Model 3 is about to outsell Toyota Camry

Discussion in 'General' started by 101101, Sep 23, 2018.

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  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    So Tesla is about to outsell straight up beat the best selling car by the biggest ICE maker in the world in its toughest market in the US- model on model- realizing Musk's dream- BOX CHECKED!!!!!!!!. It is something the Big 3 could not do even in their home market- something they've been trying 15 years- but year in and year out Camry was #1. Tesla is about to end that. Model 3 as a model already out sold Camry but a big margin in the US to become the number one selling car (not truck) of any kind by revenue. People have to face the reality that the Model 3 is a better car than the Camry in essentially every way and by a huge margin in many ways- just look at the Safety scores on the Model 3- perfect score in every category. Think you'll get a million miles out of a Camry and even if you could it would you couldn't do it for the Model's 3's truly minimal maintenance or radically better fuel costs. Think about what it costs to run a Model 3 from your own roof top solar cells and power walls it approaches free- some of the reason Tesla could bundle in super charger costs.

    In response to this shut out by Tesla and delivering on what others said was impossible. the BS analysis will come saying this is not the F150 or the same numbers. That it is an anomaly. That it is not sustainable or profitable. That it is temporary. BS nonsense about petrol resurgence will be being put forth even when electrics are more than half the market, probably citing the idiotic notion of so called cheap gas (ultra subsidized- nothing cheap more like bankrupting hollowing out at our expense) making a difference or again that there will be some sort of petrol resurgence.

    Funny, right now in Norway there is this conflict where one agency is accusing another car importer agency saying there isn't enough electric car stock to go around. Its funny because Norway is furthest ahead on market penetration. The allegation by subtext seems to be that petrol forces are trying to slow the uptake. I think they've passed the 50% threshold already on new cars and this is too slow.

    Saw another rating that showed that Tesla is the the most talked about car maker and auto products across the US beating out the big 3. You can see that reflected in the stock price typically. Diametrically opposed to the evil idiot criminal short nonsense.

    Soon the Model 3 Performance will have version 9 AP and and it will be car of the year in R&T and Motor Trend and Car & Driver (a year late) saying its the most revolutionary car ever and the achievement of the true mass market electric car, achieving Tesla's goal. Soon Tesla will be at 10K model 3s a week and those will be moving fast- we saw the current Tesla owners step out to help move them... but still there will be captured media whining and naysaying because its paid to lie- BMW will be saying we pay you to lie, they don't pay you anything and we are getting creamed start lying louder!! Tesla proves the best at marketing, and distribution and product and brand loyalty and customer satisfaction and environmental responsibility and brand good will, the best at technology and the best mission focus and plan, the best in too many ways to count and the same idiots will be whining about it trying to say it is all fake news and you should buy Ford or GM or BMW.
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  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    <AHEM> Source?

    Bob Wilson
  4. DaleL

    DaleL Active Member

    The best selling "car" in the USA is the Ford F series with over 450,000 sold during the first 6 months of this year. (Business Insider) Tesla"s sales for the same period, all models, was just 70,000. (Statistica) The best selling non-pickup was the Nissan Rogue at 215,202. The best car was the Toyota Camry at 178,795 during the first 6 months.

    Even if Tesla actually produced and sold 5,000 Model 3s a week from July 1 to today (12 weeks more), the total for Tesla for 2018 cannot be much over 130,000. Tesla's production goal is 6,000 per week, but that has not been sustained. 55,000 is the most likely total of Model 3s for the 3rd quarter of 2018. Tesla is likely to produce about 50,000 non-Model 3 cars and 110,000 Model 3s in addition to the 70,000 first half vehicles for a grand total of 230,000 for 2018.

    While 230,000 will be impressive, it pales a bit in comparison to the Camry which will likely have 357,590 sales (178,795 times 2) for all of 2018. Also, Toyota sells as many vehicles of all types in the USA every month as Tesla may sell this entire year. Toyota worldwide posted a record 5.9 billion dollar profit for just the first quarter of 2018. Worldwide, Toyota produces 10 million vehicles per year.

    Tesla vehicles will also effectively go up in price next year as the Federal tax credit phases out. Once the pent-up demand for the Model 3 is satisfied, Model 3 sales may fall.
  5. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    How the hell is Ford F-series compared to Tesla Model 3? People are talking about midsize sedans and you jump in with a truck?

    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
  6. DaleL

    DaleL Active Member

    From Google dictionary: car, noun
    a road vehicle, typically with four wheels, powered by an internal combustion engine and able to carry a small number of people.

    From Wikipedia: "Today in North America, the pickup is mostly used like a passenger car[3] and accounts for about 18% of total vehicles sold in the US."

    Notice that in my reference to the Ford F series as a "car" I use and used quotation marks. From Google dictionary: Quotation marks around single words can occasionally be used for emphasis, but only when quoting a word or term someone else used. Usually, this implies that the author doesn't agree with the use of the term.

    A pretty nice Camry can be purchased right now for $28,000 or so. The local Toyota dealer has 44 on the lot. The Tesla Model 3 is not in stock and has to be ordered. With delivery, it costs $50,000, but until the end of the year buyers get the full $7,500 Federal tax credit. The Model 3 costs $14,500 more than a typical Camry, even with the tax credit. Next year that will increase to a $18,250 cost difference. There are many people who simply cannot afford a Tesla.

    How the heck is it valid to compare a $28,000 family sedan with a $42,500 to $46,250 electric sedan?

    Tesla has done well; far better than DeLorean. However, at some point, Tesla has to start making money.
    interestedinEV likes this.
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  8. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Well-Known Member

    Here is the problem that I have with all these comparisons. When a new product is introduced, especially a product with a lot of hype and anticipation, there is a bump in sales. The proof of the pudding is being able to keep the sales momentum when stabilization is reached i.e. steady state. What is the sustained rate at which the market will continue to absorb Model 3 when the following happens

    1) The backlog is cleared and all future production is against firm new orders only
    2) The competition has had a chance to bring out products and the market has an ability to evaluate them.
    3) All price distortions due to incentives have expired. Today the Model 3 is $7500 cheaper as the buyers are more affluent and can take advantage of the tax credit. Tesla is selling a $49,000 car but the customer pays less. If the customer had to pay the $49,000 then as DaleL points out, you are comparing a $28,000 car with $49,000 car.
    4) There is enough experience on warranties and how the car holds up after say 20 to 30,000 miles.

    In addition there are two confounding factors which could affect Tesla's future sales.
    5) There are a lot of used cars in the market. Today Tesla has propped up the used car market for S/X. They may not be able to do that for Model 3. Will availability of many used Model 3's depress sales or increase sales.
    6) Do gas prices remain at the current highs or do they decline?

    Have some potential Camry buyers defected and bought a Tesla today? I am sure they have. Have some potential Camry buyers defected to SUV's or other luxury brands? I am sure they have. Are Camry sales in the US declining on a year over year basis for last one year? It appears to be.

    My point is it is too premature to say that Camry is in permanent decline and Tesla did it to them. A year from now Camry sales could rebound and Tesla could find that there is not enough demand for a $49,000 to keep production lines humming. Hyundai/...... at the low end and Audi/Jaguar/Mercedes/... at the high end are threatening to come out with products, then you have companies like Lucid who received a $1 billion investment. These companies could have an impact on Tesla, and the impact could be significant or insignificant. Is what we have seen today a blip in the market that will correct itself or is it the beginning of a long term trend? I do not know. People are welcome to come to a conclusion based on what I consider insufficient data. I would rather wait till about this time next year to get a better read on where the market is headed.
  9. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    Tesla is making money. Their margin across models is 25%. Do some research, would ya!

    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
  10. DaleL

    DaleL Active Member

    Tesla is reported to have made a gross profit of about 25% per vehicle, but the gross profit for the Model 3 is closer to 15%. The company has not been profitable. Tesla had a net loss of 718 million dollars in the second half of 2018. Tesla lost a whopping 2.7 billion dollars in 2017.

    Tesla has a number of business costs that other automobile manufacturers do not have. Tesla owns and operates its own studios. Tesla has a network of charging stations and gives away electric charging to non-Model 3 Tesla car owners.

    Tesla also has some of the same costs as traditional automobile manufacturers such as R&D and warranty repair. Earlier this year Tesla recalled 123,000 cars because of a steering defect.
  11. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Well-Known Member

    Let us take a step back. There seems to be confusion about gross profit and margins on a particular product.

    Calculation of margins may exclude some significant expenses including taxes, interest, overheads, shared services etc. which are included in the net profit calculations (Compounding all of this is the companies have different ways of calculating margin for public consumption). An example of the shared service is the charging network pointed out by DaleL. Does this 25% margin for example include the proportionate cost of the charging network? I do not know but I am going to guess not. If the charging network is not profitable, it will drag down overall results. Many people with the S/X may not be paying for the SuperChargers today and I think that Tesla looks at the charging network as a loss leader rather than a profit center. So this is a lot more complex than it sounds as I have been very simplistic. Similarly, Tesla has invested billions of dollars into plant and equipment and the costs associated with these investments may not be adequately represented by the margin calculations on one product today. Also, delays in ramping up of Model 3 have added to accumulated losses, which have to be paid off.

    Good margins do not directly translate into great profits in the short term. The more important question is, are they generating enough free cash that can be used to pare down their accumulated losses and pay of debt and other liabilities? Also, remember as a company, Tesla includes Solar City and my understanding is that Solar City is not doing that well and the claimed synergies have not materialized. So even if the Tesla division is making great profit, and the Solar City division is not, then overall profit suffers.

    It cannot be denied that Tesla has a healthy margin on their automotive products, and if they continue to sell at this pace, they will become profitable in the conventional sense over a period of time, as long as their debt burden does not crimp them. I think even Tesla acknowledges that the Tesla financial situation is not as comfortable as they would like. The difference is that the bears believe that the financial situation is precarious and that Tesla will not be able to sustain the margins and will go under. The bulls believe that Tesla has turned the corner, that they have sustainable business model and that the company will generate enough cash to be profitable in the conventional sense. As I keep repeating, we have to look at the trends over a period of time and not base our decisions on one snap shot.
    Nayan Patel and bwilson4web like this.
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