Super positive concrete results piling up for Tesla right now

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by 101101, Apr 7, 2019.

  1. 101101

    101101 Active Member

    1. Tesla is matching Porsche sales in Germany. Now we all know Porsche is VW but Porsche is also Germany's most respected auto brand even if its parent is not. Imagine an American legacy ICE company pulling that off let alone an EV company like Tesla.

    2. Tesla Model S has the highest resale value in Germany right now. Yes more than all of Porsches offerings. I ask again imagine an American legacy ICE company pulling that off let alone an EV company like Tesla.

    3. Sandy Munro has gone from Tesla critic to quite possibly its most rabid fan. And this is a man to whom all the big OEMs have gone to for decades to tear down their competitors products and keep them informed about what moves they need to be making in market. He seems so positive its almost like he's found a new career. Let me put this in perspective. I believe Tesla interiors are better than BMWs right now by a good bit. I am not sure that Sandy would disagree. I don't know if Tesla has exceeded Lexus on interior quality yet but I like Tesla design and aesthetics better and for instance as we know the Model 3 outsold in the US in the first quarter all 30 or so of its competitors in the lower to high luxury in the US by more than each competitor vehicle's entire 2018 volume. Its crushing them. And on the things where Sandy had reservations in the past like on the design of the underbody I suspect he has revaluated that based on Tesla's total dominance in safety results. Munro has even called Musk the only hero in the US. High praise! And Munro has been keeping up by visiting China.

    4. The Chinese state seems to have faith in Tesla. Now of course the Tesla critics will say there are anterior motive (there almost always where there are groups involved, and we may not even be aware of them) but its yielding very concrete results, it looks like Tesla will have possibly their best factory yet up and running before year end. The pace of production is incredible. Tesla's production ramp up problems look to be a thing of the past- the demand stuff is pure bs, Tesla just opened up two more major regions of market.

    5. Tesla's autopilot claims are coming together, within the week it will be introducing more than 500K people to the first real self-driving step alleviating the majority of the highway task for drivers. We know where Waymo is but this is stuff people will use every day starting right now. And Tesla is about to hit hard with FSD hardware demonstrations.

    6. The Tesla Semi appears to be on track and Tesla will with the likely unveiling of its pick-up in essence across its line be defining and driving the next 20 years of revolutionary transport change.

    7. Tesla's competition in VW and Ford appear to be green washing (which leaves even more room for Tesla)- also Toyota with its stupid "self-charging" claim. Let us not forget that the Tesla Model 3 outsold Ford's F150 in the US's biggest and most competitive market California in the second half of 2018, and let us not forget that it seems Ford may be borrowing a Tesla platform to get its Electric truck out. There came a report that GM was partnering with Tesla on an EV pickup and then we saw a F150 on a shipment of Tesla's going out around the same time Ford announced a partnership with VW on an electric truck. Then we saw what appeared to be the same or a similar camouflaged vehicle shortly thereafter driving around. Domenic raised some reservations that seemed to be valid but after that the proximity to a EV Ford truck on Explorer-F150 fused running gear seen out in the open apparently raised to accommodate EV battery seemed to reinforce the sense of for me of possible Tesla involvement. And Ford has been making noise about a Mustang SUV (because its ditched cars in the US) getting better than Model Y range. I'd suggest this is the result of green washing on Ford's part. Its stock is going up because Ford is making it look like its not choosing to go out of business with ICE by starting to take EVs seriously but meanwhile its sales for Q1 year on year are down 5% (kind of numbers it had in the crash when it teetered on bankruptcy) while Tesla's are up by 110% for the quarter. You have to see what Ford is doing is a bit like the Diesel scandal or the fail convincingly strategy where they manage appearances while behind the scenes they do nothing or set it up so they can cushion their intentionally bad decisions with more lay offs. So until we see actual product from Ford or VW that is succeeding in the market, especially from Ford, just like with its dividend it is just more stock price manipulation games- same kind of stuff the shorts try to do with the media. VW green washing comes from the hobbling games with the QTron and the Taycan where the Taycan is too slow and the Qtron has to little range in order to fail convincingly (presumably to fail convincingly in the same kind of fraud as Diesel gate- another variant of deliberate failure but where they tried to hid the face ), despite VW ramping up rhetoric.

    I think Bill Gates claim that only a hand full of people in the world hold petrol equity (this is about having say over that equity- other people constantly get straddled with shouldering its unending losses) and Gates saying we should avoid alienating them by doing something about petrol because their assistance will be needed tells us everything we need to know. This is a entitled bunch of parasitic non contributing malevolents a pharistocracy or petrarchy. that are career liars and have most of what they have through deceiving the public and that is actively resisting down through its captured chain of CEOs who are married in or relatives themselves. Governments and people need to approach it as organized crime- that will be critical to getting change. When the Bushes went after the Baathest it was a clash of petrarchy but this is about global society deposing petrarchy over all and that will be critical to having freedom at work and in other places.
     
  2. DaleL

    DaleL Active Member

    I must admire 101101's enthusiasm for Tesla and Elon Musk. However, if one does not cherry pick the numbers, but instead looks to reality, Tesla may not be out of the "woods" quite yet. Although the predictions of Tesla's imminent demise are very premature, the company does have just $2.7 billion in cash and can ill afford another unprofitable year.

    In summary, in 2018, Tesla had 53.0% of the US EV sales. This was even with Model 3 production not really ramping up until the second half of 2018. In the first three months of 2019, Tesla had 48.9% of the US EV sales. During the last 6 months of 2018, Tesla had 62.2% of the US EV sales. During the last 6 months of 2018, Tesla sold in the US and average of 19,325 Model 3s per month. In the first 3 months of 2019, Tesla sold in the US an average of 7,475 Model 3s per month. Tesla is shifting sales overseas, to Europe in particular, but European Tesla Model 3 sales were just 3,724 in February. The March numbers are much better, but they could be a temporary surge due to shipping issues.

    The stark reality is that Tesla's US market share has dropped from a peak of 62.2% of EV sales to 48.9%. Elon Musk stated in February, that Tesla would not have a profitable 2019 1st quarter. Tesla's sales numbers for the first quarter of 2019 were bad enough that the stock took an 8% hit. These are NOT "super positive concrete results".
     
  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yes, but Tesla dropping its domestic (U.S./Canada) market share was by choice; by starting to ship the Model 3 overseas.

    I mean, this like observing that 2 - 1 = 1, and then crying that it's terrible how 2 got reduced to 1. With Tesla's one single assembly plant, in Fremont, maxed out, there was no way that Tesla could possibly ship a significant percentage of its Model 3 production overseas without reducing its domestic sales numbers. That was entirely expected by anyone who follows Tesla and exercises at least a smidgen of common sense.

    Now, that's not to say we should ignore the reality that Tesla's income, and profits, are down this quarter. I just did a survey of Google News to see what showed up for Tesla, and the stories about Tesla are pretty much negative across the board, due to Tesla's disappointing sales and lack of profits last quarter. Even though industry watchers expected the drop in sales -- or if they didn't, they certainly should have -- it's still not good news. So the extremely upbeat, cheerleader OP post by 101101 here is jarringly out of step with reality.

    But hopefully the lack of profits by Tesla this quarter is a one-time thing, not to be repeated this year. Tesla had two quarters of significant profits last year, altho if my understanding is correct, overall there were no net profits for the year. If Tesla can show a net profit this year, with three quarters of positive net profits, then I for one would call that progress.

    So let us please not allow a single quarter of zero net profits to cause us to do the tearing-out-hair-and-rending-clothes thing, hmmm? Let's not overreact. Tesla is in this for the long game, not the short one. Sadly, since the "greed is good" movement of the 1980s, Wall Street has focused on short-term gains at the expense of long-term stability and sound business practices. We should applaud Tesla for bucking the trend, and keeping its eye on the long term goal rather than short-term profits.

    Keep going Tesla!
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2019
  4. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    There are the extreme views in this debate, (@101101 on one side and @TeslaInvestor on the other with @Pushmi-Pullyu being closer to @101101 side). Speaking for myself and possibly @DaleL we are more towards the middle, that Tesla has a lot going for it, but there are headwinds that could create a big dent. Most but not all will agree that Tesla needs to mature as an organization, and that Elon may need to be a little more discrete. The revolution is definitely gaining ground and steam, but the Empire may still strike back. While I do acknowledge the great success of Tesla and the visionary leadership of Elon, I think that Tesla is not over the hump and that we need to watch for a few more quarters.

    I am sure that others can disagree with my position, and I have known to be wrong. But if we do, let us disagree politely.
     
    DaleL likes this.
  5. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    The only thing I'd disagree with, there, is that Elon needs to be a lot more discreet*, at least when it comes to tweeting material statements about Tesla's business prospects.

    Contrariwise, I'm entirely unconvinced that his action in taking a single hit off a marijuana cigarette, in California where it's legal, during a late-night marathon podcast, when the doobie was offered to him by his host, was anything that should worry investors... but my opinion on that point seems to be rather sharply in the minority.

    *I'm guessing you actually meant "discreet" rather than "discrete". But if you think Elon Musk is, perhaps, actually the pseudonym for some sort of group mind, that might be a fascinating hypothesis to explore. Regarding his visionary futurism and his indefatigable work ethic, It could explain a lot! :D #GrammarNazi

     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2019
  6. 101101

    101101 Active Member

    Teslanomics Tesla crushes competition in Q1 2019- this does a pretty good job of substantiating what I was saying above.

     
  7. 101101

    101101 Active Member

    Oh no! Model 3 best selling care in Switzerland and best selling car in Norway and best selling in CA 2nd half of 2018- still have to be best selling car in CA or at least in Southern CA- I see so many here its crazy. Its is a Model 3 invasion in California. And the Model 3s I see just keep looking better and better. Not sure why. Today I saw a black one parked out side of a coffee shop, it had custom window tints, the rims the tires, everything looked so awesome on it. It is just absolutely a way better product than anything its competition produces- they are so far behind I don't think you can call them competition- they are just gross polluters and totally obsolete.
     
  8. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    #GrammarNazi thank your pointing out what I did not learn well in 5th grade. You are right on both counts, Elon needs to be a lot more discreet. And no, I am not one of those who believe that Elon is a leader of a secret cult out to impose a new world order.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    RATS!!!

    Another fail.

    Bob Wilson
     

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