Ad Hoc trip to casino

bwilson4web

bwilson4web

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Spontanious on Wednesday, I decided to drive to a Tunica casino, Horseshoe, to test a craps math model. Quick charges in Athens and Tupelo reached the Horseshoe casino that has free Tesla charging. A couple of hours at the craps table confirmed my math model.

Bet the table minimum on the PASS, COME, and their respective DONT which have a 1.41-1.40% house advantage. Then add 3x odds to the bet diluting the house advantage to less than 0.5%. There are more effects but this was just a brief test. Never forget it is called GAMBLING, not WINNING. Regardless, the casino was generous and my winnings paid for charging and road snacks.

Between our Tesla cars and Supercharging, a Tunica trip is affordable, reliable, and easy. Autopilot did all the driving while I just supervised.

Bob Wilson
 
I'm not fond of 'online' casinos based in part with my experience with casino games on my laptop. I have two craps games and the results suggest their random number code is different and not that good.

As an exercise to understand the craps rules, I wrote a craps simulator using the built-in RAND() code. I used time since epoc to initialize it. But testing it by running large numbers failed to generate the expected 1.41 and 1.40 house advantage. I soon found c code for a better random number generator and it significantly improve the expected house advantage.

So earlier this year I wrote another craps simulator using the built in RAND() routines. I thought surely after two decades the built-in RAND() code would be 'less bad.' It isn't.

Google scholar pointed me to a paper, "Portable Random Number Generators" Gerald P. Dwyer and K.B. Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, October 1999. I am still digesting this paper but I'm confident I'll find source code for a better random number generator.

A harder problem is money management. It turns out that significant gains tend to happen early in a craps session. I really need to leave the table with my winnings and come back later. I also need to 'bug out' when losing. This is a hard problem.

BTW, I use $30 for both odds and lay odds. This ensures payouts even on 6 or 8 are to integer dollar values. The ratios based on $30 then become:
  • $6 minimum gives 5x odds
  • $10 minimum gives 3x odds
  • I don't play $15 minimum tables as that would be 2x odds
This also allows me to calculate the amount of money I need to bring for a fair number of trials:
  • $6 + $30 = $36 per trial so $360 gives at least 10 trials
  • $10 + $30 = $40 per trial so $400 gives at least 10 trials
    • Or 11 trials at a $6 table.
Bob Wilson
 
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MichaelBaku said:
That sounds like quite the spontaneous and exciting trip to the Tunica casino! Testing a craps math model sounds like a unique adventure, and it's great to hear that your math model confirmed its effectiveness.
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Never forget, it is called 'gambling', not 'winning.' But you can minimize the House Advantage. <GRINS>

Bob Wilson
 
Finally got enough miles and hours to share insights on 2023.44.30.5.1:
  • Stop light and emergency stop seting - to reduce false "phantom braking" from earlier versions, I set it "late." But I noticed approaching stop lights and signs, the car did not slow down, almost seemed like it would run the light. Changing the setting to "early", the car moderately slowed. But false slow downs (i.e., less bad phantom brake events) returned from even a car creeping to the edge of my lane. The "middle" setting has not been tested.
  • Unpainted merge or exit lanes - less severe, the car more slowly tries to center in the suddenly "two lane wide" lane. Acceptable but some curious behavior when a car is there too. One time, it blocked car in a merging instead of doing a lane change to let them in.
  • Lane trimming for large vehicles - perfectly fine as it will nibble to the far side of lane from oversized vehicles.
  • Got one strike - the much improved navigation gives optional routes with an indicated time effect. However, study of the map too long without sunglasses on, the eye tracker gave me a strike. Lesson learned, always drive with sunglasses on when you can so the eye tracking is defeated.
Overall, less bad. Nagging seems reduced but then I might have changed my driving closer to what the system permits. Adding the A2Z, CCS-1 kit, paid for itself, ~$450, with a direct route instead of a long dogleg between Tunica and Huntsville. I also found a 'free for one hour', 50 kW ChargePoint, fast DC charger. I stayed longer (but not long enough) on the free charger just to minimize the cost at the next CCS-1 charger.

On this trip:
  • 8 hrs Huntsville to Vicksburg with two great SuperChargers, $22.
  • 5 hrs to Tunica with 95% free charge and two SuperChargers, $16. There is a CCS-1 option driving along the river route, fewer miles and slower speeds. A GM dealer has a CCS-1 charger, a little pricy and part of "Flo", Canadian-based, network, but ChargePoint record looks reliable.
  • 6 hrs to Huntsville with 95% free charge at Horseshoe and two CCS-1 chargers. First CCS-1 Chargepoint was 50 kW free for first hour but I should have waiting an extra 20 minutes to minimize expensive charge at second CCS-1, 65 kW station, $15. It was only expensive because dogs and I needed a biology break and food service was slow.
Of the two Vicksburg casinos:
  • Waterview - very nice, free room and three L2, J1772 chargers. But craps table ($10) opens at 5 PM, quickly filled by the local craps club (be there at the beginning,) and; closed at midnight.
  • River Walk - excellent promo chips. Craps table ($10) opens ~9 AM and closes ~1:30 AM. No chargers but nice multi-story parking garage.
Of the three Tunica casinos:
  • Fitzgeralds - no L2 chargers; 6-8 hours best craps game ($10 minimum); more utilitarian room (no local broadcast TV stations), and; a charge for fast WiFi access. Nice to visit when craps table is open but room is kinda Motel 6 quality.
  • Horseshoe - two L2 Tesla chargers with cones to prevent ICE; 24x7 craps game ($15 minimum); reasonable room, and free WiFi.
  • Goldspike - three L2 Tesla chargers on parking garage level 3 (low ICE risk); 24x7 craps ($15) but sometimes "crapless" table ($15 minimum) and; best promotions, $250 table play.
Bob Wilson
 
Wow, sounds like you had quite the adventure at the casino! Testing out a craps math model on a spontaneous trip to Tunica must have been exciting.
 
My current trip to the Electric Truck conference included some additional sessions at the Horseshoe Casino in Shelbyville. I confirmed some elements of the model as well as refinement of some subtle, somewhat obscure features. Lesson's learned in the school of hard knocks.

Bob Wilson
 
OebDowns said:
Have you ever considered exploring Bitcoin casino sites? They offer a unique and exciting way to engage in online gambling with cryptocurrency transactions. If you're interested,
Click to expand...
When they include ‘easy on the eyes’ hostesses serving free beverages and comps. For example, I got two free hotel nights at Gold Strike casino. That has made my eclipse viewing trip so practical.

Tunica is near Memphis on the Arkansas border. Checked in April 7, took a shower and nap. The weather report identified Northeast Arkansas as being cloud free during the eclipse.

At 1 AM, the Tesla drove me to Ash Flat AR where the dogs and I enjoyed sun rise at the Super Walmart: grocery store, McDonalds breakfast, and dog food. It is in the middle of the eclipse path.

So does an online casino compete?

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Spontanious on Wednesday, I decided to drive to a Tunica casino, Horseshoe, to test a craps math model. Quick charges in Athens and Tupelo reached the Horseshoe casino that has free Tesla charging. A couple of hours at the craps table confirmed my math model.

Bet the table minimum on the PASS, COME, and their respective DONT which have a 1.41-1.40% house advantage. Then add 3x odds to the bet diluting the house advantage to less than 0.5%. There are more effects but this was just a brief test. Never forget it is called GAMBLING, not WINNING. Regardless, the casino was generous and my winnings paid for charging and road snacks.

Between our Tesla cars and Supercharging, a Tunica trip is affordable, reliable, and easy. Autopilot did all the driving while I just supervised.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...
What a fun and calculated adventure!
 
bwilson4web said:
Spontanious on Wednesday, I decided to drive to a Tunica casino, Horseshoe, to test a craps math model. Quick charges in Athens and Tupelo reached the Horseshoe casino that has free Tesla charging. A couple of hours at the craps table confirmed my math model.

Bet the table minimum on the PASS, COME, and their respective DONT which have a 1.41-1.40% house advantage. Then add 3x odds to the bet diluting the house advantage to less than 0.5%. There are more effects but this was just a brief test. Never forget it is called GAMBLING, not WINNING. Regardless, the casino was generous and my winnings paid for charging and road snacks.

Between our Tesla cars and Supercharging, a Tunica trip is affordable, reliable, and easy. Autopilot did all the driving while I just supervised. And the gambling here made traveling seem even more enjoyable!

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...
I never cease to be amazed by Tesla. Tesla's charging network and autopilot seem to make your ride even smoother, turning what could have been a long drive into a smooth and efficient journey.
 
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