Tesla could take 50% of the US auto market pretty quickly

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by 101101, Mar 7, 2018.

  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member


    If you look at this and you look at the size of the US passenger car market the demand for the Model 3 alone could be 3 million vehicles per year. That is half of the passenger car market. Tesla's own goals while have it taking multiple percentage points of the total US vehicle market relatively quickly. When you see that 17% of people would buy the model 3 you see its half of people who by cars in the US with a sufficient N size and that is just one model in one segment.

    As for half the US vehicle market- people will say Tesla can't ramp capacity that quickly and that may be true to an extent but per Tony Seba the full on full BEV full electrification revolution will hit by 2023 and be total by 2025. So 7 years to 100%. But it also entails a 10 to 18x reduction in vehicles on the road due to autonomy and between this reduction and Tesla being able to scale in a few years adding possibly a million vehicles a year to production and not having dead sunk costs like legacy makes I think we can see a likely scenario where Ford, GM and FCA are bankrupt or merged at fire sale prices and where new players come in like Nio. Legacy makes will go bankrupt and consolidate like crazy as they try to try to retool to full robotic factories and cope with shrink in market size that longer lasting lower maintenance fully autonomous vehicles will bring.

    I also don't see the Trump presidency surviving much longer and I see an utter route of the right at the mid terms- and don't think a war of distraction is even possible nor would it change any of that only make it harder and faster, the public won't buy any more fake crap like 911 again- Millennials are pretty clear on stuff like 911 and very soon will be 75% of the work force and as fast as the Right tries to attack the clear net stuff like MaidSAFE is coming even faster and harder so the false flag people are in a pure glass house where every thing they say and do is being held against them in the court of public opinion OJ style in the context of all they have said and done the obvious need for unconditional high indexed GAIs is only compounding and accelerating this. Tony Blair's close call was just the start.

    Another trend is marijuanna and the hard blue shift it is producing. Its an antidote to fundamentalism, it flamed out the useless Vietnam war. It kills idiotic production in the work place because people basically over sickness and being in pain end up high all the time and it decimates moronic employer work place mentality only accelerating bots and robotic replacement of work and expensive hotel type office work places so its the high GAI with at best telecommutes. Yep the work place will slow down like people slowing to 5 frames per second and 15 mph on the high way because they're high 24/7 but this is part of the antithesis that will be needed to survive the transition. And it will be a transition into VR and AR fed full artificial reality way beyond TV part 2. People will never leave home and get their drone delivered organic food and LED lights that adjust with the phase of the sun preferring the virtual world to the road rage world.

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