Model 3 causing huge market share losses to US Camry, Accord, Civic & Corolla & Germans

Discussion in 'General' started by 101101, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. 101101

    101101 Member

    We know model 3 is decimating German car sales in the US with Tesla outselling every Luxury car makers luxury offerings but look down market.

    But look what is happened to the Japanese makes last month in their primary ICE:

    Camry down 18.65%
    Civic down 24.1%
    Accord down 10.3%
    Toyota Corolla down 5.39%

    Ford Fusion down 35.6%

    Now some of this is year to date drops but note the greatly accelerated year to date drop corresponding to last month and ramped up Model 3 Production for Camry, Civic and Ford's Fusion. I think what is happening here is that word of mouth is spreading like oh, that is a Black Berry well this iPhone is a real smart phone...

    As Tesla has been crushing BMW's entire car line up in the states note that its likely for cars with a higher price point across the range so it is a higher revenue crush which is huge.

    Version 9 Auto Pilot and Track mode will only add a ton of gasoline to ICE fire and melt down.

    And predictably the idiots at Seeking Alpha are starting to talk criminal BS against Musk thinking they can Jimmy Hoffa him- he was someone else that worked to destroy enclosure rent seeking. But here is the thing, these fools should be bankrupt and locked up because these entitled criminals think they are entitled to profit from investing in evil. It would be like aiding and rooting for the villains in Brave Heart or Rob Roy and thinking trying to stop this villainy should punished. They keep saying they are investors when they are vandals and the sheer hypocrisy of them trying to make money attempting to manipulate the stock price in an attempt to literally destroy the company by denying capital with the equivalent of corporate slander and libel (glad those aren't things) in a ridiculous conspiratorial transparent campaign backed by petrol is the ultimate in hypocrisy. They keep claiming they are investors with special rights instead of criminal vandals damaging the actual shareholders and keep thinking something would happen to Musk for seeking to stop their vandalism and not to vandals like Chanos is insane. But they are ratcheting this BS up in total desperation to try to drown out- also expect them to along with the Japanese and German auto makers to try to deny their losses in share.

    These people are like arsonists who claim that their investment in arson was damaged by the fire department and should lead to criminal charges. This is a moron narrative on justice for criminals in the pursuit of their crimes in progress.

    You can imagine what is behind the scenes on this, the dumb type of lawyers that argued for instance Monsanto had a right to mislead the public about the safety of rBST or the kind that want to sue Munro presumably because he wasn't willing to spread the lies they thought they were paying for. Presumably they are right-to-exploit type people who would argue this would be bad for the short industry and bad for making money (moronic 'business case' type claims) off things like 911. Same group of extreme fools. We need laws that allow us to lock these kinds of people up, even just trying to bring this stuff should lead to jail time especially for the lawyers- call it contempt of the people. If you're evil you belong in a cell.
     
  2. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Causality: Cause and Effect. Sales of Popular Japanese ICE sedans has gone down. Sales of German Cars has gone down. Sales of Tesla has gone up. There may correlation but causality (Tesla is the primary cause of decline in the sales of say the Honda Accord) is not that obvious. Sales of Accord has gone down for example, compared to last year
    http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/honda/honda-accord/

    However sales of Honda (all models) is actually is fairly flat or may be small decline. So Honda is selling less Accords but more of other cars including possibly alternative energy cars including BEV's. http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/honda/honda-accord/

    The US market is moving more towards SUV's, crossover and trucks, instead of sedans. The year over year decline of the sales of Honda Accord, actually started in Nov 2017, and not in the last 2-3 months when the Tesla 3 were available in significant quantities. So there are many possible explanations for decline in sales of say the Honda Accord including cannibalization by other Honda Products, move away from sedans, more competitive offerings from other traditional manufacturers. From a price standpoint, a Honda Accord is around $30,000. Model 3 is around $60,000 today. So a person on a budget is not going to consider a Model 3.

    That said, increased availability of the Model 3 may have caused some customers to defect, but there is no evidence that it is significant at this stage. And given total sales are about the same, I do not think we can say there is a huge market loss to Honda.
     
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  3. 101101

    101101 Member

    This notion that American's preferences are changing toward higher petrol foot print SUVs and trucks due to cheap petrol etc is utter BS designed to evade emissions controls in a diesel gate bait and switch type move that is so transparent.

    Causation is not correlation but as Inside EVs says its set to be the best seller. But it is also more than the leap of this ICE junk than what a iPhone was over a Blackberry.
     
  4. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    Why is it a surprise? Owning a Model 3 and I realize I never go back to BMW even though I owned 5 of them in the last 13 years!


    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
     
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  5. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Every time a new player comes into the market, they may create a new market or demand that did not exist, but they will also take away share from existing players. I am sure Model 3 has taken away share from BMW and others, but Model 3 has not been in the market long enough for us to conclude that the entire decline in sales of BMW, Toyota Camary, Honda Accord can be attributed to Model 3. It is true that most manufacturers have paid lip service to BEV's and they have not taken Tesla seriously enough. However, that will change sooner or later.
     
  6. MTN Ranger

    MTN Ranger Member

    I really doubt many sales of Civics and Corollas are being affected. BMW/Audi/Mercedes/Lexus/Infiniti are the biggest losers here.
     
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  7. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    BMW and Tesla compete in a similar market segment, luxury sedans. So, the effect of more Tesla's in the market will be to take away sales from their competitors in the luxury sedan segment. It is not completely a zero sum game, as there may be market expansion, new buyers coming into the market, but that is where Model 3 competes today. Not with Camary's, Civics, Corollas, Accords etc, which are about half the cost.
    When the $35K Tesla comes out, that could take a direct hit at Accords and Camary's. Not denying some Accord and Camary buyers may have got the Tesla Model 3 instead, but I would guess it is a small number compared to BMW buyers.

    I agree, but as pointed above, the $35K version may have some effect.
     
  8. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    You forgot the tax credit and rebates. That reduces $10k-$15+k of total price not counting $0 cost, well sort of, of ownership (5 years). These would knock the price of $49k Model 3 down as low as $25k...yeah, it’s in the range of Civics and Corrolla!


    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
     
  9. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    I am not sure in which state you get these rebates of about $14,000. Even if you get rebates and savings of $14,000, it brings down the effective price to $35,000 (not $25,000) still costlier than most Accords or Camry.

    In Arizona, you only get the federal rebate of $7500, so if you take the base model of $49,000 and add no extras (black color, standard wheels. no assisted driving etc), it drops it down to $41,500 provided you have a federal income tax bill of greater than $7500 (after all other deductions and credits). Now the other benefits in gas savings comes over the years, not right away, so most will not look at it as being a little fuzzy. Let us say it is about $3500, making the effective cost $38,000. A well equipped Camry or Accord is around $28-30 K, you can get starter versions as low as $25K. Further to get the $7500 you have to actually buy the car at $49,000 and then wait a few months before you can actually get the credit back.

    Also, you pay the sales tax on $49,000 not on $38,000 and at 8% sales tax, it is almost $900 more. So all these little things add up. You also have to qualify for $49,000 loan, most Accord or Camry buyers may not qualify. Hence there is about a $8,000 to $13,000 difference assuming you are eligible for the tax credit and that you qualify for a loan. If not the difference could be as high as $20,000. Now if you have state credits on top of the federal credit, the difference could narrow. Most states have only the federal tax credit. So your mileage will vary (pun intended), but I would still contend that most Accord or Camry Buyers may not be enticed by $49K Tesla Model 3 (emphasis most).

    Now if you are going to buy BMW 3 series at about $40K to $45K, then the math starts looking totally different. And such buyers are more likely to avail a tax credit of $7,500. Once the $35K Tesla comes out, even with with a $3750 tax credit, it becomes competitive even against the Accord and the Camry.
     
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  10. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    Do you know how to do Cost of Ownership? It’s average $10k-$15k on gas per 5 years. In California, average $2500-$3000/yr on gas while it is ~$500/yr for electric cost to charge an EV. Is that not $10k+ extra saving on fuel for EV? I don’t even include maintenance cost yet which is a lot higher for gasoline cars.
    Btw, I have received total $6000 rebates so far from State, county and local PG&E. $7500 tax credit comes when I file tax. That’s total $13.5k there + $10k+ saving on fuel. My $49k Model 3 would be actually $25.5k over 5 years!l + sale tax ($3.5k) which would be $29k over 5 years of ownership. Let’s talk about any $20k car over 5 years of ownership, what will you end up with? $30k+ for sure.
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2018
  11. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    I do TCO (total cost of ownership) regularly in my job. I understand it very well. Many people I talk to don't, and ignore it. That is a reason why EV's have not taken off.

    As I mentioned, different states have different incentives. In CA, you y have received $6000 from state, county and PG&E. I honestly was not aware that you had almost $13,500 in incentives in CA, before everything else. Not so in Arizona and most other states, all you get is the federal credit. As I mentioned, if you have state credits, the difference could narrow. So if I am looking at $8,000 difference and I get $6,000 from the local authorities, the difference has already become small.

    As far as gas savings are concerned, I went by the Tesla calculations, from their website (the image is below). I took the lower figure, even if I had taken $5,500 there is still a difference if you are only considering Federal incentives. You also have to remember gas is much cheaper in Arizona compared to California and there are states where it is cheaper than Arizona. (When I drive to CA, I always try and refuel on the AZ side of the border and this could save me $10-$15). Based on your usage, your gas savings may be $10K over 5 years. The Tesla calculation is based on $2.85 per gallon of premium, which is not the price in CA. Hence I can see the gas savings being much higher in CA, where it could be as high as $5 in some areas.

    So in the state of California and a few other states, there may be a case that Tesla 3 is actually cheaper than Accord or Camry. In other states, there is still a difference. Also back to my first point. Many people do not understand what TCO is, for them what matters is the immediate price. And such calculations make no sense.

    Please remember I am all for EV's . I am playing the devils advocate. So the state in where you reside, your driving habits, all have to factor in. Also your income levels matter. To get the $7,500 your federal tax bill has to be greater than $7,500 and not everyone qualifies. In your case, you have great incentives to for a EV. Others may not. As I said before your mileage will vary, it depends on the personal situation.

    It is possible that Accord buyers in CA have migrated to a Tesla 3. But have the buyers in other states migrated to Tesla 3? I would say most have not.


    upload_2018-9-7_17-40-14.png
     
  12. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    Fair enough. I’m in Bay Area where everyone with Tesla would have more than $7500 Fed tax credit since household income of $117000 is considered low income.


    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
     
  13. RickSE

    RickSE New Member

    Does anyone seriously think that a $60k Tesla is decimating the market for $30k Camrys or Accords? When I mentioned to people that I was looking at a clarity several people said to get the Tesla. Top of the line clarity’s are getting discounted by $4k before the $7.5k federal credit and (in my state of MA) a $2.5k rebate. This was the easiest decision I ever made. Sure the Tesla is a beautiful car, but the $20k I saved is pretty sweet too!


    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
     
  14. Jimmy Truong

    Jimmy Truong Member

    Clarity vs Tesla M3...dude, please...it’s like comparing Toyota Camry to BMW 3 Series. No more discussion!


    Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
     
  15. RickSE

    RickSE New Member

    I think you missed my point. I didn’t say that the clarity compared equally to a Tesla. I did say that the clarity plus the $20k I didn’t have to spend compares. Not a Camry fan, but I’d probably take a Camry plus $20k over a BMW 3 series too!
     
  16. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Maybe OP thinks this, but the reality is the sedan market is shrinking while the crossover segment grows. There may be some effect from Tesla taking market share, but it's not a simple matter of looking at Tesla sales and subtracting them from Accord/Camry/etc sales.
     
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  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Well actually, Civics and Accords are two among the top five trade-ins on the Tesla Model 3, but I agree that it's an exaggeration to say that the reason for declining sedan sales is the Model 3. If you spread out Model 3 sales among all the models traded in for that BEV, it surely isn't affecting any single one of those models all that much.

    The fact is that auto makers are now making smaller versions of the passenger vehicles that they label "SUVs" and "CUVs", and car buyers are showing a preference for those; a preference over sedans. In the past there was a clear separation between "cars" and "light trucks", but now that line has become blurred. As noted in a rather long argument (in comments to one recent IEVs news article) about BMW's SUV sales vs. Tesla Model 3 sales, the EPA classifies some of BMW's smaller SUVs as "cars" while larger ones are classified as "light trucks".

    Note also the Jaguar I-Pace. From its shape and size it's clearly a hatchback, yet Jaguar has chosen to label it a "compact SUV" for marketing purposes. At best it's a miniaturized CUV... it's certainly not an SUV truck!

    I view this change as nothing more than a shift in marketing strategy by auto makers. Ditto with Ford saying it's not going to make any more "cars". That merely means they'll be making more models that they paste the "SUV" and "CUV" labels onto, because those now sell better than models labeled "sedans". Lots of people have set their hair on fire about Ford "not making cars anymore", but I think it's mostly a mere labeling change, rather than a substantive change.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018
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