As Tony Seba has said the 100 million plus vehicles sold annually will drop precipitously due to electronic autonomy down to about 5.5-10 million vehicles annually before 2030 but possibly by 2025. or a 10-18x reduction in vehicles sales. Its clear also that these vehicles will last about 10x longer than a vehicle from Ford or GM and do so much, much more reliably- about 1 million maintenance free miles vs Ford and GMs mediocre reliability over a useful life of about 100k miles. So you might as well multiply the 10x in a useful life by the 10-18x reduction in vehicles to scale down Ford and GMs vehicles sales in the coming years. This is nothing new for GM as we know it recently went bankrupt, tried to blame its union and was rewarded by having Obama fire its head as a precondition of being bailed out and then got essentially kicked out of the EU and never managed to pay back its government loan. Well recently right after giving its shareholders a 25 billion dollar gift on its workers backs it tried to screw is workers again and now it is down to producing about 8.4 million vehicles a year- quite a drop. Now let us adjust that for the future GM faces by multiplying 2018 sales by a 100-180x reduction in sales within about 5 years. This by the way has already begun, in a year where Tesla is way up GM is way down, present GM sales as a precursor to this trend have GM having the worst year in about 20s- worse than the 9% loss year that bankrupted GM requiring a government bailout which it failed to fully pay back but still managed to have 25 billion as a gift for shareholders. So its sales would go from 8.4 million to somewhere between 46-84k per year and its revenues would drop proportionately from 147 billion in 2018 to 816M-1.47B and is employees would drop from 178K to 988-1.78K but of course it will go under way, way before that (a mere 9% shortfall took it out last time)will it be bailed out, it will like it did before probably be trying to sell its plants to Tesla and then blaming Tesla for not wanting to take them. Ford isn't in a better position and that is shown in its market cap because the market gets it, the only that helped either of them was talk of electric pick ups- we saw a camouflaged Ford pick up coming out of a Tesla factory with a bunch of other Tesla's, maybe it wants Tesla to underwrite it the way GM keeps apparently trying to do with Waymo on autonomy but hand waving about its Cruz automation? Lets walk through this some other ways. The bulk of Tesla's new sales are now below the average vehicle cost in the US of 50k per vehicle (which has doubled recently because of Ford and GM and hiding behind he pickup tarrifs and bulky SUVs- to drive up gas consumption- with an insane emission waiver.) When Tesla announces a new model Ford and GM suffer because it means people recycle their old vehicles holding out for a Tesla or equivalent electric and forging a new Ford or GM because neither is viable in electrics. When Tesla sells a vehicle the coming Teslas are rated for 1 million miles (both battery and motor or full power train,) and that means that future purchase possibilities will be withheld from Ford and GM in their core tariff protected US market for up to 5 generations- they can't even hold their breath for 5 years. Also, Teslas are all coming self-driving ready and are already electric. This is where Musk has said that it won't be economical or profitable to continue to sell vehicles to the public and where Ford and GM with revenue and factory capacity and jobs to maintain ends up having to scale down operations by 100-180x. To understand this lets look at why this would be so and why it would be allowed and why it can't be stopped and why is for the greater good. The average family in the US is spending 10K a year on vehicles (purchase, maintenance, fuel, insurance, repairs, taxes, DMV, parking,) its is way way too much. This new electronic autonomy model drops that to 1K a year on vehicles making it irresistibly compelling on price alone- a 10x reduction. But it is also massively more convenient and people are already familiar with Uber and Lyft, its just these new $83 a month subscriptions have more cars out on the road and no drivers in them and frees up the garage and means no more having to park or fuel or do repairs and maintenance- all time saved. Tesla already has its fleet of these building out of its leases which it retains at the end of the lease. For the family its a massive increase in convenience and a chunk of income retained for the family which can be spent on other things like desperately needed security and paying off ridiculously inflated mortgages- it is a life line and a massive stress reducer and health improver. For cities (historically the primary political constituents) it is also a life line as it deals with deadly urban sprawl (which kills their tax base) and traffic and cuts street outlays and outlays for freeway widening and it protects the tax base. It also means people with more time (commutes are safer and much more relaxing.) It can't be stopped because it is already here and lobbying and dirty laws to slow it won't work- fossil fuel companies will be made to pay for the slack as they go down the drain they have limitless externality liability where proper precedent will ripple and improper will be ignored. Electric autonomy will go in jurisdictions around the world and the huge safety benefits and pollution benefits and lives saved from accidents and the economic losses from the medical for accidents saved and the benefits for the disabled and the elderly and restaurants where guests aren't so constricted is simply too much to stop. It is also already here. Google did 100 demonstrations in CA 10 years ago before moving to the more ideal Chandler AZ with is perfectly ruled new streets for is testing development regime. Its done 10 years of testing of its self-driving platform there with human supervisors in the vehicles. It is now rolling out an un-supervised phase before roll out to the general public. Tesla has the highway about nailed and now its entered the acid test of private parking lots at about 3-4mph but notice with smart summon there is no human in the vehicle or at the wheel. This announcement by Tesla may have spurred Google on. Notice also that Amazon just got unrestricted testing for its package aerial drones and Toyota just announced it will be getting into the aerial drone space. These are essentially pre-trials for the transport of people in aerial electric drones- people are precious cargo with different constraints but note with aerial drones that any flight over populated areas has to be fit for people because accidents would drop freight on people- so the FAA just provided unrestricted trials to Amazon- surely Amazon wants to go from 1-day shipping to 15min to 2hrs shipping- why because as an example of this going from 2 day to 1 day already doubled sales. Quantum computers too are about to optimize the Hamiltonian problems for perfect routing order and perfect pallet stacking order massively improving logistic efficiency. This brings us to China. China is still a communist country. It surely won't be big on allowing parasitic post capital defunct capitalists to hide behind unneeded jobs to use human hostages to extract profits for non-contribution. So here will Luddite movement to stop wind resistance from being the limit of production. Continued next post.