We have crossed the threshold. Its very obvious now that electric vehicles are now cheaper and more profitable to make and its obvious that they are a lot less expensive to run and much more convenient to own. It is not just that you don't have to go to a gas station anymore, you literally don't need them or their rent seeking anymore. The fossil fuel land lord has been evicted and its about damn time! Now we can watch every company stupid and dishonest enough to have a hydrogen program thrash about as they go under. ICE will be reduced to a temporary niche faster than Blackberry, it will fall much faster than land lines. And its clear the bait and switch of hydrogen isn't going to work. Its energy economics are worse than hybrids and its really all things considered not cleaner than even hybrids and the vehicles will always be more expensive because they are so much more complicated. But the kicker is having to expend 2x the energy you get out, you literally go 50% into the red on the processing into hydrogen. With a BEV the energy off your roof goes in at 90% or greater and you can recoup that energy back into the vehicle with braking but you can't with hydrogen short of the added cost and space of a battery or redundant power train. And bad as dirty natural gas in disguise is economically the hydrogen from fresh water variant where the energy comes from wind or solar is even worse like 3x worse on price and still super wasteful of that green energy- remember there is no green surplus if there is any fossil fuel still being expended during a duck curve because that FF generation should be halted and the contract voided or corrected to actually reflect the public interest- with nothing going to those who foolishly invested in FF and should have known and did know not to invest and where they have already been compensated countless times over for what is actually ill-gotten- the answer is just no! So no, a hydrogen version of the diesel bait and switch is not in order, nor is another Enron bait and switch to save toxic natural gas. Hydrogen in vehicles is basically a very inferior gas based non recuperative battery with terrible costs and superfluous support and supply chains that are the most inefficient ever known. But lets be honest, ICE never really was profitable it was always a corporate welfare case despite the people who used it to put money in their own pockets. Ask why fossil fuel subsidies are still in place today. Answer is the would go bankrupt instantly without it. This is why Goldman said: big oil was never that big they have to borrow from us just to pay their dividends. You it was always a kind of fraud of Ponzi, difference is now the public is becoming aware of it because of things like first principles physics first. As Tesla enters he S&P the decapitalization of ICE will happen like a pin to a balloon and with it fossil fuels and these will fall out of the S&P as they should have a long time ago because all they've done is lose value for 3 decades already fossil fuels in the are 1/5 their former percentage. Another thing that will happen is these companies won't be able to continue pay dividends. Take GM, those dividends and stock buy backs are gone on it primrose path to being a penny stock and even where its price drops below its tangible assets it will have trouble being bought. And if GM goes under which seems almost foregone it will be because it was a lying ICE relic to the very end. None of this is investment advice it just stating the obvious. But there is an important point here that I think will be lost on some. People have been watching this change approaching for a long time and they've never taken their eyes off of it so it just happening and the threshold being crossed while a massive event is utterly concretely undeniable and irrevocable. The US in particular will be much better off without the fossil fuel industry and without ICE. If you're still double taking look what happened with Black Rock. They (they former largest funders of fossil fuels) announced divestment of fossil fuels right before it went negative and it was necessary to pay people to take it because its value was in the red and you had to pay people to take it. When you think of that in the red number remember the thermodynamics of hydrogen which are so bait and switch they start in red just based on physics, its not even lean its just way deep into the red based on the physics. Still double taking- look the US is leaving Afghanistan because totally obvious we don't need their natural gas ('gold road') because more than ever its clear the economics of fossil fuels just don't work and no hide bound inefficient fossil fuel based economy will ever compete for cost of goods with modern green economies and tariffs can't even remotely over come that difference. The Trumpian effort to rescue fossil fuels bought people a few minutes but its over. People now have totally distributed access globally to rock solid reliable 100% green power for $1 per 100kwh and falling fast (never to go back up again.) It is much cheaper to build new green than to continue to pay any price fossil fuels can stay in business at even with their massive subsidies.
