If you want some dirt on Tesla

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Aug 30, 2018.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Looking for Tesla stock volume, Mr. Google sent me here:

    It is too soon to say but it seems to be filled with Tesla "bad news" and scrapes the bottom of the pail.

    My favorite: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/steve-bannon-elon-musk-is-a-man-child-and-top-tech-leaders-are-sociopaths-2018-08-30?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

    Former White House strategist Steven Bannon slammed high-profile tech executives in an interview with CNN’s Oliver Darcy on Wednesday . . .

    ‘Tesla is out of control. The board of directors have no control over the CEO. The CEO essentially lies. He flat out lied about securing funding. He then has an emotional breakdown with the New York Times. This is the level of maturity you have with these people. They are not mature adults. They are all man childs. How can they have this unlimited power? It’s outrageous.’


    Bob Wilson
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  3. ekutter

    ekutter Member

    Not that it excuses Elon's behavior, but kind of funny comments coming from one of our fearless leaders closest allies. I really don't think they see it.
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    A funny thing happened since Q2, the 'shorts' became more vociferous:
    • 'complaints about spending' - yet the 'shorts' never acknowledged the spending was to build out the capital infrastructure and handle employee training. This critical omission 'perked my ears up' because it reminded me of the 'hybrid premium' we Prius owners heard since the first arrived.
    • 'complaints about Musk' - the problem is he is like Steve Jobs and in my working career, me. I don't expect an OCD leader to be a 'nice guy' with love and flowers for everyone. After all, look at our President, his people, and the leaders of the Senate and House. Short sighted scum, they make Musk a paragon because he sees something beyond the next 'art of the deal.'
    • re-read SEC filings, all of them - the gross margins on the Model S/X are 28%.
    • Munro reports 30% margin on Model 3 - Tesla is in a position to make ~5,000 Model 3 at ~$57,000 each. Given 12 weeks per quarter, 12 * 5000 * $57000 * 30% ~= $1.03 B operating profit not counting the Model S/X.
    • Approximately 60,000 Model 3 for Q3 - well less than the most pessimistic 400,000 outstanding pre-orders.
    • No volume competition - lots of PowerPoint, YouTube, press releases, and prototype press days with no product. Heck, Hyundai/Kia are the closest and their products . . . I would wish on a 'short'.
    • Elon's trick - he has noticed that every time he tweets something that spins up the tweeters, it gets picked up with fresh calls to remove him. The stock goes down ~5% and becomes much more affordable. That is the time to buy low . . . did Elon buy more Tesla stock recently?
    So I'm content to wait until the Q3 report and later. Then there is that other thing.

    I noticed there appears to be two, reconciliations every month, 15th and 30th. There is a pattern that TSLA reaches a local minimum before each of these dates followed by a local maximum after these dates. A type of 'pump and dump', it looks to be a pattern that would easily pick the pockets of the unwary.

    There will be another cycle the middle of September but by the end of September, even the sophisticated 'shorts' will realize the jig is up: As Tesla shares fall, Amazon takes over as most shorted U.S. stock | Reuters

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