When will the first $35k Model 3 be available for ordering/produced/delivered?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Cypress, Nov 21, 2017.

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When will Model 3 base version ($35k, no options ) be available?

  1. Q4 2017

    0 vote(s)
  2. Q1 2018

    0 vote(s)
  3. Q2 2018

  4. Q3 2018

    0 vote(s)
  5. Q4 2018

  6. Never

  1. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

    The standard range version was supposed to start coming out in October or something, but I guess that is pushed to early 2018. But they never made it clear if they will still only be making that with the premium interior. My guess is due to keeping production simple, we won’t see the base interior until after the AWD and Performance versions come out middle or late 2018.
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  3. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    I'd guess the base model will start becoming available after they've ramped up production to 5000 a week in March. So most likely sometime in May or June.
  4. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Well, I think Tesla will begin offering lower-trim versions of the Model 3 before they hit that 5000 per week milestone. So my guess -- and it is just a guess -- is that we'll see that offered starting sometime during 1st quarter 2018.
  5. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

    The configuration page for new orders seems to be indicating Q1 2018 (early 2018) for the base model and premium interior optional. Although some research shows that the majority of reservation holders are likely to order with options like premium, larger battery, and enhanced autopilot. So not sure when will see actual delivery of the first “bare bones” model 3.
  6. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

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  8. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

    Salesperson at the local Tesla store said early 2019 for the base model.
    WadeTyhon and Triangles like this.
  9. LAF

    LAF Active Member

  10. Triangles

    Triangles New Member

    Seeing as how they already can't satisfy demand at a $50K+ price, I doubt they will have any worry about production capability exceeding demand when they finally get to the $35K version. I wholeheartedly agree it sucks the credit will be into phase out by that time. It would be nice to see the credit sunset for all manufactures after a certain date instead of a certain number of cars produced, say 2020 or so that way the early drivers of the technology aren't punished for paving the way.
  11. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

    There will still be some rebate by then just not the full $7500. If they reach 200,000 in 2018 Q3, then the full rebate goes through end of 2018 Q4. It is then cut in half to $3750 form2 quarters (end of Q2 2019) then cut in half again to $1875 for 2 quarters (end of 2019). So there should be some rebate left until the end of 2019.
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  13. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

    Order page is now saying 3-6 months for standard battery. So Q1 2019. I would now guess base version without premium interior for Q2 2019.
  14. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Hmmm, I posted that comment only about 11 months ago. How fast things change! ;)

    And now, I'm hoping Tesla will start making the Standard Range version in the 1st quarter 2019. No doubt in only small quantities at first, and only gradually increasing in volume.

  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    My understanding from the Q2 report is the number of reservations is increasing faster than their ability to produce. Their backlog is increasing.

    Bob Wilson
  16. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    Tesla should push $35k version further. They can mandatorily preconfigure the $5k-premium package into the $35k version to sell it ($40k of course) in 2018.
  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    That will very probably happen in 2019, but not this year, and perhaps not until Q2 or possibly even Q3 2019.

  18. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

    I’m starting to wonder if the first $35k Tesla Model 3 will roll out of the gigafactory they are building in China.
  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Looking back at my own posts to this thread, I'm shocked at just how far I've pushed back my estimates... or rather, just how far Tesla has pushed back their estimate of when they'll start making the $35k Model 3.

    As it is... unfortunately, you could be right. If Tesla continues to delay putting the SR TM3 into production so long as they have sufficient demand for higher trim levels of the car, enough demand to sell all they can without putting that lowest trim level into production, then it could be a long time coming. Tesla still isn't offering leases on the Model 3 -- just like they did not for the first few years of production for the Model S -- and overseas sales haven't even started yet. So there is a lot of market left to be exploited before they need to put the lowest trim level into production.

    Strictly from the viewpoint of Tesla's business, why should they start making the lowest priced version, when they can sell higher priced cars?

    But Tesla certainly isn't winning any popularity contests by repeatedly pushing back the production of the often-promised $35k Model 3!
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2018
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    You understand the business case but let me share another view.

    Tesla has a finite number of assembly lines that operate at a maximum, fixed rate. The end of each quarter they hold enough material back to do a surge week to measure the capacity without material shortages. The start of the next quarter, Tesla spends time fixing the problems found during the surge and accelerating delivery of the parts that limit production.

    It probably costs in the neighborhood of ~$1 B to setup another assembly line. But the China Gigafactory 3 will be the next 'from the ground up' assembly line(s). China sponsored, it will be a great way to figure out how to expand production in 2019-2020.

    One thing, I'm not terribly concerned about is the $35 k Tesla. The demand is so high relative to Tesla's ability to manufacture, I really don't see that model becoming real until a more efficient, assembly line is established. There is one wild card, Ford.

    Instead of playing around with VW, Ford may have excess capacity. They might be able to do a deal with Tesla and open one or more custom lines.

    Bob Wilson
  21. edward

    edward New Member

    $35000 TM3 will be in a tough spot against the 64kwh Leaf and Kona EV. Personally, I prefer the conventional dashboard layout.
    200 mile EV range will be the norm in 2019. IMO, $35K TM3 missed the boat.
  22. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Hi edward,
    You'll notice we have two, plug-in hybrids bought in 2016 because they met our requirements and were affordable:
    • dynamic cruise control and automatic emergency braking (aka., TSS-P)
    • 25-72 mile EV range
    • 40-56 MPG gas
    • <$30k
    I shopped in 2016 finding:
    • Prius ECO did not have TSS-P equivalent
    • Hyundai IONIQ Blue did not have TSS-P equivalent
    • Chevy Volt required top trim and extra cost for TSS-P equivalent
    • Leaf did not have MPG option
    • Kona EV was not for sale
    Bob Wilson
  23. LAF

    LAF Active Member


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