Musk saying 100x better than human drivers in 3 years

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by 101101, Dec 9, 2017.

  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    Musk is saying Tesla self driving cars will be 100x better than humam drivers and a few years also saying Tesla won't be under Intel's thumb.
     
  2. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Any info about when or where he said this?
     
  3. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    Yesterday or day before most of the media articles covering Tesla about this for most of the day. Broad press relesse stuff.
     
  4. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    Someone looking at this post 3 months from now will not know what you are referring to. That is why providing links and detailed information in a post is very important.

    http://mashable.com/2017/05/01/elon-musk-ted-talk-self-driving-cars-mars-trump/#qSo0OUPJPmqm

    He said self driving is about 2 years off. And self driving vehicles better than humans is 3 years off. I don't see anything about them being 100x better than humans. How do you measure that anyways?

    Just for the record, Musk said fully self-driving vehicles were ~2 years off about 2 years ago.

    https://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesl...on-full-autonomous-driving-from-3-years-to-2/

    Now it's 2 years later and he says self driving cars better than humans are 3 years off. I'm as skeptical about this claim from Musk as I am about GM recently saying they're committed to charging infrastructure. I have great respect from Musk and Tesla but I think Tesla has dropped the ball on autonomy.

    Unfortunately for those hoping for a self-driving tesla... they may be waiting a while. We haven't seen any indication that Tesla's camera-based fully self driving system is on track yet. Where is the fully autonomous Tesla?

    GM (and Waymo) are about a year off from launching their first self driving ride sharing services. Their employees are already using the cars for commuting. The press has had the opportunity to ride in their vehicles already.

    https://www.greencarreports.com/new...hevy-bolt-ev-to-launch-in-many-cities-in-2019

    Of course, to me none of this matters. I still want a Model 3 even if the level 5 autonomy never comes. Because personally I don't care much about self driving or ride sharing. I like driving and I am not loaning my future Model 3 to anyone! :)
     
    Domenick likes this.
  5. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    I think Tesla is now designing its own chip for AI for its autonomous program. Eventually, I think it's going to be killer, but, as usual, way behind his original timeline. (I find it amusing that Musk is developing AI, but also warning against the danger of it.)
     
    WadeTyhon likes this.
  6. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member



    Now he is saying they will be 100x better than humans in a few years. Big leap from 10x better when ever that was set to occur. It was all over the news everywhere. Get the point but not always in a hurry to provide a like so a sponsored (bought and paid for media outlet can) can then push ads based on the link.
     
  7. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    I had not seen the 100x quote. Certainly they will be safer once all cars are autonomous. But 100x better in 3 years seems impossible / unlikely. Do you have the exact quote?
     
    Domenick likes this.
  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I thought perhaps Elon was suggesting 1/100... that is, one percent... of the accident rate with human drivers. But since this is apparently just one more unfounded claim from our resident forum eccentric, "101101", then I'm surprised anyone is paying attention to it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2017
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yeah, it seems Tesla "hit a wall" so to speak when MobilEye pulled out of its partnership with Tesla and its quest for a fully autonomous driving system. Now Tesla is having specially built chips made for it, presumably to replace the missing MobilEye system. I also think Elon's stubborn refusal to use LiDAR is also holding back Tesla's advancement.

    Meanwhile, competing semi-autonomous driving systems are advancing. Google/Waymo was IMHO always ahead of Tesla in terms of the ability of its driverless or semi-driverless cars to handle a wide variety of driving situations; but Waymo wasn't talking about its system being used outside of its own testing program, so Tesla was in the lead in actually deploying its system outside its own testing program.

    Perhaps that is changing? Recent reports are that Waymo is planning on launching a pilot ride-hailing service in a Phoenix suburb:

    "Waymo’s Ride-Hailing Service Is Launching Soon With Fully Autonomous Cars"

    Tesla is in danger of being left behind in the field of autonomous driving, and IMHO if Elon doesn't change his mind about LiDAR, there's no question that Tesla will no longer be in serious contention for developing its own Level 4-5 autonomous driving system. IMHO either Elon will have to change his mind about LiDAR, or else Tesla will eventually wind up buying its Level 4 or 5 autonomous driving system from some other company... which will still require installing LiDAR in Tesla cars.

    Did I mention that I think it's time, or past time, for Elon to step back and let someone else be CEO of Tesla Inc.? Yeah, I think I may have said that a time or two. ;)
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2017
  10. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    And that is a typical shill thing to suggest isn't. Who pays you?
     
  11. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    LOL :p Wait, wait... Pushmi-Pullyu? An anti-Tesla/petrol shill?

    I think in the 3+ years I’ve visited Inside EVs this is the first time I’ve ever seen THAT suggested.

    Just when I think you couldn’t possibly jump another shark, 101101. You manage to build a higher ramp.
     
    Domenick likes this.
  12. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    I am no subscriber to the great man theory, but in the case of Musk what are the possible replacements? This was like someone suggesting Jobs should leave Apple. The only reason people suggest is wanting to see the company go under.
     
  13. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    ROTFLMAO!!

    :eek: :rolleyes: :) :D ;)

    This is actually not the first time 101101 has accused me of being a shill for Big Oil. Even funnier is the fact that 101101 is the second person who has accused me of that. And the first wasn't by anyone as, um, "eccentric" as 101101, either!

    The first I ever noticed was, as I recall, some newbie (I don't recall the name) who read a comment of mine to an InsideEVs news article, a comment criticizing Tesla for something or other. The newbie, not knowing my history...

    * * * * *

    I must write to Exxon; I seem to be missing my monthly shill payment! :cool:
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2017
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  14. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Please don't question the integrity of other Forum members.
     
    WalksOnDirt likes this.
  15. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    You might ask other forum members not to do that as well and in each case look at where the antagonism actually started.
    Your own integrity is in question if you apply this unevenly or without regard to the actual sources of antagonism.
     
  16. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Well, in this case the antagonism seemed to have started when you replied to @Pushmi-Pullyu's thoughtful post without any sort of fact, or even opinion-based rebuttal, but rather with an accusation of shilling.

    Please don't do that. Thank you.

    I tend to disagree with aspects of Pushmi-Pullyu's opinion about this particular issue, but I wouldn't question his motivation for expressing them.
     
    Pushmi-Pullyu and WadeTyhon like this.
  17. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    See, the problem is you question the integrity of everyone who you disagree with.

    Forum posters, corporations, politicians, public figures, journalists. Even long time die-hard Tesla supporters.

    No one here is questioning your integrity. I have been around the EV scene enough to know good intentioned people like yourself. You are just like the average commenter on Electrek. You probably don’t own an EV but you care about our move away from FF so you want to try and be involved in any way possible.

    But I suggest dialing it back if you want to be taken seriously.

    I have said from when you first showed up here ‘hey i agree with you that our dependency on fossil fuels needs to be phased out. But you’re going about it the wrong way. You will just turn people away.’ You have done exactly that!

    I especially don’t suggest questioning the integrity of a forum admin. Besides, I have seen Domenick make similar comments already to others. Specifically something said to a person who has polar opposite views from you.

    So we are questioning the ideas you present and your constant accusations and incorrect statements... because you very rarely provide substantive proof for them.

    We are not claiming you are a ‘paid shill for green tech’ or something silly like that. XD

    For instance:

    I asked if you could you provide the ‘100x better than humans’ quote since I had not seen it. Could you give his full quote? Were you simply paraphrasing it? Exaggerating for dramatic effect?

    If it is a direct quote, I really want to know! If not, that is fine.

    I just want to know if this quote should be attributed to Elon Musk or 101101. ;)
     
    Domenick likes this.
  18. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    How hard is it take two seconds to search?
    Or to stay up on the material you post? A single instance comes to mind on an actual innacuracy. The sarcasm above is impuning integrity.

    When pointing out stuff that was all over the news in response goes back 7 months to stuff that is now inaccurate. What is the point of spreading inaccuracy.
     
  19. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    To his disrespectful sarcastic post?
     

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