Musk on Tesla Semi "This beats rail on economics"

Discussion in 'Semi' started by 101101, Nov 17, 2017.

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  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    Musk said that the Tesla Semi while always better than diesel trucks on economics will also beat rail in platoon mode.

    1. Average locomotive range is 500 miles.

    2. Semis are apparently responsible for 80% of freight haul in the US.

    Taken together you see that Tesla Semis match the range of rail- eliminating any range concern, while matching the flexibility of a truck but of course also beating diesel trucks on cost.

    Let me also add that mandated 30 min break matches range limit for Tesla semi and the recharge rate is in the range of refuel for a diesel. With Musk noting that energy will be locked in at 7 cents a kwh because solar charges power paks at each charger station or "mega chargers" and spread across the super charger stations.

    This reminds me of one of petrol's stupid canards: that cheap gas and diesel... have an impact on the adoption rate of electrics. They do not at all. Its a way of trying to say the helpless petrol industry has some power over its utter now totally obvious now long time obsolesence. It does not. Petrol rates are unreliable they raise them to protect the rich from deflation and enrich petrol rent seekers in the process at our expense. Nothing can stop this now petrol is the black berry against the iphone but in this case its an iphone that doesnt need a telco or ISP and we learned that all the Telcos stole tons of money from us.
    Kumar Plocher likes this.
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  3. Benz

    Benz Member

    Elon Musk did not mention the capacity of the battery pack of the Tesla Semi.

    Any idea/guess?
  4. We were just talking about that on the InsideEVs Slack channel. I want to say 600 kWh, but that is based on absolutely nothing. If we can figure out how much energy the Megacharger dishes out, then we could make a closer guess. 400 miles of charge in 30 minutes -- if the battery was 600 kWh, that would require maybe 1,000 kW feed. Maybe? Sounds pretty nuts.
    Kumar Plocher likes this.
  5. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    Really some focused points put out at their best presentation ever. Letting the car roll out of Semi with him in it. Great easter egg great trailer function. And then letting the crowd move in to finger everything and stick their phones up in the innards! Amazing.

    But the message in petrol was huge:

    Better economics than rail but flexibility of semis but showing the pick up truck image carrying a F150 or some such truck suggests a beast that will carry maybe 5x weight of a F150 and the 10000 nm torque on the roadster suggests tech that will pull 14x what F150 does and the range of the roadster suggests range issues solved by 2020 and the charge speed of the semi suggests charge times solved by then. And the lock in rate for on grid (back up) shows a very serious solar/battery backed third cord cutting application beyond the giga factory industrial power factory roof and integrated solar tiles and battery home cord cutter.

    Charge speed could be faster than gasing a car given 33k lbs tractor weight plus 80k haul scale uo from less aerodynamic Proterra bus at 36k lbs and 350 mile start stop range and 600kwh battery.

    The message is electric will be better then petrol at everything very shortly. Also had to be solid state batteries in roadster.

    Worst case fuel 7cents a kwh at 1800 kwh vs $2.50 at 450 gallon to go 1000 has 55% per mile lower energy/fuel cost.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
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  6. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    Mr. Musk's estimate of $1.26 per mile does beat the industry average of $1.38 per mile, as stated in the infographic here: So at some point the less expensive operation and fueling is going to create savings despite the (assumed) higher initial price.

    If we dive further into the infographic and do some math, it looks like semi trucks typically drive just under 130,000 miles a year on average, which would mean based on the per mile cost difference, the Tesla owner saves between $15k-$16k per year on operating expenses. With a million mile warranty, that's roughly 7 and a half years of operation and a savings of around $120,000 on total operating expenses. So for the Tesla to be worthwhile, it would need to cost less than $120,000 more than a diesel truck. From a quick search, it looks like most diesel trucks of comparable type cost between $140,000 and $190,000. So if Tesla sells the Semi for roughly the same price as the new Roadster ($200k-$250k), the trucking companies save at least $10,000 and possibly up to $110,000 on the life of the truck.
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  8. Elon is not the type to leave any savings not credited. They are probably expecting substantial savings on repairs, making the semi more like $300,000, and maybe more.
    Kumar Plocher and Domenick like this.
  9. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

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