Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Because of dubious past postings, this is the right thread for this source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230919-tesla-growth-narrative-quietly-winds?page=2
Code: 
|               | Prod'n | Sales  |  ATP   |  Rev $M  |
| Q3 Total Auto | 80,142 | 83,775 | 72,802 | $6,099 M |
| Q4 Total Auto | 80,300 | 84,800 | 69,879 | $5,962 M |
We'll probably know the Tesla production numbers by Friday. However the ATP (average transaction price) has a lot of assumptions.

Omitted are the likely improvements in production efficiency. We'll see that in the Q4 report in the net profit. The vehicle margins will tell.

Bob Wilson
 
http://ir.tesla.com/index.php/static-files/f732b430-ef16-4f65-9617-033599efb109

Interesting, that Elon no longer signs these filings. Only Deepak's signature is on there.

I saw a lot of noise in the press about blockbuster Model 3 sales. Lost in that noise is the fact that it's barely 2 quarters of 4K to 5K cars a week production, and Tesla has run out of all US res holders well before Q4. It said, 75% of these 63K didn't have reservations. So what happened to the res holders?

Recall that last year, Elon said, there is 0 doubt, Tesla will reach 10K a week of Model 3 production bu this year. Well, guess what? There aren't any takers if Tesla would produce at that rate. Already, Tesla gave free upgrades to people who had a Model 3 of different types to make their numbers. There are also reports of $10K to $11k discounts on Model 3 to move some metal.

Next quarter will be dismal. I covered some of my shorts today. Last few weeks have been so volatile, and I have been missing out on covering on dips and shorting again on the bounces. So I decided I will take today's dip to cover some.
Still, a big danger of failing to pay the $900M coming due next month. With huge discounts and price cuts etc., I doubt Tesla will generate any cash to pay back the $900M debt. That was just another bluff from Elon to pump the stock.
 
bwilson4web said:
We'll see that in the Q4 report in 4-6 weeks.

WHERE! That bring the mid-range, Model 3 into the $35k range. Seriously, where!

That is the wisest thing I've seen.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...
Doug Kass is a well known figure on thestreet.com. My guess is the $10k was on the higher end Model 3 (performance), not the basic MR model.
doug_kass_10k_discount.webp
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
Doug Kass is a well known figure on thestreet.com.
index.php
Click to expand...
Thanks!

I already knew traditional auto dealership prices were softer at the end of the month. Apparently Tesla prices are softest at the end of the quarter. GOOD TO KNOW!

BTW, I just read the complete Twitter thread and didn't find:
  • Original price of Model 3
  • Which version and options
Do you have those details?

Bob Wilson
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
Please see my updated reply. My guess is, $10k discount was for the higher end model 3 cars. Here is the tweet link. Doug doesn't say which model.
https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1080459126063448064
Click to expand...
That matches my reading of the thread. So if it is $10K on a rear-wheel drive, Model 3, with full function auto-pilot and one of the discontinued colors, I wouldn't consider it a great deal. Those typically cost North of $60k so $10k off would bring it down to $50k.

See if you can find which Tesla store it was. The reason is we find there are significant discounts on the Prius Prime depending upon where it is bought. I drove mine 1,200 miles home by purchasing it in Rhode Island.

Bob Wilson
 
TeslaInvestors said:
...Tesla has run out of all US res holders well before Q4. It said, 75% of these 63K didn't have reservations. So what happened to the res holders?
Click to expand...

Why are you still here, dude? Are you still losing money on a TSLA "short" investment? Seriously?

It's over. Tesla won; you short-selling FUDsters lost. If you insist on continuing to post this nonsense, then find some coal-rolling forum where your Tesla bashing might be appreciated.

But to answer your accusation pretending to be a question:

1. Tesla has stopped taking domestic reservations, altho I think it continues to take them overseas. Obviously this means the number of domestic reservations will drop over time, as they are used up.

2. There are still a large number of domestic Model 3 reservation holders waiting for a better buying opportunity; a Standard Range version, or the end to the $5k PUP (Premium Upgrade Package) being mandatory, or Tesla offering leases for the Model 3. Tesla didn't offer leases for the first few years of Model S sales, and it looks like they will repeat that pattern with the Model 3.

Now, are you going to pretend that someone as deeply interested in Tesla's finances didn't already know all that? If so, then you're neglecting your "due diligence" as an investor. Hopefully, for the sake of you and your family, your skills at investing are better -- much better -- than the very poor ability you've demonstrated as a serial Tesla basher. :rolleyes:
​
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Already, Tesla gave free upgrades to people who had a Model 3 of different types to make their numbers.
Click to expand...

Is that just more FUD? The only "free upgrades" I've seen reported (after Elon clamped down on some Tesla sales reps giving unauthorized "special offers" to certain customers, during one end-of-quarter sales push) are for free use of the Supercharger network. A nice carrot, but it doesn't cost Tesla much.

TeslaInvestors said:
There are also reports of $10K to $11k discounts on Model 3 to move some metal.
Click to expand...

A lot of things are "reported" by the anti-Tesla pravduh crowd. Few of them are actually true... as you well know, "TeslaInvestors". In fact, if you repeat it, then that alone indicates it's most likely not true.

wXu7W3k.jpg
 
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bwilson4web said:
Because of dubious past postings,
Click to expand...
. . . this is the right thread for this source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230919-tesla-growth-narrative-quietly-winds?page=2
Code: 
| | Prod'n | Sales | ATP | Rev $M |
| Q3 Total Auto | 80,142 | 83,775 | 72,802 | $6,099 M |
| Q4 Total Auto | 80,300 | 84,800 | 69,879 | $5,962 M |
| Q4 actual     | 86,555 | 90,700 | <TBD>  | <TDB>    |
We'll probably know the Tesla production numbers, NOW.
Tesla said:
Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q4 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
Click to expand...

Bob Wilson
 
Covered another 30% of my total short position today. Was trying to cover at 297.50. But the stock is so volatile, by the time I could place my order, it was already at 298.xx :( Now I am all set to short more if it pops with the earnings expectations or some other positive rumor/leak from Elon to pump up the stock.
I hope the seesaw pattern of Tesla stock price continues for eternity for all to enjoy. :)
 
Tesla Is Now America's Number One Premium Automotive Company, Outsells BMW, Lexus In Q4
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanba...ompany-outsells-bmw-lexus-in-q4/#222e94d94af3

What a joke. As if one month aided by expiring govt handouts and pent up demand means anything.
As usual. Elon was quick to tweet this out. He never misses any opportunity to pump the stock. :) Good, good. Bring it on Elon. I am ready to short some more if you can give a pop to the stock.

Hey Elon, how about retweeting this video to show your fanboys how the car buying experience at your stealerships is? LOL. People aren't interested in your farting gimmicks. They would rather have a working car delivered per their contract. Is that too much for a genius rocket scientist to deliver? Get some training from Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, Volvo, Subaru, Mitsubishi etc. if you need it. But stop scamming your customers. :)


Here is Tesla Model S, the best selling car in Norway (for only a month; now it is way down in the charts.) Mission accomplished.
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...-was-best-selling-car-in-norway-for-september
Tesla Model S Was Best-Selling Car In Norway For September
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
I am ready to short some more if you can give a pop to the stock.
Click to expand...

Clearly, learning has not taken place.

* * * * *

Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)
2018: 245,240 (+142%)

"To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined."
​
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Tesla Is Now America's Number One Premium Automotive Company, Outsells BMW, Lexus In Q4
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanba...ompany-outsells-bmw-lexus-in-q4/#222e94d94af3

What a joke. As if one month aided by expiring govt handouts and pent up demand means anything.
As usual. Elon was quick to tweet this out. He never misses any opportunity to pump the stock. :) Good, good. Bring it on Elon. I am ready to short some more if you can give a pop to the stock.
Click to expand...
Well, it didn't take long to tear apart that fallacious article! Surely, Elon being a genius engineer cum scientist would've known that the article he just tweeted compared apples to oranges? The Forbes article says:
Today, the Silicon Valley automaker disclosed that it delivered more than 90,000 vehicles for the last quarter of 2018—8% more than in the third quarter, which was already an all-time-high for the company—including 63,150 Model 3 (+13% from Q3), 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X vehicles.
..
Our estimate indicates that the Bavarian luxury car maker sold about 80,000 BMW-branded vehicles (cars and SUVs) in the final quarter of the year, around 10,000 fewer than Tesla—the German automaker is expected to announce its official sales numbers in the coming days.
Click to expand...

And here is the takedown of that lie (#12345..).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-tweet-tesla-isn-t-the-no-1-premium-carmaker
Elon Musk Is Wrong. Tesla Isn't America’s No. 1 Premium Carmaker
The problem is, the 90,700 delivery figure Tesla reported was a global result. Mercedes sold 90,575 in the U.S. alone during the same period.
Click to expand...

PS: OK, I take my hats off to Sir Elon for doing the right thing in this case. It seems, he deleted his retweet of this article. Or may be Tesla tweet team got to him. His tweets are supposed to be checked now, since the SEC agreement took effect last week.
 
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The problem is, the 90,700 delivery figure Tesla reported was a global result. Mercedes sold 90,575 in the U.S. alone during the same period.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that rather glaring error was pointed out in comments posted to the InsideEVs News article covering that.

How embarrassing for Forbes... not to mention for InsideEVs, which copied Forbes' error.

BTW -- Congratulations, "TeslaInvestors", in finding something that's actually true to comment about. You might try doing that more often, as the rest of us do.
o_O
 
TeslaInvestors said:
PS: OK, I take my hats off to Sir Elon for doing the right thing in this case. It seems, he deleted his retweet of this article. Or may be Tesla tweet team got to him. His tweets are supposed to be checked now, since the SEC agreement took effect last week.
Click to expand...

Actually, from what Elon said in the Recode Decode podcast interview, nobody is checking his tweets before he sends them out. According to what he said there, it's just that he's going to try to be more careful when it comes to material statements about Tesla's business.

I predict he's going to get into trouble again. Tesla's board really should put their foot (feet?) down and demand that all his tweets be checked by someone else before posting. Just my opinion, of course.
​
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I predict he's going to get into trouble again. Tesla's board really should put their foot (feet?) down and demand that all his tweets be checked by someone else before posting. Just my opinion, of course.
Click to expand...
I figure he shares the Twitter login credentials with a team of twitter 'keepers' who monitor his posts 24x7. Each gets reviewed by a paralegal training in what is safe and not so safe.

Better still, a 'twitter' front end so Elon sees all but posts go to a 24x7 review team. With a short delay, passed on or held for 'clarification.'

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Better still, a 'twitter' front end so Elon sees all but posts go to a 24x7 review team. With a short delay, passed on or held for 'clarification.'
Click to expand...

*Shrug* That's certainly how Tesla should handle Elon's Twitter account. But he said otherwise, pretty clearly, and doubled down on it when the interviewer (the Recode Decode podcast host) questioned the wisdom of him continuing to tweet without oversight after the relatively heavy wrist-slap the SEC gave him.

Of course it's possible that Elon's vanity simply doesn't allow him to admit he now has "minders", but absent evidence to the contrary, I'm going to assume that what Elon said is true.
 
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