractor-weight-component guessing there may be about 5500lbs of missing weight or enough to fit another battery pack and then some. Like another 886 miles or 1486 miles total for another 61k or about $102k in total batteries. Solar on the trailer could bring it to 1561 miles. Could be way way off but it doesn't matter because the economics of even 600 miles will end even 1200 plus mile long haul trucking- Tesla isn't aiming at 80% of the market its 100% of the market.
These will be hugely profitable- fat margins on construction. Hope they get rigid wire harness ready in time. Million mile is clearly already resolved. My guess is almost 3 years ago when they showed the semi they had the full truck design including cast aluminum chassis- frame and structural member battery pack and they also had the 4680 cell design. They have been testing prototype semis largely based on this specification since the unveil almost 3 years ago but I think they have had the production quality cells in the Semis for 5 months now. They are just waiting for the yield to come up on the 4680s but everything is done. They can build the powertrain of this truck for under 45K, might be able to include self-driving hardware and the power train under 50K. Still leaves 130K to fit margin. Right now these would cut a big fuel bill down to about 17% of current consumption and eliminate it maintenance or cut 11k in maintenance costs per year.
Average Diesel Semi in the US uses per year about $52833 on diesel and $15,000 on maintenance so that's about $67,833 to run and Tesla Semi would only be about (not including likely much cheaper Tesla insurance) $8981 for charging and $4K (just tires) for maintenance about 13K per year to run saving about 53K a year in operating costs and paying itself off in savings in about 3.4 years. Now the savings could be greater still. You see even a year ago 8 Minute Energy using battery backed utility solar in CA was offering 1.1 cent a kwh. It is probably down to below one cent now and you can definitely beat utility scale prices with small scale roof top if you do it right and in the future roof top will be invincible setting a ceiling for utility scale. We have to void natural gas utility contracts and force the rates down anyway.
No other kind of big rig will be sold after these are introduced late next year. GM sure as hell won't have anything that competes nor will any other maker. I think Daimler's truck business goes under- and they deserve it for promoting the stupid hydrogen delusion. I am strongly of the opinion that any company that has an in earnest hydrogen program has total idiot management and they won't be around except through state bailout but even they continue they hydrogen it will be multiple state bailouts. All these other delusions from synth fuels (save for rockets) and bio fuels- all that stuff is dead no amount of intervention can ever rescue it. I also think Hindenburg (the title is telling) and the fate of Nikola means they won't even be able to run their usual bs anymore about it. Lobbying, elections, not even wars can reverse this. It is over and time for them to eat their much deserved losses.
. Batteries work fine for smoothing out daily fluctuations and peaks, but not for long term storage.