"Learning from Tesla Green Cars go Stylish" CBS (Honda Insight article)

[101101]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/learning-from-tesla-green-cars-go-stylish/

Was reading through the above which turned out to essentially be an ad for the Insight. It was going pretty good noted a good looking Accord looking vehicle with out the hump and back cut wheel design and sales killer on the Clarity was excited and then got to the point where it started talking about the ICE engine or it being a hybrid. Of course Insight was the first hybrid in the US back in 1999- should have known.

Honda, pay attention to when people quit reading this article. The shill ware on a site like CBS's should allow that. Because that is where I stopped as soon as I learned of the power plant. An ICE engine is like discovering a tumor. Its basically criminal negligence to buy an ICE or a hybrid at this point, hydrogen is worse.

Some advice that may help. Take those ICE engineers or any petrol related specialty engineer that are too old to retrain or re-specialize that got you to this point of success, ask them how long they planned to stay on and then pay them the difference on the spot in salary and benefits and then retire them out at the pay and benefit rate they would have received if they stayed on to that point. Find out whether they can survive early retirement and if its terminal for them, offer them an additional part time job but do not under any circumstances allow it to have a petrol focus, unless its on retiring petrol as quick as humanly possible. Re direct all the savings and talent budget to full electrics. No delusions about hybrid or hydrogen. These are both criminal scams that very seriously risk destroying the company. We're hearing out of Dubai that they are going to spend a lot of money on hybrid because its going to be the bridge etc. Its not, not without at way to reach into people's accounts and steal the money or hold a gun to their heads and force them to buy stuff they don't want or need that is rightfully perceived as obsolete unethical and immoral.

Petrol transfer payments are coming to an end, disgorgement is more the issue at this point. Its over.

 

[jdonalds]

I think the age of pure electric cars will come when full recharge times reach 15 minutes and under. There is no question that many people benefit from the current EV availability, but most will still shy away from them due to range issues and long recharge times.

A small percentage of the public is buying BEV or PHEV cars. When they look most will reject fuel cells (if even available in their market), some will look at BEV but shy away from the range issue, and the bulk will select the PHEV. That's where the numbers are now. The major manufacturers, having done extensive studies, are geared up to sell hybrids. Honda is betting exactly on that. Even so with a prediction of 75,000 Clarity Plug-Ins over 5 years the market is still small. The world consumed nearly 80 million new cars in 2017.

We bought the plug-in Clarity because it can double as an electric vehicle around town, and a long distance transport without hours of recharge added to already long trips. Presently I think this is still the largest market niche and it is a transition factor for electric cars. Apparently Honda feels the same. We never even considered buying a full electric model at this time. We had two Prius from 2008 until Dec 2017 and had zero problems with either car; not so much as a loose screw. So I'm not concerned about the burden of having an ICE to maintain.

It seems to me the new models in the 2 to 3 year time frame, that will have solid state batteries, may be the turning point for BEV. If methods are finally found to produce graphene in volume and low cost batteries will take yet another step forward.

When the average public (not likely posting here) find that they can buy a pure electric car that goes 500 miles on a charge, can be charged in 10 minutes, and the battery will last the life of the car they will be willing to dump the ICE which is a long overdue desire of mine.

Right now I think full electric cars in America is a niche market. I expect that fact to dramatically change about 2020 to 2022. It will accelerate after that. I look forward to the oil companies putting fast charge "pumps" in their gas stations. Then we'll know the corner has been turned.

When we bought the Clarity Plug-In I realized it will become obsolete before I'm ready to sell it. But it will serve our purposes. Hybrids will go the way of gas powered cars as electrics become truly viable.

Don't get me wrong. I love driving around town on full electric. I also want the gas engine to go away. I'm a bit embarrassed that we are still using such a crude method for powering our cars for the past 120+ years. But consumers, in my opinion, will want the gas engine for a few more years.

 

[101101]

I like the Clarity too because longer range PHEV viable for commutes but I want them to take the styling faux pas out- which I think they are using to artificially restrain sales to prevent cannibalization and preserve sales of higher margin units while playing the compliance game. I have experience with Prius too, it is no question reliable, but its not 1 million mile reliable- hope Tesla EVs that promise that can keep that and not do the American programmed breakage hollowing out thing- American auto thinks of itself as a toll road with all the market or customer can bear mentality which should have put them out of business a long time ago. So yes Toyota reliability and possibly warranty but still going to be more expensive to fix when a fix is needed and more expensive to maintain and higher fuel cost. Also what are FCA or even Mercedes chances of becoming Toyota?

But I think BEV time is now with non compliance example set by Model 3 and other Tesla models.
Car has full charge every morning, may not even have to plug it it with plate charger, pay a lot less for fuel and maintenance and not having to go to gas stations regularly and charging stations possibly almost never. Also have radically greater reliability think average ICE not Toyota, at the same time I don't at all think Toyota quality provides a ray of hope for ICE or hybrid. I think even FCA level quality would suffice to produce a model 3 style power train with greater reliability then the most reliable ICE ever made. Battery life seems to be a worry of the past.

As for the small percentage of the public buying, Tesla dominates the money-is-no-object pickiest most aware buyers at the top end segment. The demand for the model 3 at its launch shows that given the chance most people will buy a Tesla- to try to say otherwise refutes the two most solid data points we have. 1. Non compliance cost as no object buyers prefer dominant Tesla- these people live in greater luxury and are less used to inconvenience, its not an issue for them to the point that Tesla S has become a status symbol and dominant player. 2. And its apparently not an issue for a half a million adopters at the mid level willing to plunk down early deposits for a car- didn't even happen for iPhones, greatest auto launch- 500K people putting down the money even before having a chance to see the car and tellingly a iPhone X worth of deposit.

There is a 3rd data point- the heavy duty trucking industry seems to be following the same reservation pattern a place where charging if not handled would be even more of an issue.

And it seems there are still a couple of other points. There is no range issue with Model 3 in higher spec, some fuel cars have about that range. There are also even if slow more charge outlets if you bring the adapter than gas stations (might have to negotiate payment) and also BEV look to have greater range than gas cars if the Roadster is an example and always better performance as you've anticipated.

 

[Viking79]

I hate to say it, but burning some gas in PHEVs will actually save more gas in the short term than BEVs for our society. Let me explain.

My Clarity will probably see 12000 EV miles this year and maybe 3000 gas miles. If I bought a Tesla 3 LR I would still drive the same 15000, but all EV.

A BEV like the Tesla Model 3 LR has more than 4 times the battery capacity as the Clarity PHEV. So if they used battery capacity to make 4 PHEVs with about 50 mile range instead of 1 Model 3 with 300 mile range, they could save 48k gas miles per year instead of only 15k. So for the same battery capacity the PHEVs are saving 3x as much gas, by burning 1/4 miles on gas vs only using the battery capacity in the single car while 3 other people are driving gas. You also only save 1 ICE too, the one in the Tesla. Again, this is for the situation of limited battery supplies like we see now.

So until the extra 50 kwh of batteries cost a lot less than they do today and charging infrastructure is built out, PHEVs make more sense.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

...if they used battery capacity to make 4 PHEVs with about 50 mile range instead of 1 Model 3 with 300 mile range, they could save 48k gas miles per year instead of only 15k. So for the same battery capacity the PHEVs are saving 3x as much gas, by burning 1/4 miles on gas vs only using the battery capacity in the single car while 3 other people are driving gas.

The problem with this argument is it assumes EV makers will look at the amount of batteries they can get, and distribute them among their cars to maximize the total amount of fuel saved.

But that bears not the remotest resemblance to how EV makers design, produce, and sell cars. What EV makers do is decide how much battery capacity they want in a car, estimate what the market for that car at that price is (or decide how many they want to produce, possibly below estimated market demand, like the Bolt EV), and then order batteries from a battery maker to equal that amount of batteries.

With battery supply constrained, EV makers don't redistribute batteries so each car has a smaller amount. They either reduce the number of cars they plan to build, or else simply decide not to put an EV model into production at all.

* * * * *

Furthermore, that argument ignores the reality that people who buy PHEVs are likely to be every bit as interested in reducing the amount of gas they use as those who buy BEVs. This is proven by a study which showed that Volt drivers stop more often to recharge en-route than Leaf owners... because the Volt has a shorter EV range.* Clearly PHEVs with longer range would be more popular, and they'd sell better. That should be the goal of EV advocates; convincing people to buy EVs, whether they're BEVs or PHEVs. If they're PHEVs, then preferably PHEVs with longer ranges, as those will replace more gas-powered miles with electric-powered miles!

*Caveat: That was just one study back in 2012, and it may be that a small sample size skewed the results. However, I haven't seen anything to indicate the conclusion there was wrong.

* * * * *

The solution to inadequate battery supply for EVs isn't to make EVs with smaller battery packs. The solution is for auto makers to build their own factories so they can control their own battery supply levels, as BYD and Tesla have done!
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[101101]

I hate to say it, but burning some gas in PHEVs will actually save more gas in the short term than BEVs for our society. Let me explain.

My Clarity will probably see 12000 EV miles this year and maybe 3000 gas miles. If I bought a Tesla 3 LR I would still drive the same 15000, but all EV.

A BEV like the Tesla Model 3 LR has more than 4 times the battery capacity as the Clarity PHEV. So if they used battery capacity to make 4 PHEVs with about 50 mile range instead of 1 Model 3 with 300 mile range, they could save 48k gas miles per year instead of only 15k. So for the same battery capacity the PHEVs are saving 3x as much gas, by burning 1/4 miles on gas vs only using the battery capacity in the single car while 3 other people are driving gas. You also only save 1 ICE too, the one in the Tesla. Again, this is for the situation of limited battery supplies like we see now.

So until the extra 50 kwh of batteries cost a lot less than they do today and charging infrastructure is built out, PHEVs make more sense.

Interesting perspective, but consider also that over their lives each PHEV may contribute 60K gas miles (if they can make it 20 years at the proposed mix) whereas the BEV will contribute 0. I know you're interested in maybe the first 5 years of the curve so only 15K miles. But cutting the cord on the whole ICE supply chain and having the feeling of psychological freedom especially with home battery backed roof top charging- that really is the way to go. Petro fuel energy needs to go under as fast as humanly possible with such speed that political power and money behind it is destroyed- this group is the source of the real terrorism in the world and when you consider that it runs on pure welfare (never been revenue positive let alone profitable) its pure tribute, it needs a hard over through. Think about how beyond the actually tragedy how utterly stupid beyond belief stuff like 911 was and think about who really brought us that. Think about when they want to tie the survival of their petrol scam to 3rd rail social security with a carbon tax (as Tillerson suggested, )they think they are trading their tribute for hostage taking on the safety net- what needs to happen is their instant disgorging of all the ill gotten gain (theft) they call profit they ever had going back to the beginning with interest yesterday.

 

[Ben Washburn]

It's just hard for me to see full electric anytime soon unless technology changes dramatically, and it all comes down to the range issue. Sure, right now Tesla folks can drive 500 miles a day because there are Tesla superchargers everywhere and hardly any Teslas on the road. And even then they can't pop in, spend 5 minutes, and be going again.

If it takes five minutes to fill a car with gas, but 30 minutes to fill a battery, then you're going to need 6 times as many chargers as pumps. And maybe 12 because in reality folks will pay for an hour, go eat lunch and leave the car there. The same way now they leave the car at the pump when they go inside to buy whatever it is they go buy inside the gas station.

To me, the PHEV is going to be the answer for a long time--at least ten years. Sure, an EV as a second car just for popping around town. But people expect to be able to get in their car and go places. Trying to drive home for Thanksgiving in an EV, if you need an intermediate recharge, would be pure unadulturated hell right now. At least an hour, maybe more, before depleting the battery you'd have to be taking every exit with a chance to recharge hoping to get lucky.

When technology arrives at the point that you can get 250 miles in 15 minutes and current interstate fast food places have something like 25 super-duper-chargers each it'll be practical to just get in the car and blast off. But until then I'm going to want at least one PHEV in the rotation.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

When technology arrives at the point that you can get 250 miles in 15 minutes... it'll be practical to just get in the car and blast off. But until then I'm going to want at least one PHEV in the rotation.

I think EV manufacturers have higher ambitions. A Tesla spokesman once said they were aiming for a 5-to-10 minute charge. I hope to see the average new EV be able to charge 300 miles in 10 minutes within my lifetime. (I'm currently 63.)

But you're likely correct to say that's at least 10 years in the future. EV makers not only have to build cars capable of an ultra-fast-charge, we have to have public for-profit EV chargers which can charge that fast, and do it routinely, day in and day out.

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[Ben Washburn]

I think EV manufacturers have higher ambitions. A Tesla spokesman once said they were aiming for a 5-to-10 minute charge. I hope to see the average new EV be able to charge 300 miles in 10 minutes within my lifetime. (I'm currently 63.)

But you're likely correct to say that's at least 10 years in the future. EV makers not only have to build cars capable of an ultra-fast-charge, we have to have public for-profit EV chargers which can charge that fast, and do it routinely, day in and day out.

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My lifetime too--I'm 'only' 62! But yeah, I'm sure they'll fly by that mark of mine, I'm just saying that's about what they'd have to get to before before I'd go 100% electric and feel comfortable that any time I need to I can get in and go and not worry that I'll be able to find an unoccupied charger. At that point gas stations will almost disappear from the highways and rechargers will all be collected around fast food places, motels, and rest stops.

If McDonald's were smart right now they take every interstate location and call them 'McLectrics' and put in at least ten chargers at each one in a very prominent position in McDonald's colors. It would be overkill at first, but it would firmly establish in the public's mind that McDonald's is the place they can COUNT on stopping and finding an open charger, even with people who don't even have any sort of EV yet. I bet you could put in ten chargers for $10,000 easy; peanuts for a company that size. Make them token driven and folks will stock up with ten tokens @ $1/hr, toss them in the glovebox, and they'd have pre-sold lunch to every EV on the interstate for the next five years.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

My lifetime too--I'm 'only' 62!

That's okay, someday you young wet-behind-the-ears whippersnappers will grow up to be just as mature and wise as I am.

 

[101101]

Ah no, if you have a house and a garage as you well know you charge at home- way better than having to regularly go the gas station.
And the Autonomous EV model as long as its green energy makes this better and faster.

I think EV manufacturers have higher ambitions. A Tesla spokesman once said they were aiming for a 5-to-10 minute charge. I hope to see the average new EV be able to charge 300 miles in 10 minutes within my lifetime. (I'm currently 63.)

But you're likely correct to say that's at least 10 years in the future. EV makers not only have to build cars capable of an ultra-fast-charge, we have to have public for-profit EV chargers which can charge that fast, and do it routinely, day in and day out.

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terd

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Ah no, if you have a house and a garage as you well know you charge at home- way better than having to regularly go the gas station.
And the Autonomous EV model as long as its green energy makes this better and faster.

Well, I think we do sometimes lose sight of the fact that perhaps 95% of EV charging is slow charging at home or at work. Reading some EV discussions, you'd think that EVs can only be charged at fast-charging stations.

But people don't buy cars that meet only 95% of their needs; they buy cars that meet 98-99% of their needs. Joe Average simply isn't going to put up with driving a car that takes 30-45 minutes to "fill up" if driving beyond its normal range, even if there are only a few days a year that he drives that far in a single day.

And we're not going to persuade Joe Average to buy a plug-in EV by shaking our fingers at him and telling him that he "ought to" stop driving a car that burns fossil fuel. We're going to persuade him to buy a plug-in EV by getting his friends, relatives and co-workers to tell him that driving an EV is better (and sooner or later, less expensive) than driving a gasmobile.

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[Ben Washburn]

Ah no, if you have a house and a garage as you well know you charge at home- way better than having to regularly go the gas station.
And the Autonomous EV model as long as its green energy makes this better and faster.


terd

Well, what I'd say is our discussion was in the context of long road trips where charging at home isn't an option. Obviously you're right, for day to day I think recharging at home is always going to be option #1. But until there's a much, much larger recharging infrastructure along the interstates and major highways, and recharging times can be cut down as a minimum to coincide with lunch or something like that, I think the vast majority of folks will always want at least one ICE option in their driveway.

I will say though that my wife and I had really been kicking around the idea of not worrying about that and just renting a car for a trip. We could always find something for $250/wk or less and what's nice is you know you basically have the whole Hertz (or whatever) infrastructure there to support you on a trip. If something happens they take care of it and you can just press on with another car. And its kind of fun trying out different cars from time to time.

 

[Carro con enchufe]

I disagree that having a BEV creates zero ICE miles. Many BEV owners that I have met decide to have an ICE backup car for longer trips that exceed the BEV range, or choose to rent a car for trips. A PHEV owner needs do neither. Either way, a similar amount of ICE miles could be generated, though most rentals won't get 40-50 mpg like the Clarity does.

 

[Ben Washburn]

I agree--having a PHEV gives you the ICE option for those longer trips; it's the perfect solution. With the credits I really can't understand why they haven't exploded. Net of credits I paid $23,506 for a Touring inclusive of the destination fee. That's just crazy--why isn't everybody doing it? I really don't understand.

Anyway, I think it'll be a while before the average family goes all electric.

 

[bfd]

We're a very long way from a tip point in EV travel. As mentioned, the basic infrastructure is just not there yet. Even Tesla - as advanced as they are with charging infrastructure - is still constrained to travel on major interstates as far as fast charging goes. Once one goes off the path, they're just as dependent on the same Level 2 chargers as everyone else. And we all know by now just how many of those there are out in the wild right now. When electricity flows as quickly as gasoline, things will change rapidly, but getting to a tip point before that happens will still take lots of structural changes. It could take as long as 50 years in some places. I think PHEVs will be around for awhile longer.

 

[jeff10236]

In talking about the need to build up infrastructure a lot more before BEV will be practical for everyone (especially as an only car), it is true that we are no where near there for trips and such, but everyone is ignoring a very important area of need... apartments and condos (not to mention townhouses that use parking lots instead of garages and/or small driveways or parking pads). I live in an area with a pretty built up level 2 and level 3 charging infrastructure (compared to other areas anyway), enough so that my PHEV Clarity works while living in an apartment. There are enough places to charge where I'll go anyway (the mall, some grocery stores, some restaurants, etc.) or where I can go to do something I'd do anyway (surf the net at home, or go to the library to surf the net while I charge my car) that I usually keep it in the 20-50 miles worth of charge range (I charge a few times a week, then drive a mix of HV and EV- EV around town, HV above 50mph and usually end up averaging anywhere from 60-90mpg). However, to fully charge a BEV (i.e. far more than 2.5hrs from a 0 charge) would not be possible at available public chargers, and I'd have to make far more stops that aren't very convenient than I already do in order to charge nearly daily without the approximately 50-60% of the miles I run on gas. Most condos, townhouses (with parking lots) and apartments do not have any chargers. The ones that do have maybe 1-4 level 2 chargers for their entire complex. Funding your own charger may not be practical (especially in owned homes without assigned parking or in apartments), may be too expensive (if you have to have the parking lot or a sidewalk dug up would be expensive and may not be allowed for one owner/one spot at a time, while it would make sense to do so when repaving the lot anyway, and doing it for a dozen or more spots instead of one at a time as a tenant/owner has the need has economy of scale benefits), or it may not even be allowed. Until condo and townhouse associations and apartment complexes start putting in a substantial number of chargers in their lots, it just won't be practical to go to an all (or mostly) BEV transportation system. However, once more areas have a more built up public charging network (like where I live, much of the Northeast US, and much of CA), a PHEV with the gas backup will work just fine for those of us in such a living situation.

Of course, like others have said, we need a much more robust nationwide recharging network, and more efficient/quicker DC fast chargers before it will be appealing to the average car buyer. I like the idea (and potential long-term marketing benefits) that was posted in having a fast food restaurant put in chargers (one or two fast chargers and a few level 2 for the average store would be a great idea, the level 2 aren't that expensive, plus maybe a whole line of fast chargers and maybe a dozen lvl 2 at stores just off the major highways). I also don't understand why every mall and major shopping center in America (at least in areas with a lot of PHEVs and BEVs) haven't put in half a dozen level 2 chargers yet.

 

[jeff10236]

Now to directly address the original post, of course hybrids (gas electric) are a bridge tech to all electric (or whatever replacement comes along) and are currently a green technology.

As many (including me) have posted, we are no where near the infrastructure build up we need to go all BEV, and we are years from getting there (unless the feds or a lot of state governments decide to build the network themselves, in a market economy it will be hard to sell the cars without the infrastructure, and it will be hard to get companies to invest in the infrastructure without the cars/demand). Since it will take many years to build the infrastructure, we need cleaner technologies that can use today's infrastructure while we get to the (probably) BEV future. Sure, PHEV are a good way to get there (long range, can gas up, and create demand for building more charging infrastructure), but there are only a handful of options, and most are far more money than the typical family sedan or traditional hybrid (at least without the tax rebates, and since you don't get those up front, you will have to have a larger down payment initially or pay the monthly payments for the full price, not something everyone can do). Further against the PHEV, if you live in an apartment, condo, or townhome that uses a parking lot, not everyone is willing to go out of their way enough to use public charging (as I said in my prior post, that is what I do, and usually go where I'd go otherwise, but normally I may be there for 30min, but I need to hang out for 1.5-2hrs to fully charge my car- most people don't want to have to do that). The gas/electric hybrids are cars that people can buy that use the current fueling network, don't need to be charged if you live somewhere that you can't easily charge at home, have the convenience of fueling quickly on a long trip, yet get much better gas mileage than the most common current tech (the average mid-sized car's EPA numbers are in the upper 20s to 30mpg combined range now, the average compact and subcompact car are maybe 2-5mpg better, few hybrids are under 40mpg, and several, including the Insight are in the 50s). Getting 1/3 higher to almost double the mileage of the competition definitely puts these hybrids in the "green" category by current standards.

There is a saying that is fitting, don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Sure, ideally we'd be all BEV. However, we are far from there. Until then, any tech that greatly cuts carbon and other emissions, and that lessens our reliance on fossil fuels is a good thing.

 

[Ben Washburn]

We're a very long way from a tip point in EV travel. As mentioned, the basic infrastructure is just not there yet. Even Tesla - as advanced as they are with charging infrastructure - is still constrained to travel on major interstates as far as fast charging goes. Once one goes off the path, they're just as dependent on the same Level 2 chargers as everyone else. And we all know by now just how many of those there are out in the wild right now. When electricity flows as quickly as gasoline, things will change rapidly, but getting to a tip point before that happens will still take lots of structural changes. It could take as long as 50 years in some places. I think PHEVs will be around for awhile longer.

I think what might happen is there will be a transition period where it's typical for households to have one EV and one PHEV. It's not that you can't get a gazillion chargers out there, but really they need to be L3 type chargers, or even an LX charger, whatever that will be.

Similar to the transition from wired to wireless--maybe we'll just be at the beginning tipping for that when 5G is fully deployed. And it's the same speed/capacity issue.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

We're a very long way from a tip point in EV travel. As mentioned, the basic infrastructure is just not there yet. Even Tesla - as advanced as they are with charging infrastructure - is still constrained to travel on major interstates as far as fast charging goes. Once one goes off the path, they're just as dependent on the same Level 2 chargers as everyone else.

Well, dependent on non-Tesla DCFCs and slow L1 and L2 chargers. Not only on L2 chargers.

But aside from that minor point, I completely agree with your argument. I've been surprised that the volume of BEV sales has met or even exceeded PHEV sales. Just as you say, if you're going to depend on a single car, then for general use it would be better if it was a PHEV than a BEV.

I guess this just goes to show how many BEVs are owned by people in families with multiple cars, of which at least one is a gasmobile. Not that this should be news to most people reading these comments; there has been a lot of talk over the years about the "hybrid garage", containing one BEV and one gasmobile.

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