Rivian might get billion-dollar investment from Amazon and GM

Roland said:
If cars built today were worn out by the time they had 100,000 miles on them like the cars of the 60s, then buying new would still be important to me. But today's cars are just getting broke in at 100k. Before I retired I was driving 50k miles a year on the average. Now I only drive about 10,000 miles a year combined between the 2, so both of my vehicles sit in the driveway most of the time. My pickup has about 250,000 miles on it and should easily be good for 500,000 more. That should get me well into the 22nd century at 3k miles a year or the next person to get my truck will get a really nice museum piece from the last century! The other vehicle (Chevy Volt right now) does the other 7500 miles. Pretty hard for me to justify too much money sitting out in my driveway, just for 10k miles a year worth of driving. Leasing is actually beginning to look kind of attractive to me. In the past, mileage restrictions have always kept me from doing a lease. Mileage is no longer an issue for me. My truck tires get replaced every 5 years now due to dry rot, instead of tread wear. I'll probably never have to do the brakes on the Chevy Volt since I use "L" exclusively and hardly touch the brakes to slow down. My '14 doesn't have the regen paddles, so it isn't one foot driving, but pretty close for this old lead foot from the 60s muscle cars. The used car market is a much different place than it was in decades past. In the past if you bought a car with 40,000 miles on it, you could plan on major engine trouble from the day you drove it off the lot. ICE engines today are easily good for 300,000 miles. I expect an electric platform to be comparable. That leaves a bunch of very usable and trouble free miles in the middle for the discerning used car buyer. Old people with brand new cars sitting in their driveway die everyday...leaving some really nice gently used cars to choose from.
Now days, if I buy a 3 year old EV or PHEV with an 8 year battery warranty, it's still under full warranty. If I trade it every 3 years, it's still under full warranty when the next driver gets it. That's a long way from the used market even 20 years ago when my F250 was built. Remember when the 12k mile/12 month warranty hit the new car market, like that was a great deal? I doubt the engine in my Volt will ever wear out, only using 40 gallons of gasoline a year like I have averaged so far. Once a year, I have the oil changed and tires get a little air a couple of times a year. That's about it for ongoing maintenance. No fiddling with air mix screws on the carburetor, or choke cable issues. Now I sit in my easy chair and pre-warm my seats and condition the cabin environment from my smart phone, before ever walking out to the driveway.
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New technology is simply amazing. I can hardly believe how far along we have come in the last several years between my last new car buy and this one. Agree entirely on the long lasting nature of EV and combination vehicles. This PHEV I just bought, I really am having a problem seeing to it the ICE is on long enough to get a full warm up. I would guess just driving time considered the electric part is five times more used than the combustion side. And electric motors really they hardly ever wear out. Auxiliary things like batteries do not the motor themselves.
Leasing makes a lot of sense in a practical manner. MY best friends dad, a doc, was the first person I ever heard of leasing back in the sixties. He was very pragmatic and used a car just to transport and did not ever even wash the thing I think, though inside it was meticulously clean. In our crowd people with flash and dash cars, all lived in poor houses and the inverse seemed true as well. WE laughed at them. So he did that. Times have changed. Me, I am a relic and just could not bring myself to lease though it makes practical sense.
With all the tech I bought a additional extension of warranty for 100k miles on everything. With the price of repairs I think this is called for. Hyundai is offering a lifetime guarantee on their battery in their PHEV. As long as you own it, it is nontransferable. Could not find one though, I think there is some sort of a manufacturer problem getting the units made.
I should really just start to redo my pickup. 350 engine and all, a rebuilt would probably be for a song. Maybe that will be my next project.
 
interestedinEV said:
Can they sell a trucks at $75-90K? I guess they can but the question is how much. I will hazard a guess that there is not a large market for trucks at $90K.
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The pickup market in US+Canada is over 3.3M units per year.

I would say the market for $75k+ pickup trucks is well over 200k units per year.

Ford Raptors and Limiteds,Ram Rebels and Limiteds, GMC Denali etc.

Rivian can absolutely sell 20k units per year. Plenty of people in the know know that TCO for BEVs is much cheaper too.
 
Robb Stark said:
The pickup market in US+Canada is over 3.3M units per year.

I would say the market for $75k+ pickup trucks is well over 200k units per year.

Ford Raptors and Limiteds,Ram Rebels and Limiteds, GMC Denali etc.

Rivian can absolutely sell 20k units per year. Plenty of people in the know know that TCO for BEVs is much cheaper too.
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I understand there is a niche there. Here is where things get tricky. Those are high end trucks with a lot of power. Will Rivan have that level of power and cachet (thank you grammar Nazi for keep me correct) ro compete against the likes of Raptor or Denali ? Second, most of the trucks are sold in rural areas and states that are generally lukewarm or less than lukewarm to environment/global warming issues and may not command a premium. Third, there is less charging facilities in those areas so may not be as attractive. Not denying there is a market but unlikely it will be a cakewalk. Competitors were not ready for Tesla, they may not allow Rivian that opportunity. So I a sure Rivian will see their first a few months sell out without a problem. But as they ramp up, things may not be that easy. Again this is all speculation. I have no idea what will happen, but Rivian has their work cut out for them.
 
interestedinEV said:
I understand there is a niche there. Here is where things get tricky. Those are high end trucks with a lot of power. Will Rivan have that level of power and cachet (thank you grammar Nazi for keep me correct) ro compete against the likes of Raptor or Denali ? Second, most of the trucks are sold in rural areas and states that are generally lukewarm or less than lukewarm to environment/global warming issues and may not command a premium. Third, there is less charging facilities in those areas so may not be as attractive. Not denying there is a market but unlikely it will be a cakewalk. Competitors were not ready for Tesla, they may not allow Rivian that opportunity. So I a sure Rivian will see their first a few months sell out without a problem. But as they ramp up, things may not be that easy. Again this is all speculation. I have no idea what will happen, but Rivian has their work cut out for them.
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You are talking about trim packages. That's where every manufacturer makes their profit. Also the pickup truck is the number 1 selling vehicle in California. Ford alone sold more trucks in California than all EVs combined, over 55,000 units last year by Ford alone.
 
Roland said:
You are talking about trim packages. That's where every manufacturer makes their profit.
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So esentially Rivian is competing against the most profitable segment of that markets. Makes sense as new entrant but more likely than not that Ford and others will do something to protect the turn. What the something is I do not know. The empire is going to to try and strike back.
 
interestedinEV said:
So esentially Rivian is competing against the most profitable segment of that markets. Makes sense as new entrant but more likely than not that Ford and others will do something to protect the turn. What the something is I do not know. The empire is going to to try and strike back.
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Yeah, manufacturers don't make money on a stripped down standard cab pickup with vinyl seats. That just cover overhead costs. They make their profit from carpet, leather interior, heated seats, 20" wheels, 4 doors, etc.
Ford has already announced they are coming out with hybrid and full electric versions of the F150 in fairly short order. GM has been saying they will have 22 all electric models out by around 2022. One of those models will likely be a pickup especially since passenger cars are now falling out of favor with the driving public. (in my mostly useless opinion).
 
I can't decide what's more entertaining, watching TV or reading all the baseless and mostly useless speculation on what might be in these forums.

When it happens it happens. Until then...……..
 
Amazon has made lot of investments and strategic bets in retailing, IT technology, cloud computing, media and entertainment, AI etc. companies They may have not made it in the EV market till now. So what? Does not mean that they do not know what they are doing? They have the money (lots of it), they have ability to do due dillegence (lots of it), and they have technology and capabilities in abundance that Rivian can use (AI, cloud computing, brand name, executive talent etc.). Just because they are moving in to this field does not mean they are making a mistake. Or am I missing the whole point.
 
jim said:
Has Amazon invested in a known winner like Tesla?
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Seems rather a complex question (a logical fallacy) to me. It has only been within the last year or so that Tesla could be accurately described as a "known winner" in the financial sense. Yet the stock price has been quite inflated for years. The time to make out like a bandit by investing in Tesla was back in mid-2010 thru mid-2013, when Tesla was still very much a company with a shaky financial future, with the overwhelming majority of financial analysts predicting it would fail. Some early investors have seen their investment rise to 10x or perhaps even 12x the original value! But in 2010-2012, buying Tesla stock was very definitely a "speculative buy".
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interestedinEV said:
I understand there is a niche there. Here is where things get tricky. Those are high end trucks with a lot of power. Will Rivan have that level of power and cachet (thank you grammar Nazi for keep me correct) ro compete against the likes of Raptor or Denali ? Second, most of the trucks are sold in rural areas and states that are generally lukewarm or less than lukewarm to environment/global warming issues and may not command a premium. Third, there is less charging facilities in those areas so may not be as attractive. Not denying there is a market but unlikely it will be a cakewalk. Competitors were not ready for Tesla, they may not allow Rivian that opportunity. So I a sure Rivian will see their first a few months sell out without a problem. But as they ramp up, things may not be that easy. Again this is all speculation. I have no idea what will happen, but Rivian has their work cut out for them.
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Rivian will have more horsepower/ torque than any off road competitor.

Ford Raptor 450 hp/510 lb ft while Rivian will have 800hp/826 lb ft. Only 3/4 ton turbodiesels have more torque, dedicated heavy trailer duty trucks. Rivian isn't competing here.

Hard to say about cachet. Rivian is building their cachet as we speak.

Most trucks are purchased in the suburbs not rural areas. Especially the high end trucks Rivian is competing with. ~46M Americans live in rural areas. 175M Americans live in suburbs, and they have much more disposable income.

Rivan isn't selling Prius trucks. Compromised hairy shirts for environmentalist. They are selling the best trucks that happen to be electric.

Suburbs and rural area population has access to home overnight charging. By Q4 2020 when Rivian launches CCS highway 100 KW-350 KW fast chargers will be much more developed and probably quite adequate for the vast majority of prospective Rivian buyers.
 
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