Shorts going to start shorting Fossil Fuels before 2025?

Discussion in 'Energy' started by 101101, Jun 8, 2019.

  1. 101101

    101101 Active Member

    The big picture is that China is the new economic power in the world. it is not a built out economy so it has a long long ways to go before it burns out its economic fuel. It is already doing to the built out US what the US did to Britain after WWII. It has become the industrial power in the world and can self-sustain just on building out its domestic economy. Is stated goal is to become fully democratic by 2040 (but also fully socialist in the good sense.) During the early years with its system either it or Russia has the record for economic growth, but now since the cultural revolution it has had 4 plus decades of economic growth unlike anything the world has ever seen. And its fully committed to becoming 100% green. Nothing is going to stop that! That alone gives it a cost of goods advantage against antiquated fossil fuel based economies with something like a 30% cost advantage. That is an insurmountable competitive advantage against fossil fuel economies.
    Do we think China is going to want to buy shale gas from the US? No way in hell, it has no use for permanently radically non-cost competitive polluting forms of obsolete legacy energy- fossil fuel is already something like 6x more expensive and soon enough it will be 1000x more expensive than green energy. No China gains from going 100% green as fast as possible, that's a moral and political gain as well. And there is no way the US can force the matter as China is a nuclear power. We are not going to fight an un-survivable WWIII to save Southern plantation type fossil fuels- right now its like a trip in the way back machine where the Confederate South is trying to extract concessions from the Union North- with what(?) more slave produced cotton that it doesn't need. It is not going to happen.

    You hear the US talking about becoming more democratic? No its too busy trying to become autocratic to protect technologically obsolete fossil fuels and the useless rent seeking behind it. If the US wants to continue to compete on the world stage it needs to focus on carrying out the GND and providing high indexed cradle to grave guaranteed annual incomes, un-sponsoring its media and it needs to focus on AI- but right now it is trying to break up Google- its best shot at competing in AI.

    It was 70 years ago when the US first put those laws on the books to suppress patents and inventions that could cause economic disruption- these were unjust laws meant to protect fossil fuel producers against Thorium breeder reactors in particular. Something like 1lbs of uranium or $50 of it would power a person's entire life and with Thorium breeding the economics is 2000x than with uranium but the proliferation and pollution risks and handling costs are minimized (despite this during Carter, Thorium research was stopped ironically over proliferation- when Thorium renders inert fuel) But 70 years have passed and despite suppressing something like 5500 possibly better approaches to essentially free energy and an end to all its rent seeking we finally ended up with battery backed solar- and battery backed roof top solar in particular because it cuts out the rent seeking middle man in a way that wind with its moving parts doesn't and big production mills doesn't- finally and predictably a pedestrian technology that in practice doesn't add much heat pollution and is better than hot fusion has arrived. That is the truth, current battery backed roof top solar is better than perfected hot fusion- do we think fossil fuels could compete with hot fusion (Lockheed Martin let out the bag that it has that 10 years ago,)- no we don't and it certainly can't compete with current green, not ever, it is over.

    But what has to be understood is the switch has been turned off on the fossil fuel supply. Fossil fuels have plodded along for 70 years based on gag orders , censorship, lying and raw inexcusable corruption but that can't continue with China and now the EU and really the rest of the world. It has probably been 6 years since fossil fuels even massively subsidized could be competitive at retail.

    Jim Chanos has shown us the way. He pointed out what a fraud shale gas was and became rich shorting Enron. Presumably his friends in oil clued him in about what a scam shale was. He has never ceased to criticize it. Anyone who can think and understood the nature of OPEC knew it wasn't a bridge fuel of any sort- the US was the key player in OPEC. Shale was just a scam. So Chanos made a bunch of money occasionally telling a tiny bit of the truth about shale presumably on behalf of the coal and petroleum industries. We should have been done with coal a long time ago right- why is that dinosaur still around (?) only corruption keeps it around. So just by the letting the truth out (even if they can't bribe the sponsored media at its accustomed rates) should allow shorts to profit by shorting fossil fuels and do so even with government policy that attempts to socialize fossil fuel losses and this is because fossil fuels are a bubble getting ready to pop as the Trump defensive tariffs show (can't compete against lower cost of goods green economies) and as the prior derivatives based crash (almost all the world's derivatives are blind insurance on permanently stranded fossil fuel assets) strongly hinted.

    But you may ask what is the secret this makes no sense. Here is the secret. We in the US and the West have created a system that can only retire old debt with new debt. That means debt must be maximized. That means wages must be suppressed to prevent savings because savings discourages more debt and education must be suppressed to prevent the numeracy that would stand in the way of the system or else education must be incurred at the cost of more debt. In line with this debt maximization logic (debt for control) massively publically subsidized fossil fuel companies borrow from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and their ilk to pay their dividends (which amount to pure transfer payments because the firms have never been solvent without ever increasing subsidies and bailout wars because the aggregate economic efficiency of fossil fuels is lean to the point that over time it is scarcity inducing at ever increasing rates) and the same firms like Goldman Sachs turn around and lend the money to buy the permanently stranded petrol assets and then on the other side, that is Goldman Sach and its ilk sells the insurance on those bad debt liabilities as an investment opportunity (scam) to pensions funds and health, life, auto insurance and banks that do mortgages in the form of essentially in-auditable blind derivatives. And those same stupid firms that buy junk derivatives like Liberty Mutual also buy the stock of permanent fossil fuel losers like PG&E and then turn around and insure firms like PG&E on their coal plants and then try to pass along the endless losses when PG&E goes bankrupt supposedly for forest fires and LM gets predictably burned on both ends or multiple ends in hyper inflating rate increases to their home insurance customers while electricity rate payers in the state get bilked with rate increases in a never ending spiral of loss socializing on this corrupt rent seeking. It is in essence a Ponzi scheme based on a rent seeking but the crucial difference now is the enclosure that enables the rent seeking has failed (technological obsolescence- the technological cat is out of the bag and the rent seeking cord is being cut) so this piece of cheese has an expiration date.
     
  2. 101101

    101101 Active Member

    Recap:

    1. China is the new industrial & tech power in the world and by its own count its tech dominance will be complete by 2025 when it controls the top ten core technologies in the world- this is real and its happening China is securing more patents year after year than the US and EU combined.

    2. China is a nuclear power with nuclear weapons and it has the resources and and the head room in a domestic economy alone to be essentially self-sustaining if need be, there will be not counter to its counter example.

    3. China and the rest of the world no longer are subject to the rent seeking on fossil fuels because the enclosure has been permanently broken and everyone has access to a superior snap-in instant replacement that saves them huge amounts of money and makes their economies radically more competitive in the process. This is a vast improvement to the idiot power down strategy of the West where they blow co2 limits to retain ill-gotten power/gain and where they drag everyone down with them as a cost of retaining power- that is already off the table- but that they even tried it is a war crimes level offense that won't be lived down and is already having consequences.

    Now this is of course not investment advice but I'll give you my list of companies that I think will be bankrupt and not bailed out by 2026: Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, B.P., Koch Industries, Ford, GM, FCA, these will go the way Peabody coal went. I think BMW and Mercedes merge and Honda and Toyota merge. That 3.6 trillion in global fossil fuel industry annual revenue will get knocked down to less than 300 billion. Here is what I think happens on the banking side even where there are mergers they get reduced to their reserves- they take a 95% haircut on their valuations in sale or merger, they get knocked down to size. And on the fossil fuel side they get knocked down to 10% or their size or the size of their materials trade business. But many banks and fossil fuel companies get zeroed out and their share-holders don't even get that. I don't think nationalization saves the fossil fuel businesses either. I don't think the GOP survives. I don't think the Federal reserve survives. The GOP and about half of the DNC will be blamed for this and will be ripped to pieces. I also think the so-called moderate (idiot- sell out) part of the democratic party gets ejected and destroyed. What will remain will be left of Bernie, a full pendulum swing so that AOC is the new norm. At this point I think it is very unlikely that Trump can be re-selected or elected and it will be much worse for the already defunct GOP if he is. John Boener's concerns confirmed. I think there will also be a very serious reckoning on sponsored (bribery based) media the mechanism that more than any other allowed capture of state organs- it was as if the US were soft concurred and proxied to foreign states and multinationals- that's not an overstatement. We simply can't have 'sponsored' media because it leads to sponsored bribery based worthless governance or law as crime.

    The reckoning that is coming next is that we put idiots in power and they ran the ship aground also that their ideologies including toll road privatization and endless public private partnerships the Thaterite TINA types stuff couldn't be more failed or more stupid or craven because it was completely inverse to actual contribution and proper incentives- trickle down is a game were we reward a class of non contributing morons and buffoons. I think these changes perspective will give us a chance to neuter the executive branch, make it more like a PMship (no more pageant of idiots,) possibly add a member to the Supreme Court to produce deadlock on elite promotion issues and get rid of the electoral college and reapportion the senate. The US is going to have to get rid of the elitist supports that have brought its society to the brink unnecessarily too many times- the US elites are failures and failures in their backwards ideology, PNAC although it was a captured ideology has already obviously failed.

    Imagine where the US would have been if it hadn't wasted the last 20-30 years in the Mid East destroying its reputation and wasting its resources. The Mid East travesties will come to be seen in the US as a greater loss of opportunity and a greater travesty than Vietnam, that is surely opinion elsewhere in the world already.
     

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