Q4 poll countdown

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Oct 28, 2018.

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Tesla Gross Profit for Q4 2018

Poll closed Dec 30, 2018.
  1. < $0 - loss

    0 vote(s)
  2. $0 - 1.5 B

  3. $1.5 - $2.25 B

  4. $2.25-$2.75 B

  5. +$2.75 B

    0 vote(s)
  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    For fun and games, change your vote at any time.

    My opinion:
    • Tesla has excess manufacturing capacity in a red-hot demand market.
    • Tesla is still tuning their systems.
    • There was no mention of Canadian and Mexican sales.
    • Although EU sales are projected to start in 2019, I suspect someone might 'jump the gun.'
    • The trade war might . . . wimp out.
    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2018
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  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Why should there be any mention of Mexican sales? I'm puzzled whenever I read comments re Tesla selling in Mexico. Tesla has exactly 1, count 'em one, store in all of Mexico. That's a good indication of the demand there, or rather the lack of demand. No offense to our south-of-the-border amigos, but that's not going to change in the foreseeable future.

    I certainly hope so! If it doesn't wimp out while the Big Cheeto is in office, we can be pretty sure it will very soon after he leaves. You have to be pretty stupid to conduct a unilateral trade war, and very seldom do we get a president who's not only stupid, but refuses to listen to people smarter than he is.

  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Mexico and Canada can serve as a 'bent pipe' to get Tesla products and materials to and from China. From memory, Tesla reports ~$56 M as the additional material cost due to the Orange One. But bent pipes can flow both ways and I suspect cars shipped to either Mexico or Canada could avoid the mistake.

    So when I was designing the poll, I started with $1,523,665,000 gross profit for Q3 or $1.5 B:
    • <$0 - the ghosts of Gene Wilder and Zero Mostel take over Martin Tripp who blows up the GigaFactory and/or Fremont [​IMG]
    • $0-$1.5 B - less gross profit than Q3 because of some unusual, one time, profit in Q3. Alternatively, the Orange One finally accomplishes Putin's goal.
    • $1.5-$2.25 B - up to an ~50% gross profit increase over Q3.
    • $2.25-$2.75 B - over an ~50% gross profit increase over Q3.
    • $2.75 B - over an ~85% gross profit increase over Q3.
    If I designed the poll right, we should have a flat distribution across all responses. More importantly, we can focus on 'bottom line' issues. For example, I bulleted my initial vote but a finer analysis could move my vote up or down:
    • $1.5 B * 50% = $0.75 B
    • $2.25 B is the boundary between a 50% increase
    • $2.75 B is the boundary for more than an 83% increase, $1.25 B increase.
    So using the Q3 earnings we can estimate best possible production 7,000 - 4,300 = 2,700 additional units per week or +62% increase. Gross margin 20% could increase with further tuning of Model 3 production to perhaps 30% (Sandy Munro.)

    Bob Wilson
  5. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    That reads like you're talking about "gray market" cars, which means cars sold for shipment to one country but get diverted to another. In years past I have seen a conspiracy theory among the anti-Tesla pravduh "Wolf Pack" crowd that Tesla uses such sales to inflate its sales numbers; a conspiracy theory that not all of Tesla's sales are sold on the legitimate market. Of course, none of the pravduh Wolf Pack could ever cite even one single VIN for such imaginary cars, but hey, since when does the Wolf Pack need actual facts as the basis of its conspiracy theories? ;)

    I hope we're not about to see a similar conspiracy theory from Tesla supporters! I feel confident in saying that if there was ever a substantial stream of cars exported from the U.S. to Canada or Mexico being diverted to China, then both U.S. and Chinese customs officials would take notice. In fact, there was already a case a few years ago where Chinese customs officials sent a shipment of Tesla cars back to the U.S. because the VINs didn't match what was on the shipping invoice.

    Details here.

  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I hadn't heard about this but I wasn't following Tesla in 2014. I was just remembering the $56 M tariff cost of Chinese sourced parts and material in the Q3 report.

    Bob Wilson
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

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