Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

[bwilson4web]

The battery management system controlling temperatures is key. My BMW i3-REx is liquid cooled/heated but our Prius Prime is only cabin air cooled and heated like the Leaf.

In two winters and two summers, the Prius Prime air cooled battery has had problems that I can reduce but not eliminate. For example, below 50F, there are operating modes that will start the gas engine. I quickly park and power-on restart the car back into EV mode but this has been disappointing. But we learned early on that the original, NiMH battery Prius suffered thermal management problems leading to failures.

Hopefully I'll have only liquid cooled/heated battery cars in a month or two.

Bob Wilson

 

[Domenick]

So, Friday was a terrible day for the stock on top of a terrible week. It's kind of nuts since so many things are going right, but I guess that's the market.
I think a lot of the downward pressure is because of the SEC vs Musk battle, amplified by Jim Cramer, but the news in the financial press seemed to be mostly about Wall Street research firm Cowen analyst Jefferey Osborne lowering his price target to $180. For the record, it was down sharply: $264.53 −$9.49 (3.46%)

I took a couple of screenshots I thought were slightly humorous about that call.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

So, Friday was a terrible day for the stock on top of a terrible week. It's kind of nuts since so many things are going right, but I guess that's the market.
I think a lot of the downward pressure is because of the SEC vs Musk battle...

It does kinda feel like we've fallen down the rabbit hole; Tesla is very clearly experiencing a strong upsurge in demand for the Model 3, so that's great news! Yet nearly all the media coverage is about supposed "chaos" and/or "indecision" at Tesla, and how that his affecting the stock price. There is what appears to me to be a pretty clear-cut cause and effect; the cause is more demand than anticipated, the effect is Tesla announcing rapid changes to its business as a result.

Yet somehow, Tesla's recent changes and/or announcements of impending changes (or not) are being almost uniformly characterized as being bad!

Okay, let me try to put aside my Tesla fanboy attitude, and attempt to look at this objectively: Announcing the closing of nearly all Tesla stores in such an abrupt manner, then walking that back only a few days later with another announcement, does look like indecision at the top of Tesla. That's a fair cop. Even if it wasn't really indecision, it appears to be, which is almost as bad. As they say: "You must not only avoid impropriety; you must avoid the appearance of impropriety." The same goes for indecision in leadership.

So okay, the various groups and individuals who want to see Tesla fail do, for once, have something legitimate to complain about. But that's the only thing that's happened recently for which there is a valid complaint. Tesla adjusting prices up and down isn't at all a bad thing. Other auto makers do that all the time; they call it "running a sale incentive". Characterizing it as "unusual" or "bad" just because Tesla didn't advertise that as a "temporary price reduction" isn't a valid complaint; it's just more pravduh and FUD.

​

 

[Domenick]

A class-action lawsuit about Model 3 production status has been dismissed. Actually, this was an amended version of an earlier version that was also slapped down by the courts.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

A class-action lawsuit about Model 3 production status has been dismissed. Actually, this was an amended version of an earlier version that was also slapped down by the courts.

Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that this lawsuit was dismissed. This sort of thing is precisely why corporations include extensive boilerplate disclaimers in their financial statements and investor prospectus*.

I'm not sure this qualified as a "frivolous lawsuit", but at the least it seems to be awfully close to that.

*I see that word can be either singular or plural. #GrammarNazi

​

 

[Domenick]

One analyst's take on what bears have wrong about Tesla.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

One analyst's take on what bears have wrong about Tesla.

Sadly clueless interviewer. The federal tax credit for buying a Tesla car dropped to half at the beginning of this year, not next.

And the guy he's interviewing; that has to be one of the strangest accents I've ever heard. What am I hearing? Perhaps a Deep South accent overlaid by a heavy Brooklyn accent?

​

 

[bwilson4web]

And the guy he's interviewing; that has to be one of the strangest accents I've ever heard. What am I hearing? Perhaps a Deep South accent overlaid by a heavy Brooklyn accent?

Part of it was a crappy microphone with some audio clipping. As for meter or pacing, he sounds slightly Nordic European to me ... definitely not Southern. His bio lists Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Source: https://www.ancestry.com/name-origin?surname=ives

Ives Name Meaning

English (Norman) and French: from the Old French personal name Ive (modern French Yves), which is of Germanic origin, being a short form of various compound names containing the element iv-, iwa ‘yew’. The final -s is the mark of the Old French nominative case.​

I've known one French native speaker whose metering is somewhat similar.


Bob Wilson

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

...he sounds slightly Nordic European to me ... definitely not Southern. His bio lists Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Thanks. I think many or most people have a better ear for accents than I do.

​

 

[bwilson4web]

Here is a Short Seller advocacy video:


Bob Wilson

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Here is a Short Seller advocacy video:

WOW! Mark B. Spiegel, Linette Lopez, and "Montana Skeptic" all in the same video! It's like one of those Marvel comics anniversary issues where all of a superhero team's biggest supervillain foes show up to attack them at the same time! But wait... where's Edward Niedermeyer? He must be feeling left out! But then, I only watched 7-8 minutes of this trash, so maybe he got some air time later on. No way was I gonna sit thru 33 minutes of regurgitated anti-Tesla FUD!

But of what I saw, I'll give Spiegel the award for most ultra-hyped FUD: He suggests that not only will Tesla's stock collapse, but that the collapse will bring down the entire stock market when it happens!

 

[bwilson4web]

For me, it was gaining understanding of how those people 'think'. They showed no understanding or value in customer satisfaction.

Bob Wilson

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I've known one French native speaker whose metering is somewhat similar.

Wait, how did I miss seeing that part of your comment the first time?

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

For me, it was gaining understanding of how those people 'think'

Well, it seems that con men have to -- on a certain level -- convince themselves that their lies are true. It helps them lie with apparent sincerity. Not that I'm suggesting that all anti-Tesla FUDsters are con men, but certainly self-proclaimed "financial advisors" Mark B. Spiegel and "Montana Skeptic" seem to be; they attempt to make money by "selling" their anti-Tesla position.

* * * * *

Reminds me of a scene in "The Music Man". If you haven't seen the wonderful 1962 film, it's about a con man whose modus oprandi is passing for a traveling salesman, one who gets the people in a small town excited about the idea of a boy's band, so he can sell them band instruments and band uniforms, skipping town before they realize he can't actually play a note or actually teach the kids anything. The scene below comes late in the film, when con man Harold Hill (played wonderfully by Robert Preston) has been found out, and is confronted by perhaps the youngest kid in his would-be band, Winthrop Paroo (played by a very young Ron ("Ronny") Howard). Harold Hill promises Winthrop that he'll answer any question he asks:

WINTHROP: Can you lead a band?

HAROLD: (reluctantly) ...No.

WINTHROP: Are you a big liar?

HAROLD: Yes.

WINTHROP: Are you a dirty rotten crook?

HAROLD: Yes.

WINTHROP: (bursting into tears, kicking) Leave me go, you big liar!

HAROLD: What's the matter? You wanted the truth didn't you? Now I'm bigger'n you and you're going to stand there and get it, so you might as well quit wiggling.

(WINTHROP finally stops, exhausted, stands panting)

HAROLD: [...] you're a wonderful kid. I thought so from the first. That's why I wanted you in the band, just so you'd quit mopin' around feeling sorry for yourself.

WINTHROP: What band?

HAROLD: (pause) ...I always think there's a band, kid.

* * * * *

Of course, in "The Music Man," the con man is the hero of the story, and one who has a positive influence on the town, despite his fundamental dishonesty. In the real world... not so much.

 

[bwilson4web]

In the SHORT sighted spirit of this thread:
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-short-sellers-musk-20190408-story.html

FYI, this is not the first time the LA Times has had difficulty with efficient cars. When we used to own Prius, we could always expect to see something negative from this source.

Bob Wilson

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I admit to being puzzled over why the L.A. Times seems to have a strong anti-Tesla agenda. Tesla is the only auto maker in California, isn't it? Why wouldn't a California newspaper support a State industry? Is there some sort of rivalry between L.A. and the Bay Area, where Tesla is centered, that I don't understand?

At one time I suspected that it was just a political slant, with the L.A. Times being so pro-union that they would print UAW agitprop, and the UAW is putting out a lot of anti-Tesla agitprop. They're angry that they haven't been able to "organize" Tesla's Fremont assembly plant. But skimming through this article, it doesn't seem to be agitprop. This article is yet another one which presents professional FUDsters as if they're reasonable people engaged in a more or less normal business activity. Yet these professional anti-Tesla FUDsters are people who commit fraud on a daily basis, but unfortunately get away with it, either by skirting the edge of the law or because the SEC doesn't have the resources to go after these professional stock manipulators.

* * * * *

Just now, I skimmed thru the Wikipedia article on the paper. I don't see that it's had more than a normal number of controversies, nor to I see any claims of a political slant to the paper.

So their apparently pretty strong anti-Tesla bias remains a mystery to me.

 

[bwilson4web]

This guy's ability to count to five is as accurate as his claims:


Price - I bought my Model 3 for $21,905 by trading-in my 2 year, 16,111 Prius Prime for $18,300. I bought the Prius Prime for $28,400 so there was a 64% depreciation.

Competition - none of them equal the efficiency per mile of my Model 3 and utility. They are gutless wonders that perform like a Prius (unless you admire the Prius.) The Bolt is a clown car compared to the three Teslas S/3/X.

Utility - our 4 seat, Prius Prime was replaced by a 5 seat, Model 3 with plenty of trunk and frunk to spare.

Infantile problems - Tesla continues to improve their products not just each year but each car. Whatever you do, don’t look at mine on the driveway.

Repair - over the speaker's shoulder is a garage full of parts and tools to fix engines with hundreds of moving, wearing parts as they try to disassemble themselves. In contrast, the Tesla has one moving part in the motor and a fixed, single gear transmission. In contrast automatic transmissions have a hundred or more moving parts and valves that are trying to wear themselves apart … and they do. That is his meal ticket.

Staff turnover - is pretty common in high-tech and Elon is as demanding as Steve Jobs.

$21,905 - nice price for a Standard Range Plus Model 3.

Cold (or hot) weather - the modern EVs like the Tesla or our backup, BMW i3-REx, have ‘pre-conditioning.’ In the winter it keeps the battery warm and in the Alabama summer, cool. In contrast, a gas car has to waste gas for the first 5 minutes warming up … and then the cabin … and then the passengers.

Charging stations - he showed +350 VDC SuperCharger yet claimed they are 240 V. Only home chargers, like those using a dryer circuit in a home, have 240 V. Happily, the Tesla comes with a portable, 240 V charger for use at home, RV parks, or any available RV park type charger. Using 120 V plugs are impractical.

4000 lbs with passengers - we weighed our Model 3 with the passengers at a truck stop scale, $11, and it came in at 4,000 lbs. That helps explain the 5-star safety rating in every metric.

$2.50/100 miles - this is what it costs to drive our 5-seat Model 3. Our BMW i3-REx, a smaller and lighter, 4-seat car, costs $2.90/100 miles and $7.87/100 on gas.

Trump tariffs - well that will gut the Chinese EVs (along with even worse problems.)

Bob Wilson