Ok, We have lot of different opinions so stand-up for your point of view. For example, my vote 12,500-14,999. The sales pattern is consistent with leaving the bottom of the "S" curve. This suggests more than a doubling of Model 3 production over the May numbers. Bob Wilson ps. Now if Insideevs could run a little betting action on the side. <GRINS>
Then I’m going with 0-4,999. I believe Tesla will sandbag June sales to push the federal tax rebate phaseout to July.
I thought it was interesting that the question (Will or won't Tesla pass the 200,000 milestone of U.S. sales during June?) didn't even come up at the recent Tesla Stockholders' meeting. I don't think Tesla is even remotely as obsessed with extending the Federal tax credit another quarter as are a lot of Usual Suspects on this forum, as well as the Usual Suspects regularly posting comments to IEVs news articles. There are multiple things Tesla could have done to push passing the 200,000 milestone off until July, which would give them another quarter of full Federal $7500 tax credit... assuming the GOP doesn't axe that, as they certainly might. But Tesla hasn't done any of those things, other than diverting reportedly 2000-3000 TM3s to Ottowa, to satisfy demand for buyers taking advantage of Ottowa's soon-to-expire Provincial tax credit. Even 3000 diverted to non-U.S. sales wouldn't be enough to delay Tesla passing the 200,000 milestone until July. It's interesting that the matter is still debatable, in that Tesla could on June 1 suddenly have changed course and delayed things to July. But given that there has been no report that Tesla has done any of the things they could have, other than increasing Canadian deliveries somewhat (but not enough by itself to matter), the most reasonable scenario seems to be that Tesla will allow the 200,000 milestone to pass this month, during June, without making any real effort to delay things. Tesla only has less than two weeks left to do that. They can't wait until the last week in June, by which time most of the cars scheduled for delivery this month will already have been loaded onto trucks and/or trains, en route to their destination. In other words: By now (June 11) it's probably already too late to delay things even if Tesla wanted to, and they haven't given the slightest sign that they actually intend such a delay. * * * * * Following Tesla's usual pattern, this being the last month in a quarter, they'll pull out the stops to maximize deliveries, so I'll guess between 8000 and 8400 TM3s will be delivered. (But no surprise if IEVs estimate is outside that range. That's just a guess, not a prediction.) If the 6250 estimate for May was the only thing we had to go on, then my estimate would be higher. However, we know that much of April's production was delayed in delivery until May, so that May number is artificially inflated by perhaps 1000 or even more.
