Lincoln cancels Rivian-based vehicle

[Domenick]

The plan for Ford and Rivian to jointly develop an SUV for the Lincoln brand has been shelved. The coronavirus pandemic was named as the root reason. Lincoln told its dealers about the decision yesterday (Tuesday).

A statement from the company reads: "Our strategic commitment to Lincoln, Rivian and electrification remains unchanged and Lincoln's future plans will include an all-electric vehicle consistent with its Quiet Flight DNA."

Despite the decision, Lincoln claims it's still committed to the Rivian partnership. Apparently, they are still going to work together "on an alternative vehicle based on Rivian's skateboard platform."

That basically covers the factual news. I'll leave my opinion for another post.

 

[Domenick]

I'm of two minds (maybe more) about this. First, it sucks for Rivian. They still have a huge amount of work they need to accomplish with their own orders and those from Amazon, but this was really a nice bonus deal for them. Besides the obvious revenue inflow, I think it builds confidence in the company overall when an established automaker turned to them for vehicles.

For Ford, it's a bit more complicated. I've felt like they've had a bit of a scattergun approach when it comes to their EV program:

• In-house Mustang Mach-E on ground-up EV platform
• MEB-based vehicle(s) from Volkswagen
• In-house F-150 based on ICE platform edit* turns out, they made a dedicated EV platform for this.
• Electrified Transit (for Streetscooter)
• Ford Transit Electric produced in U.S.
• 2-ton Ford Transit PHEV

I think they should have taken a page from VW (and now GM) and built a flexible platform upon which to build multiple vehicle types for both of their brands. So, there's no way of knowing at the moment how, exactly, this will affect their EV program beyond the obvious -- no electric SUV for Lincoln in the short term.

What I hope they decide to do is to build a Lincoln crossover based on the Mach-E. It makes the most sense (to me, at least). And preferably, not just a re-badging of the Mach-E, but rater a unique vehicle that Ford could also sell under the Ford name in Europe.

 

[Fred Golden]

I like your idea of a Mach-E based Lincoln. Perhaps a SUV like the Edge, but with the Mustang Mach-E chassis. So a totally different sheet metal set up on the top of the Mustang Mach-E chassis. There is a HUGE hint in the Lincoln letter. They want to keep the Lincoln "Quiet and comfortable". Perhaps the motors or inverter on the Rivian make more noise than the F-150 or Mach-E. Or it might be they can not tune the suspension to make it smooth and easy compared to the typical Lincoln.

I have a feeling that Rivian has it's plate full, with the orders from Amazon, and also bringing out two completely new models and starting a factory from basically scratch. Also there would be the battery problem.

Ford needs 100 KW of batteries for each of it's pickups, 65 - 70 KW for each Mustang Mach-E, and more for the Transit electric vans. Amazon might also start switching from electric Rivian vans to the Transit - should there be more of one than the other. Buy what you can. I can see Ford making 10,000 - 20,000 Mach-E each month, if they can get the batteries, and 10,000 - 20,000 F-150, 6,000 - 12,000 Transit vans too.

I don't have any statistics on how many batteries Samsung can provide Rivian. Perhaps enough for 10,000 cars a month? I don't know how many GW of batteries they can produce each year, that are not committed to another car manufacture. Rivian would have been thoughtful to start stocking up on the battery pack, even before they started producing the cars. Just in time might bite them!

I think that Ford is hoping a manufacture will start producing 10 GW of batteries per year in Michigan.

Daimler Truck is in the works to have a battery manufacture produce 10 - 15 GW per year in a factory near their Thomas Built Bus factory. If President Biden gets his way, and they start replacing the 400,000 buses in the next 4 years, each MW of bus batteries are installed in just 4 buses! So that will commit another 100 GW of batteries over the next 4-6 years.