Elon Musk caught up in his own BS

[David Green]

Like many, I was listening to the Q2 earnings call last week, and noticed that Elon Musk often gets caught up in his own BS, and while his fans really pay no attention to the details, I tend to listen and dissect what is said. I posted the other day about a few of the "interesting misses" but this one I kept thinking about and now that i have seen the transcript of the call it was a serious mis-step for Elon. Elon was asked about Tesla's previous guidance of 1M cars in 2020, to which his answer was complete BS, but interesting at the same time. Here is the question and Elon's answer...



Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal

Hi. Thanks for the call. Question for you. Do you still plan to make a total of 1 million vehicles in the calendar year of 2020?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

I think so, yeah. If it's not a million, it's going to be pretty close. I'd say if it's not a million it'd probably be 750,000 or something like that in 2020. So, we're aiming for a million, 2020, but somewhere between half million and a million seems pretty likely.

Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal

Where do you get the capacity to do that?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

There's this place called Shanghai.

Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal

OK. Shanghai will be important for that, that goal?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yeah.



Now, this is very interesting, because the shareholder letter guides that the Shanghai facility will start construction in 3 quarters, and begin production in 3 years. OK guys, 3 years from today is Aug 2021, so obviously this production will not be a factor in 2020's numbers... What what Elon talking about? Bulls wonder why Bears are so skeptical of Elon, well here you go, Obviously this answer to Mr Higgins question is complete BS. Elon even tried to be a bit of a smarta$$ in his answer "Theres this place called Shanghai" when the accompanying shareholders letter clearly says production in Shanghai is not planned to start until late 2021 (and even that is Tesla-Elon time, so 2022 more likely). Here is the Tesla estimated timeline of GF3 from the shareholder letter.

"In July, we announced our plan to build a wholly Tesla-owned Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai – our first Gigafactory outside the US. We are excited about this opportunity, as China is by far the largest EV market in the world and Chinese support for electric vehicles has been exceptionally strong. Initial capacity is expected to be roughly 250,000 vehicles and battery packs per year, and will grow to 500,000, with the first cars expected to roll off the production line in about three years."


Bottom Line, Tesla will not reach production of 1M in 2020, or 2021, this was just Elon making stuff up... BTW, how is Tesla's guided 500K for 2018 looking so far?

 

[JyChevyVolt]

Like many, I was listening to the Q2 earnings call last week, and noticed that Elon Musk often gets caught up in his own BS, and while his fans really pay no attention to the details, I tend to listen and dissect what is said. I posted the other day about a few of the "interesting misses" but this one I kept thinking about and now that i have seen the transcript of the call it was a serious mis-step for Elon. Elon was asked about Tesla's previous guidance of 1M cars in 2020, to which his answer was complete BS, but interesting at the same time. Here is the question and Elon's answer...



Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal

Hi. Thanks for the call. Question for you. Do you still plan to make a total of 1 million vehicles in the calendar year of 2020?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

I think so, yeah. If it's not a million, it's going to be pretty close. I'd say if it's not a million it'd probably be 750,000 or something like that in 2020. So, we're aiming for a million, 2020, but somewhere between half million and a million seems pretty likely.

Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal

Where do you get the capacity to do that?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

There's this place called Shanghai.

Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal

OK. Shanghai will be important for that, that goal?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yeah.



Now, this is very interesting, because the shareholder letter guides that the Shanghai facility will start construction in 3 quarters, and begin production in 3 years. OK guys, 3 years from today is Aug 2021, so obviously this production will not be a factor in 2020's numbers... What what Elon talking about? Bulls wonder why Bears are so skeptical of Elon, well here you go, Obviously this answer to Mr Higgins question is complete BS. Elon even tried to be a bit of a smarta$$ in his answer "Theres this place called Shanghai" when the accompanying shareholders letter clearly says production in Shanghai is not planned to start until late 2021 (and even that is Tesla-Elon time, so 2022 more likely). Here is the Tesla estimated timeline of GF3 from the shareholder letter.

"In July, we announced our plan to build a wholly Tesla-owned Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai – our first Gigafactory outside the US. We are excited about this opportunity, as China is by far the largest EV market in the world and Chinese support for electric vehicles has been exceptionally strong. Initial capacity is expected to be roughly 250,000 vehicles and battery packs per year, and will grow to 500,000, with the first cars expected to roll off the production line in about three years."


Bottom Line, Tesla will not reach production of 1M in 2020, or 2021, this was just Elon making stuff up... BTW, how is Tesla's guided 500K for 2018 looking so far?

Wow, excellent finding. It's just Musk catering to his fan base. There is so many broken promise and timeline, it's become a joke.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

19 threads for no purpose other than to post anti-Tesla FUD and spread Tesla Death Cult smear campaigns.

pp, that is real funny! I have not seen you pop up in 101101's threads to counter his delirium! He probably has 190 thread.
David'd thread have some substance compared to 101101's threads.

In this instance, Elon didn't think the WSJ journalist will turn out as sharp as he did. Elon probably thought, it is another numb nut like Zach Shahan or the hyperchange guy. So Elon got tangled up in his many lies within the same day! Had he knew, he would have instructed to not let him in on the call.
Not that it's something new for him. There is probably more than 19 clear lies that we can list that Elon has told the world.
The crazy par is that despite all these, he is still roaming free while many rot in jails.

 

[David Green]

Wow, excellent finding. It's just Musk catering to his fan base. There is so many broken promise and timeline, it's become a joke.

There are other fibs in the conference call, but I am waiting for the 10Q to post the other confirmations... The 10Q is really the form that matters, and I think there will be more then a few edits from the shareholders letter before Tesla publishes the 10Q.

 

[David Green]

pp, that is real funny! I have not seen you pop up in 101101's threads to counter his delirium! He probably has 190 thread.
David'd thread have some substance compared to 101101's threads.

In this instance, Elon didn't think the WSJ journalist will turn out as sharp as he did. Elon probably thought, it is another numb nut like Zach Shahan or the hyperchange guy. So Elon got tangled up in his many lies within the same day! Had he knew, he would have instructed to not let him in on the call.
Not that it's something new for him. There is probably more than 19 clear lies that we can list that Elon has told the world.
The crazy par is that despite all these, he is still roaming free while many rot in jails.

Did anyone else notice this conference call was a bit staged? They just happened to start with the 2 analysts that Elon so insulted on the last call, and Elon comes up with a nice, apology to set the tone. Then the long answers that went way off topic, just eating time so less analysts made it on the call... Then ending with 2 friendlies, Zach, who's journalistic work is garbage IMO, and over to Gali, who I think is a bozo, but I actually think he is trying to create value (I could see myself liking Gali at some point in the future once he grows up). Botton line, 2 TSLA shareholders for the last 2 question, which I find highly suspect.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

pp, that is real funny! I have not seen you pop up in 101101's threads to counter his delirium!

Then quite clearly you're not looking at 101101's early threads. You just shot yourself in the foot there, dude!

But 101101's posts are so frequent that these days I usually just ignore them. I'm not really concerned with anyone actually believing anything posted by our resident "forum eccentric".

David's thread have some substance compared to 101101's threads.

Well, David "Green" writes his conspiracy theories and FUD more plausibly, which is why I as well as others push back on his FUD so firmly. Yours, too. Mr. self-admitted TSLA shorter.

...another numb nut like Zach Shahan...

Comparison between your shorter FUD posts vs. Zach's very well informed articles calling out and exposing the anti-Tesla smear campaigners... well, as Sancho Panza said in "Man of La Mancha":

"Whether the stone hits the pitcher or the pitcher hits the stone, it's going to be bad for the pitcher."​

Hint: You're the pitcher in this scenario, Mr. Disinformation-monger. Zach is the stone.

And that calls for another link to Zachary Shahan's excellent, penetrating, well-informed exposé of current anti-Tesla FUDster activity by Big Oil shills and TSLA shorters: "Tesla Shorts Are Scared, Exposed, & Desperate — Memo To Media: Don’t Be Duped"

That article is well worth reading at least twice by every real EV supporter and Tesla fan... but then, I repeat myself.

The crazy par is that despite all these, he is still roaming free while many rot in jails.

Too bad they don't throw in jail people who knowingly post disinformation on social media in blatant and greedy attempts to manipulate stock prices and smear the good reputation of companies like Tesla which are genuinely trying to make the world a better place.

As someone said, anti-Tesla FUDsters first betting on Tesla to fail by shorting TSLA, then spreading their smear campaigns on social media in an attempt to make that happen, is like betting on a horse to lose a race, then doping it to make sure that happens. People who rig a race like that are put in jail, if they're caught.

Here's hoping that the laws regarding stock fraud are changed, and soon.

It's also a true travesty of justice that when one of the leaders of those promoting anti-Tesla smear campaigns is outed as a manager for a Big Oil investments -- the one calling himself "Montana Skeptic" -- the worst thing that happens is he's forced to delete his twitter account. By rights, he ought to be in jail right now. Surely even under current laws, that's illegal, fraudulent, and an SEC violation? At least, I hope so!

 

[David Green]

19 threads for no purpose other than to post anti-Tesla FUD and spread Tesla Death Cult smear campaigns.

How does this disinformation-monger have this kind of time, when he claims to have a full-time job running a construction company, and if you believe all his name-dropping posts, time to rub shoulders with the Blue Angels, frequently tour auto assembly factories, and work on pit crews of gasmobile race cars?

Disinformation? Please go through the 19 posts you listed, and highlight the parts you feel are disinformation, or not true? The US Navy Blue Angels come to Seattle every year for Seafair activities, during this time the pilots, and crews attend several fund raising dinners, to which we have attended multiple. We believe in supporting the community, and attend many of these fund raising events, but Seafair is extra special for our family. BTW, I volunteered on both car and boat racing teams, its was pretty fun, and I leaned a lot about attention to detail, and teamwork.

A clue may be found with the recent outing of prominent anti-Tesla smear campaigner "Montana Skeptic". He was recently outed as the manager of Big Oil investment funding. Does David "Green" have some sort of hidden agenda motivated by payments from Big Oil? If so, that would explain why he's able to devote so much time and effort to his incessant Tesla smear campaigns. And not only his posts here; I recently counted no less than 41 of his Tesla smear campaign posts to one single Clean Technica article!

One thing is very, very certain: David "Green" is no fan of EVs, nor any supporter of the EV revolution. Very clearly he's a bitter opponent of everything this forum stands for.

That is a pretty far reaching statement... Unlike you, I have an EV on order, and spend quite a bit of my time promoting EV's to my family and friends. I have already helped 2 people this year buy their first EV... So think you are confusing "not an EV fan" with "not a Tesla fan", I am totally a fan of EV's... And as I have said many times, if Tesla build a quality EV, with a look and style that works for my family, I would buy one... Unfortunately for right now, Tesla does not have any products that meet our standards.

​

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Domenick, our moderator, has requested that I put David "Green" on Ignore.

Can't say that I relish the idea of him being allowed to post his FUD without anyone pushing back, but it will certainly be better for my blood pressure.

​

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Hey! I like the way "Ignore" functions now a lot better than when I first tried using it, a few months ago. Then, the forum software didn't show when someone on Ignore had posted to a thread. That make it rather hard to follow a conversation which included anyone on Ignore; you couldn't even see that someone was responding to something the Ignored person said! Also, if I recall, it didn't even show threads created by the Ignored person.

I'm glad someone "turned down" the strength of the Ignore function here. This makes it much more usable than it was before.

If you're responsible for that, Domenick, then thank you very much!

 

[David Green]

Domenick, our moderator, has requested that I put David "Green" on Ignore.

Can't say that I relish the idea of him being allowed to post his FUD without anyone pushing back, but it will certainly be better for my blood pressure.

​

I appreciate Domenick having you ignore me, as I would rather engage in discussion whether agreeing or disagreeing folks then the daily full broadside of personal insults that do not even relate to the topic being discussed. This forum has no effect whatsoever on my blood pressure, I just get a laugh out of some of the silly things posted... At the end of the day, this is just online banter, and really not life altering for any of us.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

There are other fibs in the conference call, but I am waiting for the 10Q to post the other confirmations... The 10Q is really the form that matters, and I think there will be more then a few edits from the shareholders letter before Tesla publishes the 10Q.

There is one already posted by Marketwatch. The revenue comps are bogus due to accounting rule changes that Tesla implemented this quarter, just like 99% of other Tesla comparisons.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/baeb55ab-e2a3-3c95-8087-7a32e539c922/tesla’s-revenue-growth-looks.html

Elon really excels in two things here: Cherry picking, and comparing apples to oranges. if these don't work, just come up with some numbers from nowhere and compare them in the way out future.

 

[David Green]

There is one already posted by Marketwatch. The revenue comps are bogus due to accounting rule changes that Tesla implemented this quarter, just like 99% of other Tesla comparisons.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/baeb55ab-e2a3-3c95-8087-7a32e539c922/tesla’s-revenue-growth-looks.html

Elon really excels in two things here: Cherry picking, and comparing apples to oranges. if these don't work, just come up with some numbers from nowhere and compare them in the way out future.

Regardless of the accounting changes the last couple quarters, Tesla has has massive production and sales growth. Stock wise TSLA is still massively overvalued, and there is no fundamental that makes sense of the current valuation, that being said Tesla carries a lot of hype, and companies that survive on hype usually go on until there is a change in economics, this may be happening now... For whatever reason we are seeing home sales slow, and non tech companies start to tighten their belts. Q3, and Q4 2018 are not as interesting to me as the Q1, and Q2 2019 when Tesla has to start exporting high price Model 3, and selling the promised 35K model. This will be very telling, also I was thinking Tesla would be able to con investors into another capital raise to build in China, but the fact they are building bank loans is great, they will have to submit budgets, and valuation, and those loans will only fund as construction is completed and liens released, so Tesla will not be able to rob from that cash pile to fund current operations. I am sure Tesla's main suppliers, and contractors are watching this cash situation closely, as ultimately their balance sheet has become much weaker in the last 2 quarters.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

For whatever reason we are seeing home sales slow, and non tech companies start to tighten their belts.

It's not for whatever reason. Quantitative tightening is just beginning. ~$2.4T of equities purchased by feds with money created out of thin air is being withdrawn now. I think only about $120B has been withdrawn so far. Interest rates have also risen. What made sense at 4% doesn't make sense at 5% for many businesses.
So, I'd say there is a valid macro reason at play. How long Fed keeps up with this QT is the key.

Q3, and Q4 2018 are not as interesting to me as the Q1, and Q2 2019 when Tesla has to start exploring high price Model 3, and selling the promised 35K model. This will be very telling, also I was thinking Tesla would be able to con investors into another capital raise to build in China, but the fact they are building bank loans is great, they will have to submit budgets, and valuation, and those loans will only fund as construction is completed and liens released, so Tesla will not be able to rob from that cash pile to fund current operations. I am sure Tesla's main suppliers, and contractors are watching this cash situation closely, as ultimately their balance sheet has become much weaker in the last 2 quarters.

Elon saying he won't raise capital means nothing. In the past, he has said that and raised capital within 2 months.
When Elon says anything, I immediately discount it 100%! May be it isn't a good idea, but it's like a spontaneous reaction I have

 

[David Green]

It's not for whatever reason. Quantitative tightening is just beginning. ~$2.4T of equities purchased by feds with money created out of thin air is being withdrawn now. I think only about $120B has been withdrawn so far. Interest rates have also risen. What made sense at 4% doesn't make sense at 5% for many businesses.
So, I'd say there is a valid macro reason at play. How long Fed keeps up with this QT is the key.


Elon saying he won't raise capital means nothing. In the past, he has said that and raised capital within 2 months.
When Elon says anything, I immediately discount it 100%! May be it isn't a good idea, but it's like a spontaneous reaction I have

Yes, as rates go up that changes things, we have been living with artificially low interest rates since the recession, I have always felt a normalized market is when home mortgages are 5-7% When we built our current house in 2005, 5.5% was the lowest rate available, and I have an over 800 credit score with less then 20% debt to income ratio. We need to get back to that and see just how strong the economy really is, and how much of our economic growth is just based on the artificially low interest rates.

Yes, I can remember Elon saying no upcoming raise, and then did the 1.8B junk bonds... He also promised profit a few times, and the cross country Autopilot trip, started mid 2016... haha!

 

[Rex B]

 

[David Green]

Just another thing Tesla fans cribbed from old Montana Skeptic... Here is the original...

 

[Domenick]

This looks like as good a place as any to leave this.

 

[bwilson4web]

<GROAN> Godwin's Law ist Kaput! </GROAN>

My understanding is the SEC has a '3 day' rule for sharing official communications about news impacting the stock price. We should see the first entries about going private at the SEC web site either Friday, Aug 10, or Monday, Aug 13.

I just checked the SEC site and found substantial, detailed, financial data filed Monday, 2018-08-06:

                     Q2 2018      Q2 2017
Automotive sales  #3,117,865   $2,013,852

Bob Wilson

 

[Eyco]

I can reassure, they delivered just shy of 1 million cars in 2020