Zero Confidence in any ICE maker to do competitive EV

Discussion in 'General' started by 101101, Sep 1, 2018.

  1. 101101

    101101 Member

    A lot of confidence in Tesla as it has done a competent EV in the Model 3 Performance with Track mode and Version 9 Auto Pilot- suspect as that starts to beat all the German makes at the track and starts to revive the self driving that a lot of people will realize this. Tesla will hit 10k Model 3s a week in the first half of next year then start with the 35K Model 3s still making 7K or so off each. Musk gave a time frame for the 25K Teslas.

    Beside Tesla also have a lot of faith in the Chinese all electric makes coming up and faith in the Sono motors concept and others like it, but none in the ICE makers. Pure corruption keeps them from getting the point. VW scaling its EVs back through 2025 in the US to 3 million total. All it will have is compliance car sales level Taycan. These people are idiots! Same with BMW- will have nothing before late 2022 or 2023 and this is when it only sold about 2 million globally and Tesla will soon be in range to sell 600K or so most of it coming out BMW's hide. Here is the thing, BMW will experience cancelled sales even if Tesla can't keep up with filling them because its firm prone increasingly garbage products will be seen not a cool or desirable anymore but as obsolete junk.

    Have to wonder what enables them to be so stupid, I think Trump admin may have made some promises but they are going to bet their future on the Trump admin when its not clear Trump will be able to stay in office or even that revelations won't trigger an early election scuttling Pence and the GOP? Note Canada just barred the mountain pipeline- that's a clue. Advice to Germany would be that US shouldn't have bailed out GM or Chrysler (2nd time) although it did zero out GM's stupid stock holders (thank you Obama) so Germany shouldn't bail out these fool companies when they begin to go under- just use you're safety net to bail out the workers only- only the workers but let these companies die because they deserve it. I see Tesla rising and given how stupid and recalcitrant the competition has been I doubt Musk and crew cut them any slack.

    Part of the problem is it is corruption that links these firms to the petrol retail chain, that is all they have been is a means to sell petrol and probably also further corruption based on how much petrol has to be subsidized coming at the expense of legitimate uses and how that gone on 75 years longer than it should have entailing all sorts of secrecy and supreme backwardness hence these ICE makers can't go back on their insularity.
     
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I would agree for these reasons:
    1. Tesla has gone through ~5 design interactions: SmartCar, Roadster-1, Model S, Model X, Model 3. Tesla has orders of magnitude more experience with EV technology than the late arrivals.
    2. Petro designers seem to think EV technology is trivial which leads to over priced, under performing cars.
    3. Petro stylists want the cabin to look like their 20th century cabins for 'continuity' of design. Like the biplanes of the 1930s, a built-in performance problem.
    Bob Wilson
     
  3. 101101

    101101 Member

    I didn't know about the Smart Car but we should add the Toyota RAV 4 EV- so that is 6 design interactions and of course that's not counting that its is like 4 generations of S and some of X(?) nor including that Tesla is a ways along on the Roadster 2 and Semi.

    The Pebble Beach intro just came out and it only reinforced this opinion.

    Audi had this ridiculous electric super car that had a station wagon back end and tiny torque numbers and yet this bloated thing was supposed to go zero to 60 in under 2 seconds with only 600 or so ftlbs torque vs the Roadster 10,000nm.

    Then Konigsegg had a good tribute to Tesla but then started with this stuff about how they are just scratching the surface of
    their ICE hybrid and can with some simple tweaks add 600bhp with 5% fuel economy hit and be competitive. That stuff is just
    BS. Sure there is ICE that can do way under 0-60 in 2 seconds including dragsters and even off road econo box rally cars but this stuff has to be kept in perspective, dragster is a dragster and the rally cars are gutted carbon fiber go carts that are faster than motor cycles- still utterly hopeless when a thousand other material factors in favor of the electrics are factored in- they are gasoline powered cell phones.

    Mercedes just had a longish electric race car- its punting.

    Impressive though was the Ferrari car's body and claim of having first electric super car- see if it can beat the Roadster.
    Also the Porsche Taycan body- that's about all we see but again its compliance numbers possibly in both cases. Tesla will outsell Porsche globally this year if I am not mistaken. That won't go unnoticed.

    In the end outside of China (the Byton is fabulously impressive- LOVE that interior!!!) only Porsche and Ferrari are taking electrics seriously among ICE makers. One German firm and one Italian firm. You can also include Pinafarinna also very impressive but that is the soul of Ferrari. Also Sonos but they are pure EV and better to start with. But the fact that the two most aspired ICE brands are doing it is a tribute to Musk.
     
  4. gooki

    gooki Member

    What amazes me is the Japanese haven’t jumped into the BEV race (outside of Nissan). It looks like all their manufacturers relied on the same study to determine their future business decisions. EV for local commuter, and hydrogen fuel cell for long distance travel.

    The big problem Tesla brings to the incumbents isn’t just being first to market, or having locked in battery manufacturing, it’s their software capability is unmatched in the industry.

    I’m looking forward to watching the race to autonomous EVs.
     
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  5. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Tesla has what is called in strategy "the first mover advantage" and they have a visionary CEO who is willing to take risks and push the envelope in not just the product but across the value chain. For example, not having dealers but instead using company owned showrooms is a great move: there is really no reason that companies should not own retail centers. McDonald's for example has both company owned stores and franchises. Powerful interests have prevented this in the new automobile sales arena.

    That said, it is not always that the fist mover that wins. Well healed competitors have a lot going for them that they can leverage their strengths to leapfrog over competition Take Microsoft for example. For a long time, they would wait for another company to come up with a good product (think of CP/M, Lotus, Netscape etc.) but then would move in with the full force of Microsoft and push them out. It boils down to if Automotive manufacturers they see they same opportunities that Elon Musk sees.

    Tesla has lot going for it. However, it would be foolish to underestimate competition. Toyota and others see BEV as a niche market to be supplanted soon by fuel cells. And that is why they are not willing to invest. If that turns out to be true , Tesla will be the big fish in a small pond. If the market takes off and let us say, 25% of the passenger vehicle market is EV's, then others will try and muscle in. Will they win against an entrenched Tesla?
    Time will tell.
     
  6. 101101

    101101 Member

    Issue is ICE makers fail. Fuel Cells are impossible. You'd have world war III before petrol was able to foist its long tail pipe scam. You'd have to get the hydrogen from some green source, the performance is way too low and the cost way too high- and hitting the liquid fuel infrastructure is part of taking out fossil fuels and doing maximum harm to their financials. Its impossible to think that Toyota and the rest of the Japanese makes don't know this. They know it, suspect they are just giving half Japanese Tesla room, they now China will overrun with electrics.

    Model 3 is interesting, while the delay have moved the price up market production capacity is coming up and only non credible UBS thinks it can't be profitably made at 35K- some former skeptics think it can have regular margins at that price.

    What I like is the M3P wil beat C7 and BMW 3/5 at track and is still better than a Camry in every way and can address both market points.
    I like that track mode and greater than Auto Pilot one capability should reside on this car within a month or so. Meanwhile Audi seems set to claim that its electric SUV is about to go into production- but its hand made compliance levels of production globally and even then when is the actual launch a year from now? MB is about to show off it SUV EV but it too will have trivial production hand made number and when will it be coming? Design if anything like the prototype looks promising though. To me Tesla sprints to the finish line based on its new chip and Semi.

    But MP3 should hitting a mind share tipping point. BMW was considered a strong ICE firm, but it is about to get KO'd much worse than it did with the S series- although that is still ongoing- the bulk of its business is in very serious trouble- worse than the 07 crisis- from which it should have learned. A lot of that is because its been producing over priced sht for a while but most of it is because its products are straight up obsolete now. Diesel gate supposedly cost VW 32 billion now and counting- shorts have last the better part of that number on Tesla (so fake estimates of total losses out there but if you've been paying attention you know it could be well over 20 billion by now - can't use the S3 numbers anymore they appear unreliable despite a pro Tesla guy there- but what is about to happen to the German makes looks worse than the 07 crisis and Diesel gate combined. All the do is talk and they walk back the talk all the time.
     
  7. Paul K

    Paul K Member

    First of all: Nissan is the only ICE car maker to step up to the plate and commit to manufacturing BEVs in large numbers. True, they may have some battery short comings but they are affordable to those who cannot afford a Tesla. Thanks to the vision of Carlos Ghosn they are well ahead in the development and manufacturing of BEVs. Secondly: Canada has not killed the Trans West pipeline. It was stopped by a court injunction that the proper processes had not been followed. This is a major speedbump but it might still get the go ahead at some point. No provincial gov't in Alberta can get elected without kowtowing to the oil companies. The current federal gov't likely cannot get elected without support from Alberta. What a frigging mess!
     
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  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Hmmm, I had forgotten that Tesla had made a prototype EV powertrain for the Smart Fortwo. According to this InsideEVs article, it didn't progress to the production stage.

    But you left out the Toyota RAV4 EV and the Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive. If you're including prototypes, then you should include the Roadster Mk II and the Semi Truck.

    However, your main point -- that Tesla has loads more experience with designing compelling BEVs and BEV powertrains than other EV makers -- is well taken. Legacy auto makers have a steep uphill climb if they actually try to catch up with Tesla's EV tech!

     
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Don't forget that the Japanese are heavily influenced by what the government wants, far more so than in the U.S. and European companies. In Japan, "being part of the team" extends to following government policy.

    Unfortunately, since Japan shut down nearly all its nuclear power plants following the Fukushima incident, there is a chronic shortage of electricity there. That means PEVs (Plug-in EVs) are seen as counterproductive, in causing increasing demand for the limited supply of electricity. Therefore, there isn't much domestic demand in Japan for PEVs.

    The way the government of Japan is promoting the "hydrogen economy" hoax is, at least to me, just an indication of their desperation. Japan has always had a chronic problem with energy shortage. Their military expansionism in WW II was driven largely by a lack of domestic supplies for oil, and the need for oil to build an industrial economy.

    It's too bad that Japan's populace has been so indoctrinated by mass media to fear nuclear power, because I think the new, Generation IV designs for truly fail-safe nuclear power plants -- such as NuScale's small modular reactor (SMR) design -- would be the perfect interim solution, lasting until such time as it becomes practical to rely mostly on renewable energy supplies for electricity.

    Now more nukes! :)

     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    The only reason I cited the SmartCar was it led to an early, significant cash infusion. 'Popping wheelies' meant Elon's team realized what it meant for performance. Omission of the RAV4 EV and Mercedes B-Class was just me not following Tesla's history closely.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    To be fair, the fact that Tesla contributed to the build of the Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive is fairly obscure. I followed the "story" of Tesla for years before I stumbled across a reference to that, and you hardly ever see it mentioned. The RAV4 EV, and the fact that Tesla built its EV powertrain, is much better known.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    There in lies the problem Toyota has with EVs . . . not invented here.

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. 101101

    101101 Member

    Just to follow on with what we saw today from the Germans- it all looks a bit like vaporware. Climate perp Volkswagon says its going into production but its going the vehicle but with compliance numbers and with a ramp that will be flat- that is no ramp and outrageously with a vehicle that is less capable than a X by a wide margin but 10K more. Mercedes for its part is offering something with inadequate range but touting its other sub par offerings. Its not a bad looking vehicle but its not serious.
     
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  14. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    A long term BMW owner here. I owned 5 Bimmers in the last 13 years from X5 to all the way down to 325i. My Model 3 replaced my latest BMW 330i and I’ll never look back. Model 3 performs on par or even better than 3 series. I didn’t miss my Bimmer at all. If a bimmer ***** like me finally realize Tesla M3 is making BMW 3ers, Mercedes C-Class and Audi A4 forgettable, the life of these cars will be days away. They’ll soon be irrelevant.


    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
     
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  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Source: https://insideevs.com/german-automakers-take-notes-from-tesla/

    McGee notes that “When Tesla started production of the Model S saloon in 2012, the start-up had fewer than 3,000 employees. Chief executive Elon Musk had the luxury of beginning with a blank page, to hire just the specialists he needed… [in order] to launch the first successful electric-only car brand.” One former Tesla executive said the company ethos, at the time, was: “There’s only one way, and it’s forward.”

    In contrast, if legacy carmakers aggressively push forward with electric vehicles, they’ll need to give up the cash cows of the past — diesel and gas-guzzling cars powered by the internal combustion engine. For Germany’s automakers, according to the Ifo Institute, “up to 600,000 of their jobs would be at risk if the internal combustion engine died. However, all incumbent carmakers acknowledge that electric cars are the future.” That said, Germany’s legacy automakers are struggling to address this conundrum.

    To make matters worse, the shift to electric, “will re-sort the carmakers in profitability,” says Christian Senger, head of the e-mobility line at the VW passenger car brand. “Those who [take] the hardest road will be more successful than the others.” But they’re nervous about “over-spending on a technology that may or may not upend existing facilities devoted to cars powered by internal combustion engines.”

    Bob Wilson
     
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  16. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    bwilson4web quoted: "Germany’s legacy automakers are struggling to address this conundrum.

    I find it interesting how we see so many references to what one author called The Innovator's Dilemma without any reference to his book. Of course, that's not exactly a household term, but it's interesting to see how many people are apparently coming to the same conclusion independently.

    Not that this is anything new; every disruptive tech revolution puts market leaders in the same Innovator's Dilemma.

     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I saw it in real life several times and didn't know about the book. I just ordered a copy from Barnes & Nobel when Amazon tried to charge too much. <grins>

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. Paul K

    Paul K Member

    What is Nissan in all this? A little more than chopped liver I think. They are they only ICE car maker who committed to building BEVs in large numbers. In order to grab the incentives before they disappeared I ordered and managed to get a 2018 Leaf S and traded in my much loved 2016 SL. Somehow it seems even quieter and smoother than the old one with noticeably more zip. Aside from stumbling out of the gate by the Smyrna plant in Tenessee, all 3 plants are cranking them out.
     
  19. gooki

    gooki Member

    What's surprising about Nissan is they've followed the "Japanese" EVs are only for local (short range) travel model. Nissan has a large product line, they have the Infinity "luxury" brand, and yet didn't push their EV tech beyond market perceived low value vehicles (a hatch back and a small van).

    I'm very surprised Nissan don't have an all electric GTR or Skyline/Q70 on the market already.
     
  20. 101101

    101101 Member

    Yep if they were serious they would have started at the high end to demonstrate the absolute superiority of electric.
     

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