Musk said Tesla is aiming to sell 100k semis a year. Presumably most of those or all of them will be in the US initially. Where did that number come from? It came from Freightliner's annual sales numbers in the US as he producer of the lion's share of ICE semis. Tesla chose this number because Tesla is aiming to be the number one Semi producer in the US. Tesla seems to aim to be #1 in all of its markets. For instance it would be the best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. It has been the best auto stock of the last decade.
Let us look at a non hypothetical example of what happens when Tesla takes on a new market. The BMW 3 Series is a prime example. Since 2014 BMW's sales of its 3 Series is down 60% and that is due to one thing: Tesla. I took a look a BMW's perineal excuse that its SUVs are making up the difference. But that isn't even a laughable excuse because its X series sales compared to its 3 series is nominal, and Kruger made that excuse and still got booted. What we see is that the Model X and the Model S along with the anticipation of the Model 3 and then the reality of the Model 3 have knocked down BMW's sales that much since 2014.
So what happens when Tesla quickly adds 100K a year Semis to the Semi market in the US in a very short order. What happens when those Semis cost 50% less per mile and produce double the earnings of Freightliner's ICE vehicles for their owner operators? Answer: 60% or greater reduction in Freightliner sales in less than 5 years. Freightliner isn't even at the compliance level with its electric trucks. Tesla is no longer capital constrained and we saw how quick the Giga factory 3 went from ground breaking to production (11 months) and we are aware that Model Y appears to have been sped up successfully by 1.5 years. To destroy the competition Tesla doesn't have to produce a Model 3's amount of units. The Semi is in the Model S and Model X range of units. The charger infrastructure is easiest of all- its totally trivial to add a mega charger to a truck depot- it is easier than adding 4 super chargers and some megas will naturally go in interstate super charger stations.
The Tesla Semi's advantage against ICE semis is far greater than the advantage the Model 3 had against the BMW 3 Series. So I'll make a prediction: Freightliner will have a greater than 60% sales reduction by 2025. Can't give investment advice but shorting ICE has to be looking appealing. This is a really easy prediction because Tesla can do way way more than the Semi to damage the revenue of ICE semi makers- other low hanging tech Tesla will surely leverage along the way to making their logistic products more economical than rail could easily increase operator income by 4x- at least on a cost per mile basis- but that is the basis in that industry.
Anticipate there will be some dumb hydrogen quips. Hydrogen is now as stupid a scam as the attempt to do price per minute only at electric vehicle stations- even attempting that was surely an inchoate crime, a fraud that should have led to consequences beyond CA banning it. Even if hydrogen were viable (which is isn't- its worse per mile than gas) it would have to be made from pure solar or wind or hydro and there is no such thing as excess capacity with battery prices the way they are falling without limit, there is just fossil fuel contracts that need to be voided- for being fraudulent and permanently ridiculously non-competitive. We also need to make sure when someone goes solar the losses to fossil fuel providers can't be passed on to the existing customer base but do result in the necessary and righteous bankruptcy of the fossil fuel con.
Let us look at a non hypothetical example of what happens when Tesla takes on a new market. The BMW 3 Series is a prime example. Since 2014 BMW's sales of its 3 Series is down 60% and that is due to one thing: Tesla. I took a look a BMW's perineal excuse that its SUVs are making up the difference. But that isn't even a laughable excuse because its X series sales compared to its 3 series is nominal, and Kruger made that excuse and still got booted. What we see is that the Model X and the Model S along with the anticipation of the Model 3 and then the reality of the Model 3 have knocked down BMW's sales that much since 2014.
So what happens when Tesla quickly adds 100K a year Semis to the Semi market in the US in a very short order. What happens when those Semis cost 50% less per mile and produce double the earnings of Freightliner's ICE vehicles for their owner operators? Answer: 60% or greater reduction in Freightliner sales in less than 5 years. Freightliner isn't even at the compliance level with its electric trucks. Tesla is no longer capital constrained and we saw how quick the Giga factory 3 went from ground breaking to production (11 months) and we are aware that Model Y appears to have been sped up successfully by 1.5 years. To destroy the competition Tesla doesn't have to produce a Model 3's amount of units. The Semi is in the Model S and Model X range of units. The charger infrastructure is easiest of all- its totally trivial to add a mega charger to a truck depot- it is easier than adding 4 super chargers and some megas will naturally go in interstate super charger stations.
The Tesla Semi's advantage against ICE semis is far greater than the advantage the Model 3 had against the BMW 3 Series. So I'll make a prediction: Freightliner will have a greater than 60% sales reduction by 2025. Can't give investment advice but shorting ICE has to be looking appealing. This is a really easy prediction because Tesla can do way way more than the Semi to damage the revenue of ICE semi makers- other low hanging tech Tesla will surely leverage along the way to making their logistic products more economical than rail could easily increase operator income by 4x- at least on a cost per mile basis- but that is the basis in that industry.
Anticipate there will be some dumb hydrogen quips. Hydrogen is now as stupid a scam as the attempt to do price per minute only at electric vehicle stations- even attempting that was surely an inchoate crime, a fraud that should have led to consequences beyond CA banning it. Even if hydrogen were viable (which is isn't- its worse per mile than gas) it would have to be made from pure solar or wind or hydro and there is no such thing as excess capacity with battery prices the way they are falling without limit, there is just fossil fuel contracts that need to be voided- for being fraudulent and permanently ridiculously non-competitive. We also need to make sure when someone goes solar the losses to fossil fuel providers can't be passed on to the existing customer base but do result in the necessary and righteous bankruptcy of the fossil fuel con.
