You added a lot more than just my numbers.Just with your numbers an EV owner that took advanage of the 14k rebate should have positive equity for about 5 years. At 0 down your payments will be around $450-$500 a month. So that will take of the annual depreciation and they will still have the $12k they received as a credit. I do agree prices will drop but not by 25% in the next 5 years. It will be gradual about 2% a year so in ten years a brand new Clarity should be $8000 cheaper and that's hoping technology advances at a pace that these things become drastically cheaper to produce and the reduction will not happen until there is a large adoption.
What do you figure the depreciation on a base model is?
You are trying to do some numbers magic with the rebate. The fact is the base model car will cost $34K, how you finance it is up to you. The 5K a year depreciation....I am talking about, that is off of the $34K, not the full $47K of the car.
If the credits go away the new car won't be worth $47K, I don't see the market bearing that, prices will drop dramatically between now and 2020/21 25% drop does look realistic, there is even a Corolla due out in 2020 and that is not a 40K base price market.
Who knows.....family cars are not a good financial investment, period.