TLDR: Shared electric autonomy is projected to lead to a massive reduction in the number of vehicles on the road. This will translate into a massive reduction in revenue for GM, how will it be able to continue to finance itself with an addressable market %5-30% the size of its present market? Shared electric autonomy in the air (see Lilium) is also a possibly an even more disruptive potential- seems Tesla has taken not of this too. ----- Now lets say we don't believe that GM is run by illuminist or at least that it has the right management now. Lets also say that we don't believe that GM has a proverbial hook in its rear end from petrol or that it can at least get free of it in time. Lets also say that we are aware that GM had supposed record sales at the end of 2016 supposedly attributed to the Chinese market. And lets say that the 20 billion that GM did in stock by back wasn't just to make it look like the market wasn't foreclosing on it in the face of its record year over Tesla (I thought the response to the buy-back was a 3% decline- double checked and it appears I was also at least partly wrong because there was a subsequent spike in GM's stock price) Lets say all this holds. Lets even say that GM is doing ok in self-driving cars- which I doubt and suspect they will lean on Waymo. Lets suppose all of that. Even if we can say all this, there is something Tony Seba used to bring up a lot but has toned down ,possibly because it's probably to gut wrenching for audiences to handle, and that is that electric sharing autonomy is expected to reduce the number of cars on the road by 18x rather quickly by say 2025 or 2030. Nothing he has said lately reverses that expectation and he was thorough in breaking that expectation down against every obvious trend including population growth. Now how would that impact GM? 18x less revenue? 18x less employees? 18x less factories? What does 18x less cars mean for GM? That they go from selling 10 million cars a year to 550K? Actually I am starting to remember a more recent presentation, where the numbers Seba presented have a more gentle slope. But lets be very charitable and say only 20 percent of cars will remain. How does GM survive on 20% of its current revenue- and this is assuming GM can hold its own in the coming decade? Maybe those cars are somehow more expensive to help prop up GM's revenue? Maybe, but they would also likely be more like commodity units canceling some of that increase in unit price and revenue- Toyota has expressed this concern that the product will be expensive (retool) less profitable because its harder to differentiate in a commodity environment and not a fun business to be in as a result. So to be generous lets say that is 30% of its present revenue that GM would have to survive on. And this is if it can manage to hold on to its revenue and out compete new comers that don't have its baggage as it down sizes and cannibalizes its current organization- compete against Tesla and Chinese competitors that can take share without these disadvantages or having to deal with real sunk cost and investment in obsolete tech and plant property, without having to cannibalize themselves. Where is the room for GM's famous profit first focus in this? Surely it will try to hide behind jobs just like it blamed unions for its bankruptcy in the recent past? And now the kicker, this is precisely why despite selling literally 100x more cars and doing a $20 billion dollar stock buy back the market has been valuing Tesla higher than GM as of late- well that and its history of failing convincingly on EV and solvency problems etc and blaming its bankruptcy in the middle of a pro petrol regime on its unions/workers. Its dishonesty in the media should be counted too. Another measure where GM really tips its hand is where it put out an actual stat on its expected autonomy cost per mile and it was just under $1.00 a mile on electric autonomy in 2030 whereas Tesla was saying its Tesla network would be at $.60 per mile in 2018-19 if memory serves. This makes Tesla look likes its well over a decade ahead of GM. Think about GMs tactics in trying to keep Tesla out of Detroit, was it part of the lobby that tried to prevent Tesla from making full use of its credits? It still hasn't learned to be honest and open and play fair, seems it doesn't think it survive it it does. I can see one way for GM to survive. Its to go full electric in everything essentially attempting to copy Tesla. It can copy Lilium and go with electric aviation, and do electric barges, and electric storage and electric charge stations and solar cell. But to do that it would have to get that petrol hook out of its arse right down to the make up of its board. It also has to become a more open and honest company and start to understand that profit and rich parasites are last not first a distraction not a priority, probably has to change its management first culture as well. A couple good gestures would be moving the head-quarters and re-naming the company to something electric friendly. Needs to drop its scams i.e., hybrids (hybrids were important in the past) and hydrogen and conflation of hybrids and hydrogen with electrification- it should cut all its ties with the petrol industry outside of plastics and chemicals and get into fully green powered plants and zero waste. Stop using the shills in media. If its got something to say let it say it through un-sponsored publications with people with a reputation for honesty and non bias. No more phony studies.