Car buyers shun electric vehicles not named Tesla. Are carmakers driving off a cliff?

[ericy]

There was a story in the LA times the other day that had some interesting quotes

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-01-17/ev-sales-fizzle

It costs manufacturers more to produce an electric car. Battery cost is the main reason. Internal combustion powertrains cost automakers an average $6,500 per car, according to AlixPartners; the average for an EV is $16,000. Battery pack prices are declining, the firm said — but at a rate of 4% a year. It will take a major development in battery technology to cause battery prices to plunge. In the meantime, EVs are money-losers for all major automakers, including Tesla.
​

This surprises me for a couple of reasons. In the same article:

The Hyundai Kona, for example, comes in a gasoline version and an all-electric version. The gas car’s base price is $20,100. The electric version starts at $36,900. And even those who want the EV are finding few to none in stock on dealer lots.​

So the consumer is paying 16K$ more for an EV (less after you subtract various tax rebates). But the drivetrain is only 10K$ more, so it seems like they ought to be making *more* money on these cars and not losing money.

We don't know *when* that consulting company did this analysis. Reports in the news are that new batteries are approaching the 100$/kWh - for a 64kWh battery, the battery costs alone should be approaching 6400$.

 

[Esprit1st]

I personally believe that it's all BS. Yes, an electric car is more expensive to build, currently. But just like you said it, it still doesn't make sense.
I believe it's just because they make less money on those cars that they don't want to produce then. Plus they make less money on servicing them, so why would they push them?
That's why they are reluctant to switch. Also part of it might be that there is currently a supply issue, because literally nobody other than Tesla is able to produce batteries fast enough.
Even Tesla has a with that. I believe Elon said something somewhere that they have to switch between high production for energy storage and car batteries.

 

[apu]

The Hyundai Kona, for example, comes in a gasoline version and an all-electric version. The gas car’s base price is $20,100. The electric version starts at $36,900. And even those who want the EV are finding few to none in stock on dealer lots.​

So the consumer is paying 16K$ more for an EV (less after you subtract various tax rebates).

In case it's not obvious I have to point out this is a unfair fiscal comparison of the least optioned bare bone gas Kona to even the lowest trimmed EV Kona. Here in Canada the lowest trimmed Kona EV is best compared to highest trimmed gas Kona( minus the awd)in available options and the real price difference before any incentives is more like $10-11k Canadian.

 

[interestedinEV]

Unfortunately there is no black and white answer. It is a combination of various things some which have been mentioned here. Let me try and summarize it in bullet points why car manufacturers are not investing in BEVs to the extent we think they should do.

1. They have an ICE franchise to protect as they have made so much investment already. It is difficult to turn direction in a large ship
2. It is not as profitable today as there is so much investment and costs for BEV. It affects their bottom line.
   
3. Wall Street treats the legacy manufacturers as industrial companies, it treats Tesla as a technology company. Technology companies like Amazon and others were allowed a long road to show profitability as long as they showed growth. This affects how the leadership reacts.
4. US/Canada customers want long range, other countries will live shorter range, so may be they should focus there. Leaf was in the market very early on, they never tried to extend the range until now.
5. Regulatory influence. US for a variety of reasons has made a U-turn. The current administration is battling California, which was leading the charge for greener vehicles, they have showed a skepticism over climate change and the oil lobby has deep connections with the officials. As a legacy manufacturer, uncertainty means keep status quo. It is just a business decision, why invest when the investment may not be needed.
6. Lack of charging infrastructure. Tesla built out a network as they needed to attract customers. VW built it out as they were forced by dieselgate. Others are making noises but in reality waiting for other people to build out the network.
   
7. Technology, especially battery technology is changing rapidly. Why not wait for a couple of years to see where the technology is rather than do it now?
8. InsideEvs is a biased forum, most people here are for EVs. Companies do market research all the time and may be their market research is telling them different. Let us not discount them.

One can pick up apart each point above and challenge it. But decisions in business are often multi-criteria and that is why most companies believe patience is the best policy for now. They may be wrong but it is what it is.

 

[101101]

The whole point of that bs LA Times shill article was to claim that Tesla is not making money on EVs. Tesla is making a profit on EVs. And it looks like it is the only one that will. The others look set to die trying. But since they are that far behind Tesla even with scale it will be very hard. Think about GM. Look at its Bolt sales. Doesn't pay back its loan. Does 25 billion is sock buy backs while laying off workers. Tries to sign on to rolling back emissions controls. Never went beyond compliance. Musk predicted the Bolt sales to the unit. Total lip service.
Got kicked out of the EU market, is a not invented here vitamin formulary that marketing exercises like the inflated Cruz purchase to try to say its a player. And when it went bankrupt it tried to blame its union.

InterestedinEV said : "5. Regulatory influence. US for a variety of reasons has made a U-turn. The current administration is battling California, which was leading the charge for greener vehicles, they have showed a skepticism over climate change and the oil lobby has deep connections with the officials. As a legacy manufacturer, uncertainty means keep status quo. It is just a business decision, why invest when the investment may not be needed."

No that is pure BS. Its not a business decision. It is not their decision, never really was. They don't get to poison for profit. As for the admin that is just pure corruption on behalf of criminal parasites, you can't site obvious un-adulterated corruption and someone trying to act like a monarch as something stable or policy. Said it many times before even if there were no climate change this would be ending. The motivation to end this is stronger than the motivation of the British to leave the EU and we can see what trying to waffle on that cost left (part of it, still don't rule out cheating) in the UK.

As for bias, there is no chance in hell that these firms marketing is telling the something different. But I think you should be very clear that their tail pipes and their profits poison us so its not their decision. Never was. Its our decision. And as a nation we can take everything thing from them, literally everything and be totally justified in doing so just on the basis of self defense against a true aggressor and one that has don't incalculable damage and has been recalcitrant and belligerent on opposing necessary change and has nothing to stand on other than the belief that the rich and stupid don't take order they give orders. This is why all over the world these people are getting out right bans on these products and its why there are German judges talking about jailing German politicians for inadequate compliance. This isn't a war on drugs lip service on pushers thing or even cover for pushing this is a pushers surrender or they don't physically survive. There is just less and less tolerance for people taking money to sell out and undermine he public. As someone that lives in CA I'd like to see the firms that tried mess with emissions barred from new car sales in the state for a decade.

Think about the Nissan head. There was seemed to be some sympathy on the forum based even based on what was known about the charges. As we know he went to a country where they pay the executives something in line with what they contribute- not more than 10x a line worker-and that is realistic and maybe even very generous. He got a lot more than that but apparently wanted to help himself to something more line line with the extreme rip of levels of a GM or something like that. They I think rightly viewed that as stealing or theft.
And hearing that he did this makes me wonder if he sabotaged their EV effort which he was credited with bringing about. I wonder if that is a greater part of their aggravation.

But lets focus the one thing from above that matters. Tesla is making money on EVs and the others with their half *** attitude are driving off a cliff.