Model 3 September production miss

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Domenick, Oct 4, 2017.

  1. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Originally, CEO Musk had said the target was 1,630 units would be produced in the 3rd quarter as it really just starts to turn up the production line. Instead, they only delivered 220. Not good.

    But, with sales of the S and X hitting all time highs, and this supposedly a temporary issue that's been solved, it's hardly the end of the world (despite what the short position guys on Twitter would have you believe).

    What's needed here is perspective. The missed 1,370 units represent about two days of production, once the line is up to full speed next year. Now, if Tesla continues to badly miss estimates, well then we have a problem. This, while drastically short of the target, is a hiccup in the bigger scheme of things.

    tesla-model-3-factory line.jpg
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2017
  2. DSK

    DSK New Member

    Domenick, I read somewhere that 1,1xx VIN numbers are showing up in end of September Deliveries. Have you seen this anywhere? I can't remember where I read it.
     
  3. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    I haven't seen this myself. I'll try to track down some info for you a bit later. Right now I'm on my way to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving in the Florida rain. (Which is better than snow.)
     
  4. God

    God Member

    You may want to clean up your numbers and you're welcome to delete this post after...
    Tesla PRODUCED 260 and DELIVERED 220 3s last quarter...

    "The missed 1,280 units", Musk tweeted 30 for July, 100 for August and 1500 for September and that's production, not delivery...So the goal last quarter would be 1630, they produced 260 so "1280" should really be 1370...
     
  5. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    So.Many.Numbers.

    Thanks for help keeping me honest. Typically, I like to double check everything I write (especially in a news article), but I've been pretty busy with this forum project and, well, I'm human.

    I had wanted to just really talk about September numbers, but have changed it all to reflect the quarter.

    Will keep your post as a reminder. I'm not always right, and people are more than welcome to set me straight.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2017
  6. Benz

    Benz Member

    Delivery numbers of the Tesla Model 3 in Q4 2017 will decide if there are structural problems or not.

    I think that they will surely deliver more than 5,000 Tesla Model 3's in Q4 2017. That would really be the minimum. Less than 5,000 would mean that they are not (yet) able to manage all the production processes the way they should be managing it.

    But I think that they will be able to successfully manage all the production processes.
     
  7. Grlym

    Grlym New Member

    For what it is worth, I post several articles be folks I know as serious mobile computer analysts. The first is by a guy who visited Tesla when his wife bought a Model S
    https://mondaynote.com/teslas-new-car-smell-315c72c955d3

    The second is by a very well regarded analyst who is alway a part of the Clayton Christensen research group at Harvard Business School who also has a very interesting car innovation podcast. His article looks at Tesla manufacturing from a distance comparing it to other manufacturing processes and is published from his non-car related innovation blog.
    http://www.asymco.com/2017/10/03/s3x-appeal/
     

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