Number of SEs at dealerships or "arriving soon"

C

CuriousGeorge

Well-Known Member
I know some are tired of this topic, but nonetheless I thought it would be useful to collate this information in a single thread. For example, there may prove to be a "tipping point" at which too much stock impacts prices. In any case, here goes:

8/16/2022 9
9/2/2022 25
10/22/2022 93
10/25/2022 99
10/26/2022 104
10/27/2022 110
11/4/2022 121

Feel free to fill in/add to this as you see fit.

ETA: Yowza. R^2=0.99, with on average 1.39 new cars arriving daily. (Think my dealer will sell me the extra 0.39 of a car for 39% of MSRP?)
 
The problem is that dealers advertise cars that are already sold. Granted some of those will be cancelled by the customer but we don’t know how many. For the data to be useful we need the number of cars advertised that are on the lot for sale, not pre-sold?
 
CuriousGeorge said:
I know some are tired of this topic, but nonetheless I thought it would be useful to collate this information in a single thread. For example, there may prove to be a "tipping point" at which too much stock impacts prices. In any case, here goes:

8/16/2022 9
9/2/2022 25
10/22/2022 93
10/25/2022 99
10/26/2022 104
10/27/2022 110
11/4/2022 121

Feel free to fill in/add to this as you see fit.

ETA: Yowza. R^2=0.99, with on average 1.39 new cars arriving daily. (Think my dealer will sell me the extra 0.39 of a car for 39% of MSRP?)
Click to expand...

What geographical area is the above data for ?
 
They also advertise their single demo SEs for which they will not entertain offers. While I was awaiting mine all summer, I went by the dealership and saw a L3 (Premier+ up here, Iconic in the US) practically identical to my order, with the flag on the antenna and all the promotional signage on it… so I asked, and was told, “Oh no, it’s not for sale, it’s our '23 demo.”
 
AndysComputer said:
The problem is that dealers advertise cars that are already sold. Granted some of those will be cancelled by the customer but we don’t know how many. For the data to be useful we need the number of cars advertised that are on the lot for sale, not pre-sold?
Click to expand...

Unless you think that practice is increasing, the data should still be indicative of the underlying trend.

FWIW, the dealer nearest me has gone from not advertising any SEs for sale/"coming soon" to now advertising five.
 
CuriousGeorge said:
Unless you think that practice is increasing, the data should still be indicative of the underlying trend.

FWIW, the dealer nearest me has gone from not advertising any SEs for sale/"coming soon" to now advertising five.
Click to expand...

Is your premise the same as mine in the other thread? (i.e., as supply increases, prices for new and used SEs will drop?). If so, then I would argue that the data you’re presenting is inconclusive in the short term; we don’t know yet which ones will end up being delivered to the parties that ordered them, thus we don’t know how many of these cars are available. It could just as easily be representative of the volume of orders being fulfilled plus the demo SEs at dealerships.
 
As of Q3 2022 (YTD) there have been 29,191 fully-electric Cooper SEs sold worldwide. In North America, MINI has sold 6,761 2-door Coopers (ICE + BEV) YTD Q3 2022.

When I check MINI UK for a 500 mile radius from Sheffield (covers most of England), there are 14 vehicles available?? England has a population of 55 million and USA has 336 million, so adjusting for USA's population (6.1 times) then there should be 84 vehicles! Clearly 121 USA electrics should extrapolate to 20 in England.
 
I'm surprised at the number of Signature+ (not 2.0) models that keep showing up. Sure, since 22-oct-22, they have always been less than 5, but for a few days that number was 1, and now it is up to 3.
 
gosjsgdi said:
Is your premise the same as mine in the other thread? (i.e., as supply increases, prices for new and used SEs will drop?). If so, then I would argue that the data you’re presenting is inconclusive in the short term; we don’t know yet which ones will end up being delivered to the parties that ordered them, thus we don’t know how many of these cars are available. It could just as easily be representative of the volume of orders being fulfilled plus the demo SEs at dealerships.
Click to expand...

It's such a niche product I'm not convinced that extra stock will have much impact on prices. Perhaps the cost of a used SE will drop a little, since it will be easier to locate a new one to buy off the lot. Countering that, though, is the general used vehicle market these days.
 
I’ve had multiple sales people say that they are legally obligated to post every vehicle on Autotrader despite sold status. Hard to believe.
FWIW, when I bought my first SE in early October 2020 there were 62 listed on Autotrader nationwide.
 
I think the real indicator will be what the change in stock over the next couple months will be. If the inventory turns over quickly then it may be a delivery surge, but if the inventory stays high that could indicate the IRA is having an affect on desirability for the SE. Although in the current market I still don't see any better value for a BEV, new or used. Dollar for dollar the SE is one of the best BEVs on the market considering the build quality and fun factor.
 
polyphonic said:
I’ve had multiple sales people say that they are legally obligated to post every vehicle on Autotrader despite sold status. Hard to believe.
FWIW, when I bought my first SE in early October 2020 there were 62 listed on Autotrader nationwide.
Click to expand...

I suppose I should have specified that I've been going by MINI's website.
 
AndysComputer said:
The problem is that dealers advertise cars that are already sold. Granted some of those will be cancelled by the customer but we don’t know how many. For the data to be useful we need the number of cars advertised that are on the lot for sale, not pre-sold?
Click to expand...

All summer 2022, I phoned dealers across the U.S. whenever a 2023 Cooper SE Countryman appeared on Cars.com. The response was always the same: a chuckle, the car was a social order and an offer to place an order. I finally placed an order.


Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
 
How about a breakdown of the 127 (77 at dealers + 50 in transit) per state?
1 (5m) - HI, VT, KS [3 states]
2 (84m) - MO, NH, CO, WI, NC, CT, NM, GA, NY, MI, VA [11 states]
3 (52m) - NJ, PA, UT, IL, MA, IN [6 states]
4 (11.7m) - OH
5 (5.7m) - MN
6 (7.2m)- AZ
8 (6.2m)- MD
12 (51.3m) - FL, TX
37 (39.2m)- CA

On a per capita rating by state, California is 0.094 MINI Cooper SE per 100,000, but New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maryland is 0.144, 0.155, and 0.13 respectively. Let that MINI Cooper SE panic set in...
 
Update...2 MINI's have sold in California so there's only 125 SE's left (75 at dealer lots + 50 in transit). After breaking down the in transit, the California amounts is within the average in-transit relative to other states (per 100,000 people).

ministatsnov62022.webp
 
11/6/2022 127
11/6/2022 126 (-1 SE sold in MINI of Stevens Creek in Santa Clara, CA)
11/6/2022 125 (-1 SE sold in MINI of Concord in Concord CA)

11/8/2022
+1 in transit to MINI of Universal City in North Hollywood, CA (no SEs)
+2 in transit to Nick Alexander MINI in Los Angeles, CA

Looks like all the action is happening in California!
 
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