Oct 23, TSLA Q3 report

You’ll find it easier to follow if you put skin in the game. Even a single share but 10 would be better.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
You’ll find it easier to follow if you put skin in the game. Even a single share but 10 would be better.
Bob Wilson
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No, I'm near fully invested in other stuff (very broad), so have enough to watch already. I'm actually looking to sell a bit more to have more opportunity money in hand. But the markets keep going up...:(

I used to be way more active in the past, incl day trading. But have got lazy lately, and mostly just swing trades now, and funds (let others do the work). As long as I can keep making more money than spending, and increasing my capital, I'm happy.
 
No problem as long as we agree it impacts credibility. A pig and a chicken agreed on a breakfast meeting of ham and eggs to discuss farmer Brown. The chicken was interested but the pig was committed.

Bob Wilson
 
How much have the SHORTs lost:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-short-sellers-1-4b-183510704.html

. . . However, Tesla short sellers endured $1.4 billion in losses in early Thursday trading, according to S3 Partners analyst Ihor Dusaniwsky. He said Tesla short sellers saw 70% of their 2019 profits evaporate in a matter of minutes.
. . .​

There is no mention of losses from Friday that went from ~$300/share to ~$327. Wednesday it closed at ~$255 and by COB Thursday, ~$299. So the question is:
  • $299-$255 = $44/share ... $1.4B loss suggests $31.8M/dollar price increase
  • $327-$299 = $28/share ... suggests $1.4B + $0.7B ~= $2.1B loss as of COB Friday
Sorry, I don't know how SHORT losses are calculated so this was just a back-of-the-envelope estimation.

Bob Wilson
 
Well, anytime a stock goes up and down, there are winners and losers. Longs lose when it goes down, and shorts lose when it goes up. The amount is all dependent on how long they held their positions. Generally, the big boys fare better with their computer trading and hedging strategies, but they still lose big just on vol of shares. Individuals usually get hurt the most (up or down).

That's why I try to stay away from volatile stocks that are so unpredictable. That includes many other high flying high tech stocks, often with crazy price to book ratios. Those are great for day trading, but not for investing.
 
Glad to see, for the sake of Bob and other long-time investors, Tesla's stock price soaring well above $300 again. It's also good for the sake of Tesla being able to borrow more money on favorable terms.

We might parody the short-seller's glee at the stock price plunging, by saying "Gosh, nine months of losses wiped out in just two days!"
:D :p :cool:
 
R P said:
. . . stay away from volatile stocks that are so unpredictable.
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There is another approach: invest in companies that make a better (even superior) product and management that has demonstrated the ability to learn.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
There is another approach: invest in companies that make a better (even superior) product and management that has demonstrated the ability to learn.
Bob Wilson
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And those that do will also have a good track record of financial performance. Can't say I have seen that yet with TSLA.

Falling in love with a stock/company can be dangerous, as those people tend to have blinders on for anything that does not support their dreams.
 
R P said:
Can't say I have seen that yet with TSLA.
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Not a problem as I've not lost any money with my TSLA investments. There are no guarantees but I sure like the performance and quality of their products ... like the Apple laptop I'm typing this note.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Not a problem as I've not lost any money with my TSLA investments. There are no guarantees but I sure like the performance and quality of their products ... like the Apple laptop I'm typing this note.
Bob Wilson
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Well, unlike Tesla, Apple actually has a good track record. Would do much better (and safer) to put your money in that stock.

I see today, that the run-up has ended a little early, and profit taking happening (by the smart money). But I think the bulls are not done yet. Expect to see a couple more upgrades and PT raises. Usually takes 3 attempts to peak, before a new resistance level is established.
 
R P said:
...Apple actually has a good track record.
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Hmmm, well, if you start counting only at 1997. Before then, not so much. Not from circa 1980 and for the next decade-and-a-half, or more; back when Apple lost about 90% of its desktop computer market to IBM and its clones; or the Apple III, or the Apple Lisa, or the Apple Newton.
​
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Hmmm, well, if you start counting only at 1997. Before then, not so much. Not from circa 1980 and for the next decade-and-a-half, or more; back when Apple lost about 90% of its desktop computer market to IBM and its clones; or the Apple III, or the Apple Lisa, or the Apple Newton.
​
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Gaad, do you just like to argue or what. When we talk about company and stock track records, what happened 20 or 30 years ago has no relevance. Apple has had a very, very good track record for quite a long time now, probably better than 95% of the current DOW companies.

I know you don't own an EV, but do you actually trade/invest in individual stocks? Or do you just talk about that too, even with no experience.
 
In early 1991, APPL had gotten into the $1.70/share range and I bought 100 shares because I'd read about the Powerbook 140 coming. A few months later, I was able to sell the stock at ~$2.50/share:
  • M68030 (32-bit processor, 32-bit linear address) vs Intel 8080 (16-bit, segmented address)
  • ~2 MB memory vs ~640 KB memory
  • ~7 lbs vs ~15 lbs
An obvious superior product, the PowerBoo 140, I bet on Apple and was rewarded with a near doubling of my investment. I sold the APPL stock to make a down payment on our current house.

My investments are based on:
  1. My employer - anyone bright enough to hire me will have an employee stock purchase program. When they are dumb enough to let me go, I sell as they've obviously lost their way. Never lost money and beat the bank rates.
  2. Superior product - the M68000 family was so superior to the Intel 8080 series, it was no contest. Worse, DOS with its silly segmented memory never made sense. Today, the Teslas are head and shoulders above the other EVs.
  3. Superior leadership - Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, and Ken Olsen have been radical, technical leaders who led their companies to make Gob Smacking innovations.
I appreciate there are home-brew 'accountants' who think they can read a balance sheet and make money ... they are welcome to it. It worked so well with Kodak, Enron, and a sad history of collapsed companies. I prefer my investment strategy and since it is my money ... I get to say where and when it goes.

Bob Wilson
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Great heavens! I'd never try to challenge you in that arena, sir. You are unquestionably the champion.
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His also has superior, selective 'audio acuity'. Like many obsessive-compulsive 'Type A', they are incapable of learning, much less understanding any other approach. Best to leave them in their ignorance and move on. It what led me to leaving companies when it was clear they were marching towards the Lemming cliff:


Bob Wilson
 
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And they received their first downgrade (to Sell by Roth Capital). That is a lot faster coming than I expected.
 
10-Q also shows 39% drop in sales over same qtr last year. That is not good, in fact I would say very bad. Also, showing warranty accruals that may have artificially boosted margins that will not be sustainable.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-u-sales-fell-39-172157439.html
That's why we need to wait until 4th qtr 10-K filings (audited) to see what is really going on there.

Meanwhile, I expect the bulls to be back, probably tomorrow, hyping the good news and Musk's projections for next year (does that sound familiar?). So if there are any upgrades, might see another little boost in the stock tomorrow.

This is my first deeper dive into the financials of this stock, and certainly doesn't give me any further confidence in the company. Again, need to establish some credibility and a positive track record going forward, before I would take any long positions. So far all I see is a good day trading stock. Anything long term is just gambling. Surprises (incl large up surprises) don't build much confidence.
 
R P said:
10-Q also shows 39% drop in sales over same qtr last year. That is not good, in fact I would say very bad. Also, showing warranty accruals that may have artificially boosted margins that will not be sustainable.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-u-sales-fell-39-172157439.html
That's why we need to wait until 4th qtr 10-K filings (audited) to see what is really going on there.

Meanwhile, I expect the bulls to be back, probably tomorrow, hyping the good news and Musk's projections for next year (does that sound familiar?). So if there are any upgrades, might see another little boost in the stock tomorrow.

This is my first deeper dive into the financials of this stock, and certainly doesn't give me any further confidence in the company. Again, need to establish some credibility and a positive track record going forward, before I would take any long positions. So far all I see is a good day trading stock. Anything long term is just gambling. Surprises (incl large up surprises) don't build much confidence.
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Nothing new, we have been talking about Tesla's faltering USA sales for a while, and they are off to a worse start so far in Q4. Congrats to Tesla for cooking up the books and spinning lots of details to show a tiny profit and fool wall street. The bigger issues will be sales as we move through the next 2 quarters, and also Elon Musk's litigation which seems to be hitting the media in force now.

How about that shareholder dilution, Poor ole Bob has been so diluted that for him to break even, he needs a very high share price, didn't happen today...
 
David Green said:
How about that shareholder dilution, Poor ole Bob has been so diluted that for him to break even, he needs a very high share price, didn't happen today...
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I wonder if he engineered (un-audited) that 3rd qtr surprise to try and get that stock price up, at least temporarily so he could raise more money. A good company would not have had such a big surprise. They would have done a better job in their prev qtr outlook remarks, or even mid qtr informed the markets if there had been such a major change.

Will see what the bulls will do tomorrow, whether they still dare buy big after that 10-Q filing.
 
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