Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Tesla's stock price tomorrow:

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As part of my celebration of Tesla's report on a wildly successful financial quarter, I'm indulging in reading the comments posted this afternoon and evening at the Tesla Motors Club forum's "TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable" thread.

Here's one I think is worth copying and pasting:

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Zaxxon said:

I love that this shareholder letter was clearly written to take apart the naysayer arguments:
-Minimal ZEV credits. Can't say the net income came from ZEV.
-Shows Model 3 the #1 vehicle by revenue
-Calls out stable production despite introduction of AWD and reduction of labor hours. It's tough to get too worked up about missing production goals when the product mix and margin skyrocketed (way past Q3 guidance for margin).
-Nukes the 'parking lot' theory directly
-Calls out the crazy trade-up trend for Model 3, as well as the fact that Europe's market for the 3's vehicle class is > 2X the US's, and that orders are coming in the next two months for Europe/China.
-Directly addresses the vehicle efficiency deficiency of new 'competition' (eg I-Pace).
-Reaffirms guidance for profitability in Q4
-Cash/equiv = $3.5B, and guided to increase significantly in Q4 while paying off $230M in notes during Q4. What was that about March notes?

Other things I like:
-They guide for increased Model 3 production/deliveries, but do not tie themselves to a specific wildly-optimistic number. With such a positive report, I'm glad they didn't include unnecessary poison pills like that.
-Reaffirms that they plan to increase service infrastructure investment in Q4. I was a tiny bit afraid that they were going to keep up with the minimal expansion for another quarter, and I don't think they could afford to do that given the sales volume.

If I had to find a complaint, it's that... Uhh, OK, how about that the solar roof is still clearly not ramping in any significant way. Yeah, that's the ticket. Hang your hat on that, shorty air force.​
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​
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I don't expect Tesla's Chinese Gigafactory to begin producing Model 3's in 2019; I don't expect to see that until 2020. Now, it's possible that I'll be proven wrong here; it's possible that Tesla will use the "Production line in a tent" plan to jump-start production. However, as has been pointed out in previous discussions, you can't put everything in a tent. The paint shop and the giant metal stamping machines they use to stamp out body panels probably won't be seen underneath a tent. However, it's possible Tesla could install those (temporarily or otherwise) in a nearby existing building and shuttle things back and forth to the tent.

Domenick, do you think Tesla will ship U.S.-made Model 3's to China for sale? I doubt that's going to happen, so long as Tesla has only a single auto assembly plant. Now, if they start making Model 3's at Gigafactory 1 (in Nevada), that might happen. But the Chinese tariffs on imported, U.S.-made cars is a pretty stiff barrier. So long as there is sufficient demand in the U.S., Europe, and other first-world countries, why would Tesla want to ship any Model 3's to China?
Click to expand...

He said APAC (Asia Pacific) deliveries would start in Q2 (Europe Q1), so I assumed some of that would be China. Now, though, I'm wondering if that will be just Taiwan and South Korea, possibly Japan and Australia (which are both right-hand drive countries and take a little extra time). If he believes the China Gigafactory can produce Model 3 in 2019, he might not ship there.

I have my doubts about getting China GF up and producing before Q1 2020, but it should be noted that things can happen fast in China if you have good political connections which, I believe, Tesla does.

Elon with Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong. I've seen a more informal photo as well, with Elon eating street food.
105320715-1531231553411photo2.530x298.jpg


Edited to add other photo referenced above. Here, they eat breakfast jianbing on the street.
musk-jianbing-shanghai.jpg
 
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Was that addressed to me?

You be calm for the both of us, my friend. Me, since I almost never drink alcohol and never to excess, I'll have to satisfy myself with being "drunk" on happiness. Which I certainly am tonight!
Click to expand...
Certainly Q3 is great but often USA business focuses on quarter-to-quarter results and fails see the big picture. I read the 2017 Q3, Q4 as well as 2018 Q1, Q2 and saw the arc of Tesla progress. I knew the money being spent was going into manufacturing equipment and the more expensive, personal training and learning. I could also see Elon was not getting trapped by the "Innovator's Dilemma."

I've been and remain a fan of Sandy Munro but I also realize how often 'experts' come in and advise, 'just do business like everyone else and give up all that new fangled stuff.' Experts can be, no usually are, poison to innovation.

Tesla does have a lot of debt but also the means to deal with it. But having been 'house poor,' I can sympathize with modest growth for 90-180 days to reduce or refinance the debt. Tesla has a strong negotiating position as it is hard to justify loaning to traditional car manufacturers. Also, Elon is letting the Chinese invest in his factory which I think is brilliant because it eviscerates the Orange One's tariffs.

So toast Elon and Tesla tonight but with the dawn, we need to see the detailed Q3 report and merge it into the earlier ones.

Bob Wilson
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I don't expect Tesla's Chinese Gigafactory to begin producing Model 3's in 2019; I don't expect to see that until 2020.
Click to expand...

Update: I was confused by a quote in Domenick's new article at IEVs news: "Tesla’s China Factory Will Build Model 3 & Model Y"

“[Tesla] won’t be making Model S and Model X, but we’ll be making probably Model 3, probably Model Y primarily for the local Chinese market and it’s really the only way to make the cars affordable in China, but it’s three years out, so.”​

That would indicate production will start in 2021, not 2020.

However, I Googled it, and now I see the quote was from Nov. 2017. Obviously with the new tariffs (just one more thing we can "thank" the Cheeto-in-Chief for), Tesla has a strong motive to accelerate the timeline for producing Model 3's and Model Y's at the Chinese Gigafactory.

So, who knows? Will we see Model 3's -- and possibly Model Y's -- rolling off the assembly line at Gigafactory 3, in Shanghai, in 2019? Or will that have to wait until 2020?

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Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!
:)
 

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The Bloomberg 'talking head' at 6:29 in the video hasn't gotten the memo:

  • She lists the 'taking private' and the analysts have to point out this is small change and resolved. Compared to the Orange One, small potatoes.
  • But she doesn't give up trying to get someone to join her 'Elon defrauding' nonsense. Again the analysts has to correct her that it is nothing compared to other bad actors.
I don't think she was saying anything on her own as much as reading from a prepared script.

Bob Lutz won't give up on his belief that EV cars are loss leaders that have to be supported by increasing pickup truck prices:

  • He doesn't understand batteries worth a darn much less what a purpose-built EV is.
Bob Wilson
 
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bwilson4web said:
I don't think she was saying anything on her own as much as reading from a prepared script.
Click to expand...

It does at times seem like most or nearly all so-called "market analysts" are just delivering the talking points that their employers* are paying them to parrot, just like all too many politicians these days (and not just GOP members, either) are merely parroting the "talking points" given to them by their parties.

After all, if someone really had the inside scoop on a company's stock performance, why would they tell the world? They would go out and make that investment themselves, and bask in the satisfaction of having called a market move before it happened!

Am I being overly cynical? Maybe... but I don't think so. Real financial advisers don't give their services away for free on TV or on the internet. Real financial advisors charge for their services.

*The term "employer" here may be either the firm where they are employed, or whoever is paying them a "consulting fee"... or whatever the professional FUDsters call it when they pay someone to regurgitate well-chewed FUD, either in an "article" in the press or as a talking head in a news video.
​
 
Hmmm, Tesla's stock price didn't go up today as much as I expected; only 9.14%. Not quite the rocket taking off that I suggested in a previous post! ;)

Still, I imagine day traders who bought yesterday are happy. An increase of $26.36 in a single day isn't bad! :)
​
 
Well, finally DOJ is looking into one fraud: lies about tall Model 3 production guidelines. Funny, Tesla never told the truths as early as they knew of it. There is such an over abundance of evidence, I don't know why FBI still needs to conduct an investigation. This is just one of many frauds. Tesla already ate crow in Netherlands trying to limit unlimited supercharging to taxi drivers.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fbi-reviewing-tesla-apos-model-180400006.html

Tesla keeps fudging matters so much, trying to make it hard to catch them. Like, it announced mid range Model 3 at $45000. You tell your friends about the $45k model 3. Bt the tiem they try to order, it is already quietly at $46k! Now there is free supercharging, now there is not! FSD was all working fine when you paid for it, and then it does not! Many options going away, order right now! Next day, they are back! List goes on and on.
 
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bwilson4web said:
A little Googling and I found the case number. Apparently there has already been a settlement for "Case 5:17-cv-02193":
https://www.leagle.com/decision/infdco20180611611

. . .
20. The Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 23(e) Final Approval Hearing is hereby scheduled to be held before the Court at 9:00 AM on October 17, 2018,at the San Jose Courthouse, Courtroom 3, 5th Floor, 280 S. 1st Street, San Jose, CA 91513, for the following purposes:
. . .
If you purchased Tesla's Enhanced Autopilot in connection with your purchase or lease of a Model S or X car delivered to you on or before September 30, 2017, a class action settlement may affect your rights.
. . .
If the Court approves the Settlement, Tesla will create a $5,415,280 Settlement Fund, from which eligible Settlement Class Members . . . ​

I appreciate your interest in Tesla lawsuits but without case numbers, they really don't tell us much. If you'll post the case numbers of the other lawsuits, we can see what happened. News reports at best can lead to identification of the specific cases so we can then track the legal filings.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...
Follow this guy on twitter. He seems to know all the lawsuits.
luis carruthers
@orthereaboot

Here is the weblinn. If you don't have twitter account, you can just view with any browser.
Director of manufacturing there is 0 chance of 5000 cars a week in 2017 is saying something.
https://twitter.com/orthereaboot

https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1046754488353271808
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Well, finally DOJ is looking into one fraud: lies about tall Model 3 production guidelines. Funny, Tesla never told the truths as early as they knew of it. There is such an over abundance of evidence, I don't know why FBI still needs to conduct an investigation. This is just one of many frauds. Tesla already ate crow in Netherlands trying to limit unlimited supercharging to taxi drivers.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fbi-reviewing-tesla-apos-model-180400006.html

Tesla keeps fudging matters so much, trying to make it hard to catch them. Like, it announced mid range Model 3 at $45000. You tell your friends about the $45k model 3. Bt the tiem they try to order, it is already quietly at $46k! Now there is free supercharging, now there is not! FSD was all working fine when you paid for it, and then it does not! Many options going away, order right now! Next day, they are back! List goes on and on.
Click to expand...
Here we go again! Tesla is so production constrained that it lowers the performance upgrade price to $0 from $5000! Finally butt hurt Fred realizes what a scam Tesla is. Punishing the early adopter res holders loyalists at every opportunity it gets. This happening even before the fed tax credit expiry.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/26/tesl...ice-punish-reservation-holders/#disqus_thread

Teslemmings (oops, I mean loyalists/fans) are getting it that they were scammed.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1055991558174953472
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
Here we go again! Tesla is so production constrained that it lowers the performance upgrade price to $0 from $5000! Finally butt hurt Fred realizes what a scam Tesla is.
Click to expand...

So, then... if Tesla lowers the price on one version of its cars, that's not only a bad thing, it's a "scam".

"Wolf, wolf, wolf!" cries the serial Tesla basher. Rather silly and obvious bit of pravduh, there.
:rolleyes:
 
Well let's start with:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-fbi-conducting-criminal-investigation-191554183.html

Report: FBI conducting criminal investigation into Tesla

Associated Press
The Associated Press
Associated PressOctober 26, 2018

A published report Friday said the FBI is conducting a criminal investigation into whether electric-car maker Tesla misled investors by overstating production forecasts for its Model 3 sedan.

The Wall Street Journal reported that FBI agents have contacted former Tesla employees to interview them. The paper cited anonymous people familiar with the matter.

A Tesla spokesman said the company was transparent about the difficulty of increasing production of the Model 3. He said the company cooperated with a "voluntary request" for documents from the Justice Department earlier this year and has received no additional requests on the matter for months.
. . .​

We heard this tune before:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...lawsuit-over-model-3-production-idUSKCN1LC26L

Tesla, Elon Musk win dismissal of lawsuit over Model 3 production

(Reuters) - A federal judge in San Francisco dismissed a securities fraud lawsuit in which Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shareholders accused the electric car company and Chief Executive Elon Musk of misleading them about the progress of production of its Model 3 vehicle.

In a decision made public on Monday, U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer said that while shareholders claimed that Tesla fell short of its production goals, “federal securities laws do not punish companies for failing to achieve their targets.”

Breyer said the shareholders have until Sept. 28 to amend their complaint. Their lawyer, Laurence Rosen, did not respond to a request for comment.
. . .​

Looks like someone is taking a second 'at bat.' After the civil suit failed, someone with legal skills (lawyer Laurence Rosen?) filed a criminal complaint. Until we see any court filings, all we have is FUD.

Bob Wilson

ps. Before the 2016 election, I had subscribed to the Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Then I noticed both had problems with facts and data. In particular, they both would 'bury the lead.'

They would publish an article with an inflammatory title and then 3-4 paragraphs later, the title was completely debunked. In the case of the Wall Street Journal, this is classic Murdoch. But the New York Times also has more dirty laundry.

Before the 2016 election, the Times knew Trump's Russia associations were under FBI investigation and remained silent ... unless there was a Hillary Clinton investigation to report. Then there was Judith Miller who became a de facto press secretary to the GW Bush administration.
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
Here we go again! Tesla is so production constrained that it lowers the performance upgrade price to $0 from $5000! Finally butt hurt Fred realizes what a scam Tesla is. Punishing the early adopter res holders loyalists at every opportunity it gets. This happening even before the fed tax credit expiry.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/26/tesl...ice-punish-reservation-holders/#disqus_thread

Teslemmings (oops, I mean loyalists/fans) are getting it that they were scammed.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1055991558174953472
Click to expand...
Things took a really interesting turn today in twitter exchanges between Elon and his devotees.
Elon (on weeds?) ended up promising $5000 refund for all the P3D owners, both with and without the upgrade package!
If staunch fanboys like Fred and few other jokers on various forums are pissed, then you know it's really bad.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/performance-upgrade-price-change.133264/

I believe Elon got the message that he can't fool the customers anymore.
 
bwilson4web said:
Tesla, Elon Musk win dismissal of lawsuit over Model 3 production​
.
Click to expand...
Yes, that's the case which is back, with more evidence. Now they can also use all the info found by FBI and SEC to strengthen their case.

For the DOJ investigation: Both WSJ and Tesla spokesperson can be right. DOJ is not asking Tesla. It is asking former employeees.
Anything DOJ/FBI find canbe used by other litigators.
 
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