This isn't an easy questions but it is an important question. To me the benchmark figure is to look at VW Groups yearly revenue which about 280 billion a year. Now if Tesla spends money on a new factory that will confirm will build nothing but EVs that is about as straight forward as it gets. But if VW or GM spends to retool its harder to track that. It might be helpful to track total automotive battery investment. How much CAPEX is in the pipeline? My intuitive feeling is the globe should be spending at least 50 billion a year on this if its to go where we expect it to go. That could produce 70 Giga factories by 2025 If its to go where Tony Seba thinks it will go VW alone should be spending this. Munster said Tesla could take 17% of the US share in short period to be come the number 1 make in the US. But if these firms spend the tiny amount they claim to be spending it seems feasible that Tesla could take 17% of share globally. Might be able to do that without breaking a sweat if the 18x reduction in the number of cars hits that Tony Seba predicts from electric autonomy by 2025- in which case the 70 Gigafactories number overshoots by a bit but that total supply chain and given duplication it might only yield 35 Giga factories worth. Regardless, the reduction would hit new cars first. Imagine that instead of 100 million cars a year only 5.55 million were needed in 2025. That would put the ICE makers under but its still an environment start up pure BEV could rise up in. Remember also he is predicting people will spend 10x less on transportation. That will definitely collapse petrol and the ICE makers, and since petrol has been allowed to hold banking hostage with insuring its guaranteed loser business model (an incredible crime) it could collapse the global economy. But this time the petrol industry would be fingered- no way to have bail-ins with out the real culprits coming to light. But to put all this in perspective a little over 1 years worth of VWs revenue might be enough to completely replace ICE with BEV by 2025. Could yield huge savings for consumers (necessary wealth transfer) and slam petrol. Figure 1.2 trillion for petrol fuel energy, 1.6 trillion for direct state subsidies and about 6.5 trillion for indirect subsidy externalities and about 3 trillion on ICE makers. Its almost 13 trillion that could get cut in half, but about half of that externality.