I think the Chinese designed Tesla is coming. I think they will build it in China and Mexico. I think GM is losing money on every Bolt that sell. However, they would rather do that then pay Tesla for CARB credits.
The market always seems to find a way of dealing with that: Prices Of Used Teslas Drop Way Faster Than Those Of Other Brands (insideevs.com)
Supercharging alone is around 40% of Tesla's revenues so that's the real cash cow (margins buried by subsidiaries' direct costs). There is also the $2.8bn+ of full self driving deferred revenue to be recognized, but sadly the cash is already burned up.
Anyone else see the logical inconsistency? By January 4, we should have the Tesla production and sales numbers. Tesla has been growing by 50% per year By February 15, we should have the 2022 Q4 financial results Tesla's competition is having a hard time with growth and profits In 2022, I sold some shares at $300 and others at $230. Sleeping driver at 68 mph for at least 15 minutes does not die How terrible is that? Bob Wilson
Well Tesla drop the price of the Model Y to qualify for the tax credit? Could we see a $55,000 Model Y long range and a $45.000 standard range Model Y? If so, that's got to hurt the stock price. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-for-new-qualified-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after
Tesla could make a removable, rear seat, 7-seater Model Y standard or possibly optional for all Model Y. As for the $55k threshold, Tesla is in a good position to do that and decimate the traditional EV makers who are not as manufacturing flexible. Bob Wilson
Well Tesla is not going bankrupt. However, the stock is still overpriced. However, it's possible the short sellers are going to take some profits and give the stock a floor. The treasury department gave all the manufactures a Christmas present by calling leasing a business that is covered under the business section of the IRA, and delaying the individual section of the IRA for North American manufactures. So that should give the stock a bit of a bump. So being said, Tesla is still going to have to lower the prices of their vehicles sometime after March. That's going to hurt the stock price. Tesla's stock is a bit like gambling since so much of it's value is based on Elon's salesmanship.
It's a good thing the treasury department give Tesla a Christmas present. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-deliveries-in-china-slump-in-december-11672913709?mod=article_inline
They are going to have to lower the prices here too and bring in a standard range Model Y if they want to meet their sales goals. That's going to hurt the stock price.
Judging from locally empty tables at restaurants and somewhat reduced traffic, we may be seeing the beginnings of a recession. Loss of buying from lack of financing and slower business can also explain reduced sales. The post holidays slump seems more than I remember from the past. Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041715/how-important-are-seasonal-trends-automotive-sector.asp The automotive industry has some definite seasonal trends, with peak demand occurring in the spring and fall, and lowest sales in January, February, and into the beginning of March. In the United States, car dealers often experience difficulty selling inventory during the winter months, when consumers are less motivated to brave the cold to make a car purchase. This sometimes changes during spring when the combination of nicer weather and tax refunds are thought to spur consumer spending. Traditionally, another car seasonal trend occurs during the fall months when the new car models for the coming year come out. However, this is not always the case, as some companies have begun releasing new models throughout the year. This is an attempt by car manufacturers to boost auto sales during normally slow months. The IRA boost has yet to materialize as the IRS works toward March on their implementation instructions. Bob Wilson
I don't expect to see much of a boost from now until March since none of the manufactures have any excess capacity for the cars currently listed. Tesla is probably in the best position to boost sales if they quickly come out with a standard range Model Y. VW is probably in the next best position.
Tesla now has lots of inventory unlike most of its competitors. They've done better in the past due to their vertical integration (a smart early decision by Musk). But now supply has caught up with demand, with some significant challenges ahead. These include more competition, higher interest rates cooling buying power, and limited model offerings both at the lower price end and higher end SUVs. I am not sure what Musk will do, but he will have to act quickly to keep those sales coming in, while working on some new offerings that will keep Tesla in the forefront of EV sales. In the past having a Tesla car was more like a status symbol. But now you can't drive a block without seeing a white M3, so they have become a little too ubiquitous now.
Just curious, source? The reason I ask is four years ago, there were people taking photos of Teslas in parking lots and claiming 'No demand." Add to that are claimants that Teslas on ships are excess inventory meaning no demand ... some are on a slow boat along with docking and importing delays! Then there is the Tesla reported 'gap' between production and deliveries: In the fourth quarter, we produced over 439,000 vehicles and delivered over 405,000 vehicles. In 2022, vehicle deliveries grew 40% YoY to 1.31 million while production grew 47% YoY to 1.37 million. My reading is 1.37 - 1.31 ~= 60,000 vehicles world wide. How many are on boats? Where are they? Is the Chinese New Year part of Tesla's plan to shutdown the Shanghai factory for a week and continue selling the left-over, '60,000' cars? This is why I am curious about your sources. Where or who did "lots of inventory" come from? What is the basis of their claim? Bob Wilson
