Tony Seba says 2025 is the global end of ICE cars. I think that's 2 years too conservative.
I think Model 2 will be available in volume in late 2022. This will be a vehicle better than the Model 3 in every way with minimum 300 mile range (likely over 353 mile range) for 25k with 25% margins that looks set to fast charge to 150 miles in 7 minutes on a built out Tesla charger network that will be available in volumes greater than ID3 and ID4 combined- available in volumes greater than Golf sold by a company with a market cap greater than the rest of the auto industry combined. Also those batteries based on what Dahn's just published comments will be good for 4.5 million to 5.2 million at minimum worst case ranges but possibly unlimited miles if people recharge after using between 88 and 176 miles on average (for 353 mile range new model 3) and stats for motors are already 1 million miles essentially maintenance free.
Its true we can't know this for sure but it looks like it won't be possible to sell new Toyota or Honda(s) or Hyundai(s) that aren't 100% BEV (non hydrogen- only total fools still talk the hydrogen bs.) So that is saying something because these weren't cancer ridden profit first relics but companies that put the quality of the product first.
This won't be- oh Tesla is 10 years ahead so legacy can still sell new Toyotas and Camrys from 10 years ago at a steep enough discount. That is not what is happening. It would be like trying to sell a 1973 Honda Civic 3 cylinder or a 1976 Toyota Corolla into today's ICE market as new cars. Worse really. This will be a categorical break worse than Blackberry vs iPhone. Tony modeled it correctly with buggies vs cars but even faster because people are already familiar with cars. No, existing ICE cars don't blink out over night but people also won't keep them long and won't like the resale value.
Diesel trucks and natural gas utilities (through battery backed utilities will also be hit,) also get wiped out fast- these companies don't continue to operate they go out of business and never come back again. The fossil fuel industry never really was profitable- for 50 or 70 years its been propped up by government welfare. But now it will be clear there is steep ever declining revenue and sales volume. They won't be able to fake profits with this, they couldn't even prior to covid- it wasn't an idiotic shale boom it was a global green boom. But when its clear that industry will never have even fake profits again (as it will be within the next 2 years) their in the ground fake always stranded 'assets' will be written off and the fossil fuel derivatives bubble will pop along with 75% of all the assets on the books of every fossil fuel company and their stock values will decline permanently by as much over night. The boards and the managements of these firms will be vacated and the companies increasingly nationalized. Blackrock won't do much better.
US car dealerships will fail- essentially all of them- that model isn't needed anymore. Most gas stations will start to fail- they won't become charger stations because its just cheaper and better to charge elsewhere. Fossil fuel companies as much as they try to bribe politicians or hide behind pensions won't be able to convert their rent seeking cost structures over because they will need and want too much to be competitive. They aren't indespensible and will be flushed.
Look at legacy makes non adaptive responses. Ford defunding its EV programs while doing millions of green ads on youtube saying its the only green US auto maker which is false on its face and obvious false advertising in trying to fish for another bailout when it hasn't paid off its last bailout- Ford has only compliance numbers planned for its Mustang and its yet to be built electric Ford F150 plant looks tiny. GM did the fizzled Nikola noise making and now its launching its electric hummer reveal on the same day as Tesla releases FSD- again its more noise making to try to keep their stock value from reflecting their written in stone actual near future values.
All they have is noise making. Its like trying to send up a smoke screen to hide that they are out of commission to make their current situation some how look less foreseeable and more sudden and their soon to start hand out begging look more defensible.
I think Model 2 will be available in volume in late 2022. This will be a vehicle better than the Model 3 in every way with minimum 300 mile range (likely over 353 mile range) for 25k with 25% margins that looks set to fast charge to 150 miles in 7 minutes on a built out Tesla charger network that will be available in volumes greater than ID3 and ID4 combined- available in volumes greater than Golf sold by a company with a market cap greater than the rest of the auto industry combined. Also those batteries based on what Dahn's just published comments will be good for 4.5 million to 5.2 million at minimum worst case ranges but possibly unlimited miles if people recharge after using between 88 and 176 miles on average (for 353 mile range new model 3) and stats for motors are already 1 million miles essentially maintenance free.
Its true we can't know this for sure but it looks like it won't be possible to sell new Toyota or Honda(s) or Hyundai(s) that aren't 100% BEV (non hydrogen- only total fools still talk the hydrogen bs.) So that is saying something because these weren't cancer ridden profit first relics but companies that put the quality of the product first.
This won't be- oh Tesla is 10 years ahead so legacy can still sell new Toyotas and Camrys from 10 years ago at a steep enough discount. That is not what is happening. It would be like trying to sell a 1973 Honda Civic 3 cylinder or a 1976 Toyota Corolla into today's ICE market as new cars. Worse really. This will be a categorical break worse than Blackberry vs iPhone. Tony modeled it correctly with buggies vs cars but even faster because people are already familiar with cars. No, existing ICE cars don't blink out over night but people also won't keep them long and won't like the resale value.
Diesel trucks and natural gas utilities (through battery backed utilities will also be hit,) also get wiped out fast- these companies don't continue to operate they go out of business and never come back again. The fossil fuel industry never really was profitable- for 50 or 70 years its been propped up by government welfare. But now it will be clear there is steep ever declining revenue and sales volume. They won't be able to fake profits with this, they couldn't even prior to covid- it wasn't an idiotic shale boom it was a global green boom. But when its clear that industry will never have even fake profits again (as it will be within the next 2 years) their in the ground fake always stranded 'assets' will be written off and the fossil fuel derivatives bubble will pop along with 75% of all the assets on the books of every fossil fuel company and their stock values will decline permanently by as much over night. The boards and the managements of these firms will be vacated and the companies increasingly nationalized. Blackrock won't do much better.
US car dealerships will fail- essentially all of them- that model isn't needed anymore. Most gas stations will start to fail- they won't become charger stations because its just cheaper and better to charge elsewhere. Fossil fuel companies as much as they try to bribe politicians or hide behind pensions won't be able to convert their rent seeking cost structures over because they will need and want too much to be competitive. They aren't indespensible and will be flushed.
Look at legacy makes non adaptive responses. Ford defunding its EV programs while doing millions of green ads on youtube saying its the only green US auto maker which is false on its face and obvious false advertising in trying to fish for another bailout when it hasn't paid off its last bailout- Ford has only compliance numbers planned for its Mustang and its yet to be built electric Ford F150 plant looks tiny. GM did the fizzled Nikola noise making and now its launching its electric hummer reveal on the same day as Tesla releases FSD- again its more noise making to try to keep their stock value from reflecting their written in stone actual near future values.
All they have is noise making. Its like trying to send up a smoke screen to hide that they are out of commission to make their current situation some how look less foreseeable and more sudden and their soon to start hand out begging look more defensible.
