Nikola (NKLA) stock performance

Discussion in 'Nikola' started by Domenick, Jun 8, 2020.

  1. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Founded in 2015, Nikola has made a number of product announcements and showed off a variety of prototypes of both electric and fuel cell vehicles. There is a lot of skepticism surrounding the company, but also a lot of hope.

    This thread is to discuss the performance of its stock. It is not a place to discuss the viability of hydrogen fuel cells generally. Please respect those with different opinions about the technology and/or the company. We want an amicable conversation here regardless of your position.

    It used an unconventional approach to its IPO: it merged with a company -- VectoIQ Acquisition.

    In its early days, the stock NKLA has does pretty well, hanging out in the mid-$30's for a few days before shooting up $37.30 to end today's (6-08-20) trading at $73.27. That gives it a market cap of $19.29 billion.

    NKLA.jpg
     
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  2. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Little update after a week of trading. The chart below tracks the past month of trading. Since spiking last week, the stock is seeming to slowly settle. At least one of our members here tried to buy some stock to short but there was none available.

    According to Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3 on Twitter) "We have $NKLA float as 164.52 million shares as provided by FactSet."

    It's interesting looking at the commentary on Twitter surrounding the stock. It seems like there are a good number of short positions, but there are also some longs. I think one of the biggest problems I see here is with people on both sides of the trade looking at $NKLA like they do $TSLA. They are, ostensibly, in a related business but each company tends to have a unique path. You can't just take what you've learned from one and apply it to the other.

    Like Tesla, though, this could be a pretty interesting stock to watch for observers like myself (I'm prohibited from trading in automotive stocks). An outspoken founder, a potentially disruptive technology, and lots of interest. It will become especially entertaining if it displays the same kind of volatility TSLA has shown over its history.

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  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

  4. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

  5. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Thought this might be an interesting transaction for investors to be aware of: Nikola Insiders File to Sell 53.4 Million Shares

    I'm not really sure of all the implications of this but it hasn't seemed to have affected the stock. it closed today at $67.73, up a bit.
     
  6. Hah, what a way to put a nail into the coffin of your own company... Yeah, they better sell fast, while they can. Stock right now is being played by the merry band of Robinhood day traders. When they are done, just a few tatters left on the floor...
     
  7. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    There has been an exposé of Nikola published at Bloomberg, followed by what some are calling a "meltdown" by Nikola CEO Trevor Milton. This double whammy has apparently caused quite a hit to the stock price.

    From Bloomberg: "Nikola Founder Exaggerated the Capability of His Debut Truck"

    * * * * *

    From Twitter:


    Trevor Milton
    @nikolatrevor

    Jun 17

    This just got sent to Bloomberg by our legal team. I wont stand for lies from Journalists when they knowingly deceive to harm others - It hurts all journalists. Wait until the full recorded interview comes out and it will expose Ed Ludlow for who he is.

    Trevor Milton
    @nikolatrevor

    Jun 17

    This is sad.
    @EdLudlow should be let go. He will never set foot in my building or events Nikola puts on. No one in Bloomberg either. His editor was even on the phone to hear my responses. Release the whole interview since it was recorded. People will see you for the deceiver you are. Everyone at the event knew we didn't drive it because it wasnt safe, although it could be driven if we wanted to with safety and time put into it without the fuel cell. The truck built could have been driven w/ testing
    He ruined Bloomberg good name. I dont back down and happy to take this fight on. The funny part is, he won't hurt me. He hurt himself for this hack job of an article. There were "no gears and motors missing" you jackjob. They were sitting on the tables to show the audience in person. Why would we have them in the truck if weren't going to drive it? You blew any chance of any interview again. https://bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-06-17/nikola-s-founder-exaggerated-the-capability-of-his-debut-truck?sref=iW3WrQuv&__twitter_impression=true

     
  8. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    This is an interesting development and goes to the founder and chairman's credibility. I thought the original article not especially interesting. I mean, I don't know if anybody suspected the prototype was actually functional. At the presentation he talked about various unfinished parts and that it was a bit of a rush job. Trevor's reaction to it, I think, was over-the-top. It looks for all the world like a she-doth-protest-too-much situation.

    I think he should have just ignored it. As far as I can tell, it didn't affect the stock price at all. Even after this tweet, the stock was up a few dollars yesterday.
     
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    You're right, I shouldn't have repeated the rumor about a hit to the stock price. I should have looked that up myself, and we can plainly see it didn't have much if any effect.

    I guess you've been following this story closer than I have, Domenick. What I noticed was Nikola claiming they had used their FCEV truck to deliver a trailer full of beer to an Anheuser-Busch location, suggesting it was a fully functional, highway-capable truck. I thank the person who posted the comment to an InsideEVs news article just a day or two ago, who pointed out that in all likelihood, all it did was drive from one Anheuser-Busch location to another only two miles away!

     
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  10. azyotesfan

    azyotesfan New Member

    Until we get past the insiders being able to sell there's not telling how this will go. I committed to going long on NKLA when it was still VTIQ for three reasons 1) their announcements about their battery technology, 2) the plans to basically be an energy company selling both the trucks and the fuel, and 3) the Badger is aiming to compete in the very profitable F-150 market with something far more realistic for mass market appeal then the Tesla Cybertruck / Delorian. Of course none of this is real yet, making it all a crap shoot, but if they execute over the next 5 years then the current price will make sense.
     
    Domenick likes this.
  11. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Just to update, the stock was up with the rest of the market today: $67.57 USD +$4.02 (6.33%)
     
  12. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Little Monday update. Today has not been kind to the stock. Despite the NASDAQ being up .87% today, the stock is down.

    NKLA-7-6-20.jpg
     
  13. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    Well, I certainly wouldn't buy the stock, because I think they will go bankrupt. But I am anticipating "Nikola World" in December 3-5. I think the stock will stay more or less constant until then. What gets revealed will be important. Nikola claims that they have a battery supplier that will give them twice energy density at half price, and they will reveal this on Nikola World. If true this will obsolete their fuel cell program and stock will go up. If false, the last reason for any stock price is gone. Their fuel cell dream is unworkable, sell semi with 1M mile service, warranty, and fuel for $1M. Good deal for the trucking companies. No risk for them but Nikola will not get the H2 fuel price down low enough to make a profit. They will bleed to death selling H2 fuel below cost.
     
  14. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    I just looked at the stock after a few days and see it suffered a big drop over the weekend. It has stabilized somewhat at these levels, though it does seem to be trending down slightly.

    Today is Tesla Q2 earnings day, of course, and it will be interesting to see if there is any sort of knock-on effect from that news later today. I don't really expect any, but this is 2020 and you never know.

    Nikola-5-day.jpg
     

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