Nikola (NKLA) stock performance

Domenick

Domenick

Well-Known Member
Founded in 2015, Nikola has made a number of product announcements and showed off a variety of prototypes of both electric and fuel cell vehicles. There is a lot of skepticism surrounding the company, but also a lot of hope.

This thread is to discuss the performance of its stock. It is not a place to discuss the viability of hydrogen fuel cells generally. Please respect those with different opinions about the technology and/or the company. We want an amicable conversation here regardless of your position.

It used an unconventional approach to its IPO: it merged with a company -- VectoIQ Acquisition.

In its early days, the stock NKLA has does pretty well, hanging out in the mid-$30's for a few days before shooting up $37.30 to end today's (6-08-20) trading at $73.27. That gives it a market cap of $19.29 billion.

NKLA.webp
 
Little update after a week of trading. The chart below tracks the past month of trading. Since spiking last week, the stock is seeming to slowly settle. At least one of our members here tried to buy some stock to short but there was none available.

According to Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3 on Twitter) "We have $NKLA float as 164.52 million shares as provided by FactSet."

It's interesting looking at the commentary on Twitter surrounding the stock. It seems like there are a good number of short positions, but there are also some longs. I think one of the biggest problems I see here is with people on both sides of the trade looking at $NKLA like they do $TSLA. They are, ostensibly, in a related business but each company tends to have a unique path. You can't just take what you've learned from one and apply it to the other.

Like Tesla, though, this could be a pretty interesting stock to watch for observers like myself (I'm prohibited from trading in automotive stocks). An outspoken founder, a potentially disruptive technology, and lots of interest. It will become especially entertaining if it displays the same kind of volatility TSLA has shown over its history.

NKLA-6-16-20.webp
 
Domenick said:
Thought this might be an interesting transaction for investors to be aware of: Nikola Insiders File to Sell 53.4 Million Shares

I'm not really sure of all the implications of this but it hasn't seemed to have affected the stock. it closed today at $67.73, up a bit.
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Hah, what a way to put a nail into the coffin of your own company... Yeah, they better sell fast, while they can. Stock right now is being played by the merry band of Robinhood day traders. When they are done, just a few tatters left on the floor...
 
There has been an exposé of Nikola published at Bloomberg, followed by what some are calling a "meltdown" by Nikola CEO Trevor Milton. This double whammy has apparently caused quite a hit to the stock price.

From Bloomberg: "Nikola Founder Exaggerated the Capability of His Debut Truck"

* * * * *

From Twitter:

Trevor Milton
@nikolatrevor
Jun 17

This just got sent to Bloomberg by our legal team. I wont stand for lies from Journalists when they knowingly deceive to harm others - It hurts all journalists. Wait until the full recorded interview comes out and it will expose Ed Ludlow for who he is.

Trevor Milton
@nikolatrevor
Jun 17

This is sad.
@EdLudlow should be let go. He will never set foot in my building or events Nikola puts on. No one in Bloomberg either. His editor was even on the phone to hear my responses. Release the whole interview since it was recorded. People will see you for the deceiver you are. Everyone at the event knew we didn't drive it because it wasnt safe, although it could be driven if we wanted to with safety and time put into it without the fuel cell. The truck built could have been driven w/ testing
He ruined Bloomberg good name. I dont back down and happy to take this fight on. The funny part is, he won't hurt me. He hurt himself for this hack job of an article. There were "no gears and motors missing" you jackjob. They were sitting on the tables to show the audience in person. Why would we have them in the truck if weren't going to drive it? You blew any chance of any interview again. https://bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-06-17/nikola-s-founder-exaggerated-the-capability-of-his-debut-truck?sref=iW3WrQuv&__twitter_impression=true
​
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
There has been an exposé of Nikola published at Bloomberg, followed by what some are calling a "meltdown" by Nikola CEO Trevor Milton. This double whammy has apparently caused quite a hit to the stock price.

From Bloomberg: "Nikola Founder Exaggerated the Capability of His Debut Truck"

* * * * *

From Twitter:

Trevor Milton
@nikolatrevor
Jun 17

This just got sent to Bloomberg by our legal team. I wont stand for lies from Journalists when they knowingly deceive to harm others - It hurts all journalists. Wait until the full recorded interview comes out and it will expose Ed Ludlow for who he is.

Trevor Milton
@nikolatrevor
Jun 17

This is sad.
@EdLudlow should be let go. He will never set foot in my building or events Nikola puts on. No one in Bloomberg either. His editor was even on the phone to hear my responses. Release the whole interview since it was recorded. People will see you for the deceiver you are. Everyone at the event knew we didn't drive it because it wasnt safe, although it could be driven if we wanted to with safety and time put into it without the fuel cell. The truck built could have been driven w/ testing
He ruined Bloomberg good name. I dont back down and happy to take this fight on. The funny part is, he won't hurt me. He hurt himself for this hack job of an article. There were "no gears and motors missing" you jackjob. They were sitting on the tables to show the audience in person. Why would we have them in the truck if weren't going to drive it? You blew any chance of any interview again. https://bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-06-17/nikola-s-founder-exaggerated-the-capability-of-his-debut-truck?sref=iW3WrQuv&__twitter_impression=true
​
Click to expand...

This is an interesting development and goes to the founder and chairman's credibility. I thought the original article not especially interesting. I mean, I don't know if anybody suspected the prototype was actually functional. At the presentation he talked about various unfinished parts and that it was a bit of a rush job. Trevor's reaction to it, I think, was over-the-top. It looks for all the world like a she-doth-protest-too-much situation.

I think he should have just ignored it. As far as I can tell, it didn't affect the stock price at all. Even after this tweet, the stock was up a few dollars yesterday.
 
Domenick said:
I think he should have just ignored it. As far as I can tell, it didn't affect the stock price at all. Even after this tweet, the stock was up a few dollars yesterday.
Click to expand...

You're right, I shouldn't have repeated the rumor about a hit to the stock price. I should have looked that up myself, and we can plainly see it didn't have much if any effect.

I guess you've been following this story closer than I have, Domenick. What I noticed was Nikola claiming they had used their FCEV truck to deliver a trailer full of beer to an Anheuser-Busch location, suggesting it was a fully functional, highway-capable truck. I thank the person who posted the comment to an InsideEVs news article just a day or two ago, who pointed out that in all likelihood, all it did was drive from one Anheuser-Busch location to another only two miles away!
​
 
Until we get past the insiders being able to sell there's not telling how this will go. I committed to going long on NKLA when it was still VTIQ for three reasons 1) their announcements about their battery technology, 2) the plans to basically be an energy company selling both the trucks and the fuel, and 3) the Badger is aiming to compete in the very profitable F-150 market with something far more realistic for mass market appeal then the Tesla Cybertruck / Delorian. Of course none of this is real yet, making it all a crap shoot, but if they execute over the next 5 years then the current price will make sense.
 
Little Monday update. Today has not been kind to the stock. Despite the NASDAQ being up .87% today, the stock is down.

NKLA-7-6-20.webp
 
Well, I certainly wouldn't buy the stock, because I think they will go bankrupt. But I am anticipating "Nikola World" in December 3-5. I think the stock will stay more or less constant until then. What gets revealed will be important. Nikola claims that they have a battery supplier that will give them twice energy density at half price, and they will reveal this on Nikola World. If true this will obsolete their fuel cell program and stock will go up. If false, the last reason for any stock price is gone. Their fuel cell dream is unworkable, sell semi with 1M mile service, warranty, and fuel for $1M. Good deal for the trucking companies. No risk for them but Nikola will not get the H2 fuel price down low enough to make a profit. They will bleed to death selling H2 fuel below cost.
 
I just looked at the stock after a few days and see it suffered a big drop over the weekend. It has stabilized somewhat at these levels, though it does seem to be trending down slightly.

Today is Tesla Q2 earnings day, of course, and it will be interesting to see if there is any sort of knock-on effect from that news later today. I don't really expect any, but this is 2020 and you never know.

Nikola-5-day.webp
 
It's been a pretty eventful week or so regarding Nikola and its valuation. Shortly after its announced deal with GM, Nikola was the subject of a report by an outfit called Hindenberg Research. As you may be able to judge from its title, it's unflattering - Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America.

This appeared to have knocked the stock back from its highs around $50 to the low $30's, where it stayed stable the rest of the week. Meanwhile, Nikola threatened to sue Hindenberg and sent out a rebuttal to 10 of the 53 points raised in the report. Hindenberg them responded to that response with a post. As you can tell from its title, there was no backing down from its original claims: We View Nikola’s Response As a Tacit Admission of Securities Fraud.

Though the demeanor of Trevor Milton, founder and chairman of Nikola, remained combative and unflinching, behind the scenes pressure appears to have been applied. By Sunday night, Milton had resigned from his Nikola-related posts and will now not be involved in the running of the company. He is to be replaced by GM's former vice chairman, Stephen Girsky. Further, his (Milton's) social media writings are to go through an approval process before being published.

Needless to say, the stock took a hit today when the markets opened. By the end of the day, share price had dropped to $27.58, down -$6.61 (19.33%). If this is where the bleeding stops, I see it as a victory of sorts and a declaration of confidence by investors.
 
I did pretty well on the GM run up and took my money off the table. Bought back in small with the profits. Getting smaller.
 
It seems Nikola, unlike Tesla, and other EV startups, has next to no technology of their own? I wish them well and it would be a world changer if hydrogen can become the fuel of the future with capturing, storing and delivering hydrogen replacing oil and gas. I love my Kona Electric, but hydrogen would cure the few shortcomings the car has - limited range (250 miles) and recharging time. The last shortcoming, a lack of many Level 1 charging stations while traveling, could be as big of an issue for hydrogen, until when/if infrastructure gets built (though Nikola is professing to do that as part of their plan...time will tell).

So far, they are reminding me of the story of Tucker - a post WW2 startup with some great ideas (the first 4 wheel independent suspension, direct drive torque converter transmission, rear mounted water-cooled aluminum 6 cylinder engine and new safety features like a collapsable steering column, padded dashboard, etc) but ultimately struggled to turn ideas into production. They produced about 50 cars before the SEC tried to shut them down (with the justification questionable) and cash flow issues finally killed them.
 
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