I do not disagree with your technical points. Also the I-Pace may sell well initially as they are only legitimate competitor to the Model S now. What I am wondering about is the sustainability of JLR in this market. You need volumes to drive down costs of the battery pack and Tesla will do that as they want to be vertically integrated and that they will also use the battery packs for Solar City. So they can afford to invest in battery technology as opposed to having vendors do it. Now if the Tata's believe that a BEV is going to sell in India and there are some economies of scale that can be shared, JLR may remain competitive. If not JLR may have a tough fight to stay relevant.
Again, I am layperson and may not have the business and technical knowledge that others in this forum have, but I can see headwinds for JLR even though they are an early mover. Again, I may be wrong, but if they can leverage the relationship with Wyamo, they could have another trick that could help them.
Your analysis comes from the standpoint of Tesla's business plan. Jaguar has a completely different business plan for the I-Pace. Jaguar shared the development and engineering of the chassis with Magna which greatly reduced their "sunk cost", they also got a program investment from Waymo which basically de-risked the program by 50%. Jaguar buys the complete battery pack from LG, for a fixed price. They also have a fixed price contract with Magna for their part of the program. I would say Jaguar has an exact cost per unit in hand now. If Magna struggles to build the I-pace it will be a cost to their bottom line, likewise LG with the battery packs. Jaguar's cost risk is all in distribution, sales, service, and warranty. I do not know the internals of Jaguars accounting and how much sunk cost of the I-pace development will be put towards the I-Pace, and how much will be spread to the 2 other products going through development right now that will use the chassis, and drive units from the I-Pace. Now, there are two kinds of profit in the auto business, there is gross profit, which is basically the difference between the cost of the parts and labor to build the car, and the wholesale price Jaguar sells them to the dealer for. In this area I think Jaguar will see margin from #001 that rolls off the line, as you remember they have fixed cost bids from LG and Magna. Initially I think LG, and Magna will take a beating, until they get production up to a profit sustaining rate for them. Again, I have no idea what that profitable production rate is. Now onto the net profit, or program cash flow positive... If Jaguar is able to distribute, sell and service the I-Pace on the budgets they have set, they will get cash flow positive after paying for their initial marketing efforts, and dealer/distributer training investments. I would guess this will take 2-5K units, at that point the program can start paying back sunk cost, which I believe for Jaguar was somewhere in the neighborhood of $300M after the $200M Waymo put in, again not sure how much of that cost they will push to other projects, as that is really an internal accounting question.
For right now Jaguar has more orders then they can deal with and it seems like most people are taking the HSE and First Edition models (higher price and margin), as there is already a production constraint on the "signature series headlights" so they have reshuffled the production schedule, moving the HSE and First Edition deliveries back 2 weeks, while pulling ahead the base model orders with the lesser detailed headlights. This change just happened on July 4th, so fresh off the presses. Jaguar emailed all the people with orders, and gave an explanation, and what it means schedule wise. I have to say, Jaguar communication is the best I have seen in the car industry, and this is not the first car I have custom ordered. I think when Jaguar set up the I-Pace program 4 years ago, they did not expect the overwhelmingly positive response they have gotten, which really means the increased order volume, and the higher take rate then expected on the high end models is going to turn their bottom line black even sooner then they expected. Also for Magna, because of the recognition they received on the I-Pace program they have now signed a HUGE BEV contract with BAIC in China... Its really a win- win for all involved.
Now, when people tell me a car has to be high production to make a profit, I first chuckle, and look to Bowling Green Kentucky where GM makes the Corvette, in its own factory, and with its own private track, and in volumes of around 3 K per month. The Corvette is very high margin for GM, even though it has to pay for a whole factory, and an mostly independent engineering team. How about the Mercedes G wagon, that is made in even smaller quantities (again by Magna) and is another highly profitable low volume program.
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