SHORT squeeze $380/share

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Dec 17, 2019.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Dang! Everyone is happy.

    Bob Wilson
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Another $20 and another small tranche will be sold to help cover some recent expenses: (1) dental; (2) nail in tire, and; (3) vet bill.

    Bob Wilson
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    The stock market is closed today, Monday, Jan 17, 2020. Regardless:

    24,950,000 - Prior Short Interest shares
    22,750,000 - Latest Short Interest shares
    16.00 % - Short Percent of Float
    -9 % - Short % Increase / Decrease

    This is what I would have expected after Tesla offered a new stock sale:


    3,047,500 / 22,750,000 = 13.4% dilution of the Short Interest shares

    It is going to be harder for SHORT lies to instill the type of volatile price changes.

    Bob Wilson
  4. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Two things:
    • SHORT squeeze
    • Institutional investors stopped listening to the SHORTS
    The institutional investors realized they missed the $917/$180 TSLA stock growth. Like APPL in 1991, they missed the jackpot. They won’t do that again. More importantly, they will bring stability that is poisonous to SHORTS.

    As for the SHORTS, welcome to the obscurity they so richly earned.

    Bob Wilson
  6. Got another big upgrade/target price increase today. Has become a fav for day-traders, and they are driving it. The higher it goes, the farther it could fall, though. So not for the faint of heart. This is not a stock I would hold these days. But you can certainly make a lot of money with it, if you are a good day trader.
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I appreciate the thoughts but I've been "profit taking." My first tranche paid off the Model 3 saving both loan interest and insurance costs. My current tranche will liquidate the remaining debt. I'm not a 'day trader' and have no interest.

    Bob Wilson
  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    WOW do I hope you are right! It would be absolutely wonderful to see a motive for so much of the anti-Telsa FUD we see posted to social media, to simply -- in the words of Lewis Carroll -- "softly and suddenly vanish away".

  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    The daily, SHORT interest has increased:
    Market Date Short Volume Total Volume Short Volume Ratio
    2020-02-21  4,267,765 14,339,400 29.76%
    2020-02-20  5,002,009 17,634,900 28.36%
    2020-02-18  4,412,520 16,698,300 26.42%
    2020-02-14  3,134,040 15,693,700 19.97%
    2020-02-13  4,897,532 26,289,300 18.63%
    2020-02-12  2,494,613 12,022,400 20.75%
    2020-02-11  2,508,656 11,697,400 21.45%
    2020-02-10  5,436,948 24,689,100 22.02%
    2020-02-06 11,052,944 39,880,700 27.72%
    2020-02-05  9,688,331 48,423,800 20.01%

    It is as if the recent, 5 day, $880 - $913 has triggered the SHORTs to come out again. Seriously, a range of $33?

    Bob Wilson
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    A funny thing happened at 4:00 AM:
    The stock price had been $899 until about 4:00 AM when a sudden sale happened, 2,820 share with a drop in price to $858, in theory, a loss of $115,620. Then some desultory trades that given the cumulative after hours number, 472,852, suggests a larger position trade and loss for the after hours. But I think this is a trick.

    The ending, lower price, a theoretical loss of $41/share, would project a loss of $19.4 M. But the real volumes at the lower price are much less. A 'spoofed' loss, could someone be trying to trigger a sell-off?

    Bob Wilson

    This is just how Wall Streets operates. These same guys, Jeffries, hyped the stock with upgrades last fall and right into Jan, driving the stock up as far as it could go. You can bet they did all their buying beforehand, too. Now that it is falling, they are doing the opposite, with downgrades trying to drive it down as far as it can go. Again, you can bet they did their selling/shorting prior to this latest downgrade.

    Unfortunately, the big losers are often the retail investors who buy into a lot of the hype, as well as the fear, and are easily manipulated with sentiment. And it is not just TSLA, but many of the high flyer stocks that are stretched well beyond their fundamentals. You can make a lot of money on these, but you also have to be very disciplined and nimble. At best they are great day trading stocks, with their big momentum swings, both ways. I have found in the past (when I did a lot of day trading), it was easier to make money on a short than a long buy, as the timing to get in and out was a lot more predictable. But in any case, these are not stocks to hold at this point in time. And can cause a lot of needless stress during times like this.

    In the past I have made most of my money during/after big sell-offs. I am very much an opportunist investor/trader, and when things look the absolute worst is actually the best time to buy quality stocks with solid fundamentals.
    Pushmi-Pullyu and bwilson4web like this.
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Recently, TSLA has decreased by ~$100/share. So I picked up a source of daily short activities and the closing price of TSLA for each day. I then ran three different SHORT durations:
    • 1 day - peak profit $70/share; max loss $55/share
    • 3 day - peak profit $100/share; max loss $100/share
    • 5 day - no profit, just to $0/share; max loss $140/share
    TSLA is experiencing more SHORT activity, ~26-29%, up from 20%. But if I've done my sums correctly, no great win without recent great loss. One late thought.

    During the 2008 financial collapse, Ford had been criticized before it happened for taking out massive, loans. But it meant Ford did not have to (or get to) take bailout money like GM and Chrysler. The $2B stock offering makes Tesla look brilliant, like Ford.

    Bob Wilson
  13. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yeah, during a time in which the Dow Jones average dropped in two days more than... Well, Mr. Google says that one of those days was the third-worst in the history of the Dow, and I think the newsies said that the next day wasn't much better.

    So not surprising that such a volatile stock as Tesla's would drop significantly when the overall market is dropping so drastically in such a short time.

    Not that this in any way helps your stock portfolio, Bob, but I don't think it's an indication that there's something wrong at Tesla. However, given the general worry about the coronavirus, now predicted to spread without limit in every country, it could be that part of that is worry that Tesla's China (Shanghai) Gigafactory (Gf3) will be shut down again, or worry that Gf3 won't be able to get parts because their Chinese suppliers have shut down their business due to the spreading plague.

  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I agree but would like to share some of my history with Apple. In 1991, we widely knew Apple was going to come out with the Powerbook 140:
    But there was no indication of any stock movement. So I bought 100 shares.

    Later that year, I sold my Apple stock after doubling my money. We used that as part of the downpayment on our house. We still have the house.

    We know through 'rumor' that in about two weeks, the Model Y will be officially open for sales in the USA. I'm looking forward to seeing the stock bump.

    Bob Wilson
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    A quick summary last night and I found my "profit taking" has led to ~$2.5k short of a complete return on investment (i.e., initial_investment - profits_taken ~= -$2.5k.) However, I still have 60 shares of TSLA and 140 shares of KL gold mining stock.

    So the profits went to: (1) diversified gold mining stock; (2) paid off car loan; (3) paid some end-of-year expenses and repairs; (4) trip to late friend's surviving family and my Mom, and; (5) liquidated significant credit card balance. Most of these are cost avoidance which means I'll be able to liquidate the last of the credit card balance in about 4-6 weeks.

    There is a lot of FUD around COVID-19 inspired in part by inspired public health response. There was a need for a stock market correction for which COVID-19 is blamed. Regardless, my expectation is when TSLA reaches a local minimum and the KL gold mining a local peak, I'll take Gold mining profits to increase my TSLA holding. Looking forward to the 'dead cat bounce'.

    Bob Wilson
  16. I assume by near 100% return, you mean doubling your initial investment outlay. That's good, although depends also on what time period you are talking, again I am assuming in the last year or two. Although just 60 shares of TSLA is nothing to sweat about right now, although I would have sold that, too, at least a week ago, given what is going on.

    But what really puzzles me, is that you say you have credit card debt, had a car loan for the M3, and didn't I read that you say you are 70 and a recently retired engineer. I don't like to judge people, but from many of your posts about TSLA, you tried to come across like a knowledgeable investor/financially wise person. Of course I don't know your complete financial situation and you might have very sound explanations and reasoning for what you are doing. But hopefully, your debt is a short term situation and you have lots of equity/net worth to enjoy your retirement.

    BTW, I guess you know that gold is also falling big right now.
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Hindsight is always 20/20 but foresight is less clear. So it is great to look at history and say, "I would have <done something>" when in reality, no one knows what the stock price will be the next day.

    Managing cash flow is not trivial and in my case, "Wilson", means a lot of things become due in Oct-Dec. Paying 4th quarter bills, tags, taxes and insurance, is not optional.

    The nice thing about a gold mining stock is it stays in the ground until mined and gold is not always down. For example, when TSLA dipped in the middle of 2019, I liquidated my gold to buy as much cheap TSLA as I could and that bet payed off nicely.

    I don't need the cash for any immediate bills so my investments remain safely in my accounts. I am watching the price of TSLA and if it gets 'cheap' again or KL gold mining gets 'cheap' again, I have no problem shifting my capital.

    My financial principles are:
    • know the product or service - I have to be a customer because 'analysts' are:
      • abysmally ignorant (aka., Chanos)
      • liars (aka., Wahlman)
    • buy low - when demonstratively undervalued
      • new product releases and production are open secrets
    • sell high - when demonstratively overvalued
      • know what things cost
    • don't be greedy - take small profits on a rise
      • don't kill the goose that lays golden eggs
    • minimize recurring costs but pay your bills
      • interest is cheaper than penalties
    If you have another approach, go for it. But it does not inspire confidence to claim "hindsight" is a credible stock purchase or selling principle. I find having some degree of fuzzy foresight works much better.

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
  18. You can't call it hindsight if you look at my post #47 on Feb 19, where I warned that it was grossly overly bought driven up by Wall Street bulls (who were actually getting ready to sell/short it). I said then I would not hold that stock anymore at that time given those conditions. Sure enough, that day was the last high mark for the stock, and it has gone down ever since, accelerating now with the corona virus news.

    And I warned again on Tues, Feb 24, post #57, with the downgrades coming, after which it really plummeted. All the signs could not have been more negative for the stock at that time. And I explained why again.

    If you want to make money in the stock market you have to act decisively and fast. Failure to sell (ie no stops) from an over bought high is a very bad mistake, but is usually made by amateurs not experienced traders/investors.

    Just trying to help you out, but if you think you know better, well, good luck.
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    It would make more sense if you'd also recommended buying TSLA when back in middle 2019. Or did I miss that?

    So with such excellent foresight, how much did you make with TSLA stock?

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020

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