Counterpoint
New Member
If you don't commute and use public transportation, you can save quite a bit of money by just not having a car. Not everyone needs one.
Range - how much is "enough"?
- Thread starter Grayson
- Start date
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silversod
Member
I like to split the public transport (it's free for me as I'm retired) with driving, I still need a car as I look after after my elderly parents one of whom is wheelchair bound and for taking them to endless hospital/doctors appointments and both our shopping needs.
All this is usually within a 25 mile radius and our yearly mileage is rarely over 2500 miles per year so I was thinking an EV would do us well.
Feed The Trees
Active Member
I like to split the public transport (it's free for me as I'm retired) with driving, I still need a car as I look after after my elderly parents one of whom is wheelchair bound and for taking them to endless hospital/doctors appointments and both our shopping needs.
All this is usually within a 25 mile radius and our yearly mileage is rarely over 2500 miles per year so I was thinking an EV would do us well.
Well here's the thing. EVs are dirtier to build, I dont think that's a debate any more. What is a debate is how many miles of driving it takes for the EV to overtake the cleaner build of the gas car. In your case at 2,500 miles you will be cleaner buying a good high mileage gas car than an EV that will never get driven enough to overtake it's initial deficit. If it's 50,000 miles to carbon breakeven then you need to drive 20 years to get there.
This also highly depends on your source of electricity.
Counterpoint
New Member
Another option that takes that in mind is buying a used Nissan Leaf. Depreciation has made them very affordable, and they will work well for someone with no more than 50 miles driving in a day. And because it's used, it will already have a number of those miles on it toward giving it an "environmental advantage."
Feed The Trees
Active Member
Used is always better as the battery is a sunk environmental cost... however... if another driver will take it to 100k miles let them, don't sit on it for 2,500 miles a year. IMO at least.
This is a broader conundrum of electric cars. As people buy bigger and bigger batteries the range of break even will go up, all other things remaining constant. If they don't build the lithium any cleaner, for eg, or find another battery tech but are instead just tweaking other items like electric components or aero then you're taking on more initial negative carbon than is needed. The person buying a Tesla Model S, even 60kwh, to drive 10 miles a day and never use the range did it wrong if you ask me. I think to really nail the environmental benefit you should use 60-80% of the battery fairly regularly.
This is also why I dont have an EV. My needs are 10 some days, 200 others. 400 not too infrequently. Buying a 100 mile car for daily use wont get enough miles on it for much of my needs so I need a second car. Buying a 300 mile car is a waste for most days. Stuck in the middle.
With a gasser your added carbon comes each fill up, not saddled at purchase. If you dont fill up a lot it may be net better to get gas.
I know there's a huge push to get everyone into an EV but it really doesn't always make sense if you step back and look at use cases.
silversod
Member
The option of buying a newer gas car is sadly out of the question for me, too expensive. and the other more important thing is more & more local councils are considering banning older pre Euro emission 4 diesel/petrol cars from towns/cities to cut emissions in line with EU regulations.
It's not just the big Cities that have to limit CO2 & NOX & particulate missions anymore.
Theres a campaign over here that all UK Local councils are pushing called 'Greener journeys' that wants to reduce ICE journeys
My own local council is voting on this measure at present whether to ban older polluting vehicles from the town or impose a hefty green tax on the worst congested routes.
I just want to get ahead of these upcoming measures and get an EV before I'm taxed out of it, which begs another question! Pretty soon my older car with be worth squat as a trade in against an EV before much longer.
It's not just the big Cities that have to limit CO2 & NOX & particulate missions anymore.
Theres a campaign over here that all UK Local councils are pushing called 'Greener journeys' that wants to reduce ICE journeys
My own local council is voting on this measure at present whether to ban older polluting vehicles from the town or impose a hefty green tax on the worst congested routes.
I just want to get ahead of these upcoming measures and get an EV before I'm taxed out of it, which begs another question! Pretty soon my older car with be worth squat as a trade in against an EV before much longer.
Pushmi-Pullyu
Well-Known Member
Yes, that's one reason why when we pass the tipping point of EV adoption, there will be a sudden acceleration of people switching over to EVs. The longer people wait, the less value their car will have as a trade-in, as public opinion shifts and gasmobiles are seen as less and less desirable.
Clearly we're still some years away from that tipping point.
Domenick
Well-Known Member
That is something to consider on a broad scale as well. Will falling resale value of gas cars create a feedback loop that sees their values plunge dramatically? I've never thought converting over existing gas cars en masse was a feasible idea, but having access to very nice cars at a low price might encourage some of that sort of activity.
Pushmi-Pullyu
Well-Known Member
Well obviously, how fast the changeover happens will be limited by how many EVs are made in a year. But accelerating growth of demand will shortly be followed by accelerating growth in supply, year-on-year.
As a reminder, New York City went from being a city mostly served by horse-drawn vehicles to one mostly served by motor vehicles, in the space of ~13 years. Anybody who thinks the EV revolution won't happen that fast... Well, I'm predicting they will be surprised.
Domenick
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I was thinking down the road a few years when production of dozens of models should be in full swing.
I, too, feel that gas vehicles could be relatively rare 13 years hence.
Feed The Trees
Active Member
There's something like 250-300 million gas cars in the US with about a 1% market share to EV. I don't know what 'relatively rare' means but let say what, 20-30% market for gas and 70-80% EV? In order for that to be the on a road figure you need to first get to a place where EVs are 70-80% annually and then wait a period of say 10 years for the gassers useful life to end and they are removed from the road. I don't see that occurring in 13 years. 25-30 is my guess.
silversod
Member
I've already noticed quite a lot of diesel cars being discounted in motoring ads here in the UK recently, I wonder if it's because of the governments Autumn budget here on the 23rd November, the powers that be reckon diesel is in for a tax hike.
Romeo Rivero
New Member
Installing an in-board charging system say, a regenerative fuel cell or flow battery has not been in mind by electric vehicle manufacturers. Due to high cost of fuel cell plus the regenerating unit and bulky flow battery, a charging unit, 35% of the rated vehicle power requirement could be sufficient.
It could be done.
Feed The Trees
Active Member
I dont know about the UK specifics but I figured the marketing of diesel would just be done after the vw scandal Even other brands dont want to be associated with diesel in an outward facing ad. PThose who want diesel will buy them anyways I figure.
silversod
Member
The trend for diesel cars is downwards, new diesel car sales were down 29.9% in October but there are still an awful lot here. It really boils down to the high price of the fuel plus lots more mpg with diesel engined cars.
I've just filled up my car with petrol (£5.41 / $7.02 UK Gallon) Diesel was a few pence a litre dearer £5.46 / $7.17 UK Gallon at my local petrol station.
I've just filled up my car with petrol (£5.41 / $7.02 UK Gallon) Diesel was a few pence a litre dearer £5.46 / $7.17 UK Gallon at my local petrol station.
Jack
Administrator
Never thought of this before! I know assumptions can be dangerous, but I feel fairly confident that a majority of Tesla customers do not reach their break even point. I have bought two cars in the past year and every dealership has a ton of used Teslas. I honestly feel like many people treat this new and exciting technology like a common toy , throwing it away when they are bored.
I don't know how many miles are on the used cars, nor what it takes to break even, I just know there are a lot of used Teslas out there. And by a lot, I mean that I was consistently surprised to see the number of units that are available.
Would be interested to know the average mileage of used Teslas as well as sales numbers compared to New ones
Feed The Trees
Active Member
Theres other benefits of range of course. More confidence in trips meeting miles, faster charging, better battery life as you dont use as much of it, and better performance of the car. But yes indeed if you are loading up on batteries day 1 and never really getting back past the added initial carbon footprint then you maybe arent doing as much good as possible.
The S though, it's a $100k car +/- usually. People dont spend that money on a car to save the planet. They do it because it's cool, it's new, it's different, it stands out, it signals you as wealthy & progressive, HOV access, etc. It's no different than any other luxury car in those regards other than it adds some eco cred. You can do a lot more planet saving with $100k in other ways it that's the real goal.
Battery swapping is an interesting alternative however there's going to need to be a lot more net batteries made and disbursed through the area to accommodate swapping needs. You probably end up with more battery production in that way.
Really the battery breakthrough that needs to happen isnt even so much about weight or charging speeds, it's about how clean it can be produced. If the cars don't start with original sin in that regards then it will always be better for the environment.
Pushmi-Pullyu
Well-Known Member
For the record, I didn't say I expected to see most gasmobiles replaced by PEVs (Plug-in EVs) by 13 years from today. Today probably less than 1% of the cars on the road are PEVs. Give it another 5-7 years to when there are a lot of models of PEVs to choose from, then hopefully 13 years from that date, most cars on the road will be PEVs.
The point I was trying to make is that when the "S-curve" of market penetration during a disruptive tech revolution really kicks in, the acceleration in the changeover is going to take people by surprise. It's going to seem fast, for those of us who have waited for years or decades for PEVs to become mainstream, and have seen the increase in PEV sales proceed at the pace of a crippled snail.
You think it will take 25-30 years... well, you could be right. I just happen to be a bit more optimistic.
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Wastedspacer
New Member
Indeed there are and with precipitously depreciated values too - off-lease from about $32-50K!! I have a leased 2014 i3 BEV I've been generally happy with. Of course, with a few months to go, BMW leasing is now adding the pressure to buy it out ... for about what I can buy a new Bolt EV LT for... or I can always wait until the auction and pick it up for half price
I will be buying rather than leasing my next EV but alas, after 3 years of range challenges and the funky doors - I really want actual rear doors and a 200 mile range but not prepared or capable to unload $100K, not willing to wait years to get a Model 3 either - so a used 2 year old Tesla S or a new Bolt is a more likely target.
Feed The Trees
Active Member
There already is a long list of choices, the monthly scorecard gets longer every month it seems. But outside of the few top sellers it seems none of them really hot home with buyers. They languish in compliance car status.