I have been away from the markets for a few weeks, so not on top of what's going on right now. But I see TSLA taking another drop. Markets rebounding today, but not TSLA. What is causing this?
We have at least one recently disaffected Tesla stockholder on this forum. I try to avoid mentioning politics on InsideEVs' wonderful forums, but Elon is hinting he'll fund Donald Trump's legal and campaign expenses and that may not sit well with everyone who owns or is thinking of buying Tesla stock.
Actually, I saw on the news today that while he attended a Trump fundraiser event, along with other CEOs of major companies and institutions, Musk said he would not support or contribute to either Biden's or Trump's campaigns for this election cycle. He said he will remain neutral. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/elon-musk-election-biden-trump-donations-a94de0f0 There is something else causing TSLS to falter. Maybe just that the competition is lowering their prices further and will put more pressure on Tesla margins if they are forced to follow to keep up their sales. Also, I wonder how well Tesla is doing in China. While in New Zealand, I noticed they were selling BYD cars there, and they looked pretty nice. Not being sold here, yet, but I think they are very big in China.
Well Tesla Brandenburg is shut down due to terrorism. The Suez canal route is under attack. China sales are down in part due to the Chinese new year. BYD lower their prices. The model 3 US tax credit is gone for now. The Cybertruck isn't going to help sales much. FSB is getting better, but it's still not full self-driving. I don't see any good news for 2024 until the end of the year. At that point, I expect the Model 3 to regain at least part of the federal tax credit. The wild card is FSD.
I'm not so much 'disaffected' as much as I may be seeing a 2010-age, TSLA. I have no plans to sell my TSLA but rather to balance my stocks with 2/3 and 1/3 split between TSLA and REE. That is why I'm in the Indianapolis area. Bob Wilson
Yippee: The following order executed on 03/06/2024 at 9:59 AM, Eastern time: Account: 3859 Transaction type: Buy Order type: Limit Security: TESLA INC (TSLA) . . . Price:* $176.00 Gotta check the couch for spare change. Bob Wilson
In just over two weeks, we'll get the early production and sales numbers. We are also getting the early Cybertruck reviews including Sandy Munro. Add to that, the refreshed Model 3. Meanwhile, the crumbling of the 'honorable competition' moves from prediction to fact. For TeslaQ, the good news crushing their fantasies grows. Bob Wilson
I won't be surprised to see the stock go down to $155 after the numbers are released. If they can get the 4680 cell production up significantly, then they should be able to qualify the model 3 long range for the $7,500 tax credit. That will give the stock a bit of a bump. As far as the Cybertruck, it's not going to help the stock, and Rivan is breathing a sigh of relief. Frankly, Sandy has become such a Elon butt kisser, I'm finding him hard to watch. The wildcard is FSD. If they can get to work, the stock will go to new records. Unfortunately, the crash has them pausing. So probably no help here this year. The $25,000 Tesla is still at least a year and half away, so no help there either. If the war in the middle east ends, then perhaps there will be a bump in the stock, if the Suez route stops being under attack. I guess we will see how the stock does this year.
I sometimes don't agree with you (too much of a Tesla fanboi, even though not an owner). But I mostly agree with this post. I would not be surprised to see TSLA near $100 by the end of 2024. Tesla will have a lot of challenges this year, as will the EV market in general. You keep putting a lot of value and hope on FSD being the saviour of Tesla. That's where I really disagree. Musk has been touting this for many years, but doesn't seem any closer (or in demand) these days, maybe even less given the issues. Cybertruck is a failure, and haven't heard much about the Semi. What is happening with that. I still think the cross country infrastructure to support charging those will be an even bigger challenge than getting the truck ready. Tesla needs to get their $25K car ready sooner, and it had better be good. The competition is coming. BYD will own that space, not to say the larger cars incl SUVs will as well. I have seen a few of them, and was very impressed. We have a BYD bus (a large one) operating from one of our ski resorts here, and wow, nicest bus I have ever seen. I know the US will resist allowing BYD in, the rest of the world will not.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. If they can get to work, it's a game changer. If it gets that low, and don't think it will, it's a buy. As I've said before, I have mixed feelings about Elon. As far as their model Y and 3s, they are pretty good cars. Heck, even Consumer Reports is recommending them. Tesla sells a bunch of them. They will sell every Cybertruck they can make this year. They are a rich man's toy. So how many they can sell in 2025 and later, no one knows. However, the truck not likely to help the stock move upward. I see it as more of a model X in the pickup form. The semi news has been a bit quiet. Maybe the up coming quarterly will shed some light on it. I believe there is plenty of market for it doing local deliveries. Meeting that demand will probably keep them busy for a few years. However, I don't see it moving the stock much this year. I don't see them as being a player here in the USA. Both parties are currently showing no love for the Chinese, even if they try to build in Mexico. Even the Europeans are thinking protection. Overall, I don't see Tesla stock going down to $100. More likely to bounce between $155 and $175.
Oh my Gott: Consumer Reports (CR) endorsement is the kiss of death. Actually, I review their annual car summaries and they look like 'back handed' complements. Two decades ago, CR began to hate on the Prius that I drove. Absolutely false claims, I dropped our subscription in 2012. I would buy the annual survey issues and eventually noticed they softened their anti-Prius bias with more critical Tesla bias. I just can't deal with their subjective opinions. CR remains oblivious to their readership polls even when they are 180 degrees from the 'professional' reviews. So I vote with my wallet as should each of us. Bob Wilson
Spak predicts Tesla will report only 432,000 deliveries for the quarter, 7% below his prior forecast and 10% below consensus estimates. On the plus side, 432,000 would still represent a tiny bit of growth year over year (up 2%). Swiss UBS analyst recently predicts substantially reduced Tesla deliveries. If we note the Giga Berlin lost production from the sabotage, -8,000 Model Y, we come up with -8,000 / 432,000 ~= -1.8%. Far less than UBS claimed loss of 7-10%. I suspect we're going to see substantial Tesla production growth, especially Q2, because of the factory attack. Musk, management, and employees will use the attack to motivate for higher production. Individually, small efforts but cumulative, huge. My expectation is 2 million vehicles in 2024 and possibly by Q3. At the same time, ICE cars have entered the 'valley of death.' This comes from two effects: EV Wright's Law Positive- supplies for EVs will see significant price reductions due to higher production efficiencies and competition. For example, the crash of lithium carbonate: ICE Wright's Law Negative - foolishly the ICE manufactures have tried to adopt EV prices but their suppliers are failing due to lower orders. Higher production costs from suppliers and labor will erode ICE profits. Worse, legacy car dealers are reported to be reluctant EV sellers. BTW, here is an e-mail received from Tesla this morning: Keep Your FSD and Get a New Color As a Tesla owner you are eligible to transfer your Full-Self Driving Capability to a new Tesla. Purchase a new vehicle from our existing inventory and we will cover the cost of either a paint or interior color upgrade.* Take delivery by March 31, 2024 to be eligible. You are also eligible to receive up to 10,000 miles Free Supercharging when you place your order by March 19, 2024 and trade in your current vehicle.** Terms and conditions apply and are subject to change. Replacing FSD cost $12,000 (I bought it early for $6,000), saving $6,000. My blue paint cost in 2019 was $1,600. The 10,000 miles Supercharging is ~$875. Bob Wilson
I think this is the biggest reason for TSLA's price fall, and more to come. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/22/byd-seagull-ev-puts-global-auto-execs-politicians-on-edge.html Tesla announced today they are cutting back production in China, where BYD rules. And they are coming to the rest of the world. I saw them in New Zealand (inc full sized models) last month and a pretty good looking car, too. Will kill the EV competition, I'm sure. Reminds me back in early 70s when the small Japanese cars (Hondas, Datsuns, etc) made it to North America. The domestics could not compete at the bottom end. Elon Musk will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to get a $10K car on the market. Sounds counter intuitive or ironic, but it may be that only Trump's win of the Presidency could save the US EV industry. He will keep the Chinese out.
The Dolphin is 358,000 to 398,000 pesos in Mexico. Add 25% for the Trump tax, and it sells for over $25,000 in the states. Well China is not on the either party's good list right now. Trump lives for adoration and money. So it's possible he could change his mind with the right incentives. Anyhow, China should be a little gun shy about building any auto plants here. Didn't the USA confiscate Chinese property here before?
My understanding is they are changing production shifts: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2024/03/22/elon-musks-automaker-is-up-against-increasingly-stiff-competition-in-china-not-only-from-homegrown-c/73066187007/ . . . earlier this month instructed employees at its Shanghai facility to lower production of both the Model Y and Model 3 — the two vehicles Tesla makes in China — by working five days a week instead of the usual 6 1/2 days, . . . asking not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. . . . The production lines run on two 11.5-hour shifts per day, which remains unchanged. . . . Assuming the lines continue at the current rate, (5 - 6.5) / 6.5 ~= -23% reduction while retaining trained staff and factory capacity. It hurts the individual factory employee but also supports adding incremental improvements to the production lines. The employees may enjoy the time off to play with their Teslas, family time, or catch up on sleep. One unknown, does it reduce any 'overtime' pay if there is overtime in China? Bob Wilson
Well, maybe it's time for the US to compete again. With all the AI and robotic technology, you'd think some leaps in technology and productivity could be had to benefit the common person not just the Wall Street wolves. Elon Musk came a long ways with his manufacturing and supply chain productivity. But it is not enough. How can the Chinese, IE BYD, produce and sell a $10K EV, and still make a profit? The answer to that question needs to be understood. Domestics can't build a $70K EV at a profit!! Maybe they should consider that not everyone wants or can afford a high powered, long range EV. In the old days, a small Honda or Datsun did just fine for commuting or around town errands. Money was saved to buy a first home, not used to impress your friends. With the Seagull/Dolphin sure seems like deja vu to me. Maybe this time the govts need to stop supporting/rescuing the big domestics, and let them go under and shed all that accumulated baggage. Then we might finally get the cars we really want. This might sound extreme. But might be worth some thought...
In spite of what 'pundits say,' I don't know that there is a single cause. But the effect means Tesla Shanghai will have more hours each week to 'tune production' and give the workers time off to enjoy life (and catch up on sleep.) In 1975-76, I was working 50-70 hours a week. The company appreciated my efforts and gave me 'a trip to Florida.' I walked around, found an inexpensive motel room, and slept. Feeling 'something isn't right', I few home early with a painful sun burn. I walked into work Sunday afternoon to find my suspicions were correct. Bob Wilson
