Is there a Model 3 almost-owners welcome area?

[ponzu]

For those who got the long awaited "in 3 to 6 weeks your wildest dreams will come true" notification email. A place to ask the final "should I or shouldn't I?", to get the cold feet warm, a pat on the back, a "welcome to the club, son"?

For I just got the email, and what I keep hearing from friends (friends?) is "don't do it". Sour grapes? Maybe. Hopefully. What do they know, right? So the production got shut down for a few days. So what. Anything Elon does must be great, right? Now I can think of my car as being part of the second production run. Right?

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I certainly don't want to discourage you from starting a discussion on this subject here. However, if you really want to know what other Model 3 reservation holders are thinking, you can find several (perhaps many) discussion threads on that exact topic at the Tesla Motors Club forum. There is such a large concentration of Tesla enthusiasts there that it's hard for any newer forum (like this one) to compete.

Here is one discussion there:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...rigger-what-are-some-of-your-concerns.113022/
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[Pushmi-Pullyu]

For I just got the email, and what I keep hearing from friends (friends?) is "don't do it". Sour grapes? Maybe. Hopefully. What do they know, right? So the production got shut down for a few days. So what. Anything Elon does must be great, right? Now I can think of my car as being part of the second production run. Right?

Some... well, many... Tesla reservation holders have held off converting their reservation to an order during the first few months of production for a new model (not just the Model 3, but other Tesla models also) because Tesla does tend to rush its new models into production before all the bugs are worked out. So that may be a rational and reasonable reason to delay your order.

But just because the production line got shut down for a few days? That shouldn't even be on anybody's radar! It's entirely predictable, and inevitable, that Tesla will occasionally have to shut the line down, as they continue to ramp up the speed of production. As they say: "A chain is only as strong as its weakest link." And a production line is only as fast as its slowest station can work. As a production line continues to be sped up, new bottlenecks will continue to appear. When a new one appears, it may well be necessary to shut the line down to change things at that slow station; perhaps changing the assembly procedure, perhaps moving some of what that station does to other stations, or perhaps splitting that one station up into two. Any of those changes will probably require at least reprogramming some of the robot assembly arms, and may require physically moving some of the robot arms or other machinery around.

If your friends are saying you shouldn't "pull the trigger" on buying a TM3 just because of one of these shutdowns... then maybe you need smarter friends!
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[ponzu]

I certainly don't want to discourage you from starting a discussion on this subject here. However, if you really want to know what other Model 3 reservation holders are thinking, you can find several (perhaps many) discussion threads on that exact topic at the Tesla Motors Club forum. There is such a large concentration of Tesla enthusiasts there that it's hard for any newer forum (like this one) to compete.

Here is one discussion there:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...rigger-what-are-some-of-your-concerns.113022/
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Thanks!

 

[ponzu]

Some... well, many... Tesla reservation holders have held off converting their reservation to an order during the first few months of production for a new model (not just the Model 3, but other Tesla models also) because Tesla does tend to rush its new models into production before all the bugs are worked out. So that may be a rational and reasonable reason to delay your order.

But just because the production line got shut down for a few days? That shouldn't even be on anybody's radar! It's entirely predictable, and inevitable, that Tesla will occasionally have to shut the line down, as they continue to ramp up the speed of production. As they say: "A chain is only as strong as its weakest link." And a production line is only as fast as its slowest station can work. As a production line continues to be sped up, new bottlenecks will continue to appear. When a new one appears, it may well be necessary to shut the line down to change things at that slow station; perhaps changing the assembly procedure, perhaps moving some of what that station does to other stations, or perhaps splitting that one station up into two. Any of those changes will probably require at least reprogramming some of the robot assembly arms, and may require physically moving some of the robot arms or other machinery around.

If your friends are saying you shouldn't "pull the trigger" on buying a TM3 just because of one of these shutdowns... then maybe you need smarter friends!
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Are we still in the first few months? When did the production start and when will the first few months be over? Will the balloon go up? Will the flag be waved? "First few months are over, all clear" I doubt that. The $7.5 K tax credit seems to be the deal breaker to most if not all, I would think it is to me. I think the real calculation going on in most people's heads is what will come first: will the Congress and Trump kill the tax credit, will Tesla sell 200K units, or will Tesla iron out all the bugs.

I agree that the line shut down is not a big deal.

On the other hand, if I disliked Tesla or people who are planning on buying a Tesla, it would be a big deal to me. Either perspective is probably tinted by our attitudes.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Are we still in the first few months? When did the production start and when will the first few months be over? Will the balloon go up? Will the flag be waved? "First few months are over, all clear" I doubt that.

Obviously we're not still in the first few months after the official start of production, which was back in June or July 2017. But it has been argued, and I think reasonably so, that it's a better fit to the progress that Tesla has made if you go by their previous guidance, and not the accelerated guidance, and take note that significant ramping up of production didn't get started until December 2017. By that timeline, then yes, we are still in the first few months of actual mass production.

Now, I'm not trying to say that this is the "one true way" to look at the situation; it's just an opinion which I happen to share. But I hope you'll agree that it's at least an interesting and possibly helpful way of looking at the situation.

However, you're the one with a Tesla Model 3 reservation, not me (I only wish!); so it's your opinion that counts here!
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[ponzu]

However, you're the one with a Tesla Model 3 reservation, not me (I only wish!); so it's your opinion that counts here!
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I wonder how many people are looking at a person who received an invitation to configure the Model 3 and is hesitating, thinking: "You stupid ungrateful so and so..."

 

[WadeTyhon]

I wonder how many people are looking at a person who received an invitation to configure the Model 3 and is hesitating, thinking: "You stupid ungrateful so and so..."

We are waiting patiently! And each month that goes by makes it less likely we will get an invitation to configure this year. Or if we do, the short range model (the one we can reasonably afford) will not be available. Certainly not with the full rebate.

The Texas EV rebate is about to go into effect and it officially does not seem to cover Tesla (again! This stupid state of mine...)

So trying to decide what to do at this point.

GM has officially said that they expect to hit 200,000 in Q3. So with the 7500 rebate ending for Tesla and GM this year... we gotta decide by this fall what to do.

Going with a new Volt is certainly the cheapest option since we could get the full state and federal rebate this year.

But her heart is also set on a Model 3. But if we're talking $10k+ more just in the loss of the rebate... that stings. It's a tough choice. If she decides she wants to go with the Model 3, we may just get neither this year.

We could potentially hold on to the 2013 Volt for another 2 years since it'll be paid off. Then pick up a SR 3 once it's available or maybe a used LR 3.

 

[Domenick]

For those who got the long awaited "in 3 to 6 weeks your wildest dreams will come true" notification email. A place to ask the final "should I or shouldn't I?", to get the cold feet warm, a pat on the back, a "welcome to the club, son"?

For I just got the email, and what I keep hearing from friends (friends?) is "don't do it". Sour grapes? Maybe. Hopefully. What do they know, right? So the production got shut down for a few days. So what. Anything Elon does must be great, right? Now I can think of my car as being part of the second production run. Right?

I'm probably a bit pro-Tesla biased, but if I got the notification now, I would definitely go for it. Quality -- panels gaps, etc -- has supposedly improved, and is becoming more consistent. I would definitely inspect it carefully at delivery and have them correct anything I found wanting.

I only had a few minutes behind the wheel a few months back, but I really enjoyed the driving experience. And, of course, if you get it now, you'll be able to take advantage of the tax credit.

The only reason I'd consider waiting now is if I wanted something that hasn't been made available yet, like all wheel drive, or white seats.

 

[Domenick]

We are waiting patiently! And each month that goes by makes it less likely we will get an invitation to configure this year.

When did you reserve?

The Texas EV rebate is about to go into effect and it officially does not seem to cover Tesla (again! This stupid state of mine...)

I hadn't heard about the new Texas rebate. How much is it, and how did they exclude Tesla this time? (I'm guessing by stipulating it has to be bought from an independent dealer, because those guys donate generously to lawmakers.)

 

[WadeTyhon]

When did you reserve?


I hadn't heard about the new Texas rebate. How much is it, and how did they exclude Tesla this time? (I'm guessing by stipulating it has to be bought from an independent dealer, because those guys donate generously to lawmakers.)

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/terp#LDPLI
"The Light-Duty Motor Vehicle Purchase or Lease Incentive Program (LDPLIP) will provide rebate incentives statewide to persons who purchase or lease an eligible new light-duty motor vehicle powered by compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), or hydrogen fuel cells or other electric drives (plug-in or plug-in hybrid). Only vehicles purchased in Texas are eligible for the incentive."

No HFCV are sold in Texas that I'm aware of and almost no CNG or LPG vehicles are sold. So effectively it's just a Plug-In rebate.

The new Texas rebate is 2,500 last I heard, just like the one available between 2014 and 2016. But applications don't open until this summer.

One of the nice things about the previous Texas rebate is that it applied to new and used vehicles so long as they were purchased at a Texas dealership. So it was possible to get the rebate on a used Tesla. But the new rebate is new vehicles only. And only purchased in Texas.

Since Tesla cannot sell directly in our state, it seems that they will not apply.

The nice thing about the Texas rebate though is they just send you a rebate check 30-60 days after your purchase. No waiting for Tax season.

Oh, and we didn't reserve until late February 2017 I believe. So we're waaaay back in the list. -_-

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I wonder how many people are looking at a person who received an invitation to configure the Model 3 and is hesitating, thinking: "You stupid ungrateful so and so..."

Not sure why anyone would take that attitude. If you put off converting your reservation to an order, then that's like someone who's standing in a queue deciding to sit in place and wave everyone behind him on ahead. Nobody has to wait on him!

Of course, since humans are not rational animals, some people no doubt will find some unreasonable excuse for getting upset...
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