https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/06/tony-seba-charts-out-the-disruptive-path-forward-to-evs-and-out-of-the-i-c-e-age/ Someone who is checking Tony's predictions. https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/18/back-testing-tony-seba-1/ https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/19/back-testing-tony-seba-2-setting-out-the-s-curves/ https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/20/back-testing-tony-seba-3-fleshing-out-the-s-curve/ https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/21/testing-tony-seba-4-foma-with-the-big-6/ https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/23/testing-tony-sebas-ev-predictions-5-the-view-from-china/ https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/23/tony-sebas-ev-predictions-6-china-plays-leapfrog/ https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/25/testing-tony-sebas-ev-predictions-8-the-invisible-chinese-auto-maker-disruptors/ https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/28/testing-tony-sebas-ev-predictions-9-and-then-there-was-tesla/ In his 3rd presentation he understate's Tony's position stating that by 2030 EVs will be 95% penetration- but I think Tony's actual position is there will be no new ICE after 2025 period so that likely means full BEV dominance by that point where Tony says for 2030 95% of miles will be driven by Autonomous BEVs in in transport as a service or AEV TAAS, but there will still be 40% private cars some left over still running ICE machines. But for clarity Tony also predicts all vehicles EV by that time and essentiallyt eh complete elimination of the ICE infrastructure- we're talking about 30% reduction in absolute terms in petrol fuel/energy even against their increasing demand claims. Also for Tony if I am not mistaken they petrol fuel energy and all the rest are wiped out completely by 2030 so the other 2/3 goes leaving solar-wind-batteries covering it all, if there is any difference these other's become impossible after that point and that also goes for nuclear- presumably even in the worst climates it is still cheaper use the standard green- worst case might be using some cables. This gentleman also gets Tony's scenario for 80% reduction in cars on the road due to AV TAAS by 2030 wrong, but otherwise apparently really good analysis including the take home that China has already apparently made Seba's projections (my read of what he is saying) inevitable.
