Model 3 delivery predictions for the month of October 2017?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by God, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. God

    God Member

    Actual DELIVERIES, not produced...

    I'm going to go with 250...
     
  2. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    250! That's cold, @God. o_O

    I'll play along, though. Put me down for 1,250.
     
  3. God

    God Member

    I’m going off the highest reported VIN tracker...The other question is when will we hear it...Musk tends to be quiet when targets are missed but tweets when they’re met/exceeded...If this tendency rings true and low numbers are produced, we wouldn’t hear the result until the end of the quarter...However, what do we have next month? Semi revealing...We could hear an update then, we could hear that Tesla had to shift some priorities to Puerto Rico...
     
    Domenick likes this.
  4. God

    God Member

    Crap, I missed the one, I agree 1250 as the tracker is at 1135
     
  5. danzgator

    danzgator New Member

    There doesn't seem to be a lot of new VIN's being spotted in the wild, so I don't think there have been many to date this month. I guess anything could happen in the next week and a half, but I can't see them delivering hundreds in that time span. I'm going with 350. We should know more on the quarterly update call 11/1.
     
  6. danzgator

    danzgator New Member

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  7. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Well, we can't have the same guess, so I'm going to upgrade mine to 1,350.

    (p.s., we can have the same guess, but I'm feeling more positive this afternoon.)
     
  8. Josh Bryant

    Josh Bryant Member

    I am putting my delivery number in at 750 for October, with production a few hundred above that as they start to crank at the end of the month.

    ====================

    The two most recent VINs are out of sequence and just another Tesla inside joke, at least speculated that way by the forums.

    Anyone remember sending words to numeric only pagers? Check what 1134 is upside down. (Hint: 1 = L, 3 = E, 4 = H, then reverse it).

    The second one is more of a stretch, 2136. (Decoder: 2 = S, 1 = L, 3 = E, 6 = G). That spells Geis, which Wiki defines as:

    “In Irish, a geas (alternatives: geis, géis, deas; plural geasa) is an idiosyncratic taboo, whether of obligation or prohibition, similar to being under a vow. The plural is also used to mean specifically a spell prohibiting some action, common in Irish folklore and mythology.”

    Maybe a native Irishman could chime in.
     
  9. God

    God Member

  10. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    1 < n < 25,000

    I'm going with n. :D
     
  11. Tim Miser

    Tim Miser New Member

    I will predict 572.
     
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  12. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    Considering they spent pretty much the whole month trying to locate and fix production delays, I'll go with 350. I'd be surprised if it's over 1000.
     
  13. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    And, the official InsideEVs estimate for Model 3 deliveries in October 2017 is a paltry...

    145

    Very disappointing. :(
     
  14. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    And 3 months behind schedule. So first "real" shipments should start in late January/early February and production won't be ramped-up until the end of March. They'll still build around 200,000 of them next year, but the people who were supposed to get theirs late this year aren't going to be happy.
     
  15. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    The Tesla and SpaceX employees who have bought the Tesla Model 3 have gotten real cars, not fake cars. The money they paid Tesla for those cars is real money, not fake money... despite the conspiracy theory claims by at least one or two of the Usual Suspects posting comments to InsideEVs articles; conspiracy theories insinuating that they are not paying real money for those cars. If Tesla was giving those cars away to employees, or selling them at a substantial discount, then Tesla would have to say so in its SEC filings and its investor conference calls.

    If we want to distinguish between the current situation of internal sales and sales to the general public, then by all means let us make that distinction. It might, for example, be useful to call them either "internal" or "external" sales. But to say sales/deliveries of the TM3 are not "real" just because they are internal sales... that's factually incorrect.
     
  16. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    Based on the videos and articles I've seen, there are aspects and features of the Model 3 that are not yet operational and are being added bit by bit via software updates. To me, that means the car is not yet finalized and more in beta testing. When I reference "real" shipments, I am saying shipments of cars to the general public with all relevant features enabled and without non-disclosure agreements. Whatever label you'd like to use to describe that is fine.
     
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  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    You are of course entitled to your opinion. However, given Tesla's ongoing policy of putting hardware features into its cars without the software being enabled until months after the car is delivered, it seems that no Tesla car is ever going to be "real" by your definition. What you are calling "not real" is what Tesla would call "leaning forward".

    Most buyers of Tesla cars, or at least the ones posting comments to the Tesla Motors Club forum, see Tesla's policy of forward enabling as an advantage, as a series of "presents" over the months after they take delivery of their car, as Tesla enables one function after another. They don't see it from the negative viewpoint you're expressing, as "relevant" features not being enabled when the car is delivered.

    I think Tesla has the right policy. The alternative would be for Tesla to not put "forward leaning" hardware into its newest cars; to wait until software was fully developed before putting the hardware which that software needs into production cars. That means there would be a lot of Tesla owners disappointed that they missed out on a new feature which they would have gotten if they had waited a few weeks, or maybe a month or two.

    That would lead to would-be Tesla buyers delaying a purchase in the hopes that they would get more features by waiting a few weeks or months. Clearly that would not benefit Tesla's income, nor would it be of any benefit to Tesla car owners.

    In summary, I think it's safe to say there could never be any consensus around your opinion, Counterpoint. That doesn't mean your opinion has less value than others, but it does mean your opinion will almost certainly remain an outlier.
     
  18. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    I think where our opinions differ is not in appreciation that Tesla offers software upgrades (love it) or in understanding that there are features like Full Self-Driving that they acknowledge won't be available for a while, but in my desire for a functional baseline. From early videos, the first Model 3s released did not have FM radio, Bluetooth phone connections, or functioning Autopilot. These features are supported by hardware but did not work until Tesla released software updates (I think they're all enabled by now). And I would not want to buy a vehicle where these sorts of things were unfinished at the time of purchase.

    It really doesn't matter to me if my opinion is shared by a hundred people or I'm all alone on it. I'll hold it regardless. But I wanted to explain to make sure you understood what I was actually saying. Cheers.
     
  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I think you've got a much better argument there. Certainly it's reasonable to argue that a lot of people are going to seriously question buying a car which doesn't even have such basic functions as FM radio! Maybe we're just having a pointless argument over labels. I'd call a car model where the FM radio is present, but not enabled, "unfinished" rather than "not real". The latter seems misleading to me, and seems to tie in with the Tesla haters' attempts to falsely portray deliveries of early production Model 3's as being "fake" sales.

    Personally I'm not convinced that the early production TM3s didn't have functional FM radio, despite one report that one delivered car didn't have it. It was only a single report that, so far as I know, was never verified by anyone else. But that's only my opinion; you certainly could be right.
     

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