Hybrid is a recipe for massive market share loss

Discussion in 'General' started by 101101, Jan 17, 2018.

  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    So now we are hearing it from the Italian design shops that hybrid is a bridge to full electric. Kind of like natural gas is supposed to be a 'bridge fuel.' Lamborghini just said they would not do self driving but they would do a hybrid as an intermediary to a some day electric.

    A good analogy for this situation might be HDTV. The first HDTVs were actually tube based sets- CRTs. As we know tubes tended to max out at about 25 inches, in part because its a takes a lot of glass and weight to support the vacuum of even a 25 inch screen- 75-100lbs for a 25 inch set was not unreasonable. Still, at the true dawn of HDTV there were some considerably larger and somewhat heavier HDTVs. I had a Samsung HDTV built from 2006-7 that was a CRT (tube set) that was pretty revolutionary for CRT TV because it was not only approaching 30 inches it was also flat faced instead of curved (hard to do) and rectangular HDTV aspect ratio- most tubes were square. Now imagine if industry stalwarts noticed new light flat panel HDTVs coming on the market but instead of offering their own instead offered a HYBRID LCD/CRT in a couple flavors, LCD remote and LCD control panel on the tube set? That is what most of the petrol captured auto industry is attempting. You can't repackage obsolete inferior technology, no amount of marketing and spin will fix this.

    Here is another example. Tesla threw down the gauntlet on super cars- in addition to mid size cars and luxury (improved S & X are coming) and semis we are seeing stuff like the Lilium (another company) and electric barges and electric trains (in China in particular, even solar roads there) and Hyperloop all full electric tech and it threw down the gauntlet on electric storage so a full replacement echo system is brewing. But on super cars in particular imagine the following:

    The upcoming Roadster Tesla introduces will be better than what it recently showed at least in some variants- that's Tesla's pattern.

    So plausibly: $200K with 1250nm (4th motor option would help) and then not long there after the price drops closer to the current model X and Model S range because the Model S and X have improved but also dropped in price leaving room at the top. So for 150K is a pure electric roadster say in 2021 but with specs that beat current Formula 1 cars on acceleration 0-60, 0-100 and top speed- this is predictable- announced specs already beat some Formula 1 0-60 and top speed. Of course it won't Formula 1 on braking or handling and of course Formula 1 is artificially limited. But forumula 1 cars also cost about 10 million, and seat 1 person and Tesla will be going for the Formula 1 records- at least up to the point when the car was announced last year, but again even if petrol captured F1 sees this coming and adjusts the limits will the roadster be that far behind the averages F1 specs along those parameters even in the year launched? And that is all a result of power train superiority, because there is no way a passenger car competes with the other elements of this design comparison. The ICE components of the hybrid power train are essentially dead weight- to carry around that dead weight and try to compete with the roadster (even with the artifical limits of Formula 1 removed) hybrid super car makers may be spending a lot more per unit than the cost of a Formula 1 car that they also run and manufacture.

    So its like one of these tube set makers produces what it considers a competitive HDTV in 2008 but its still a tube with most of the tube disadvantages including costing 130x than a competitive LCD. Granted they just want to fake it and try to stake out some foot dragging marketing territory- but the difference is so gross they wont' be able to do it. They are looking for the Plasma micro CRT- but we know how that battle worked out and they don't have anything even remotely as favorable as that.

    A bigger smack down is coming for petrol spin though. Petrol captured auto makers (transfer payment dependent- petrol echo system) are getting into robo E likely to try to shill it. Predictably they will try to enter hybrids and set artificial limits that make hybrids look competitive (kind of like playing with street regulations for noise and acceleration to hid obsolesce)- but unfortunately form them firms like Tesla (which has sensibly avoided the scene so far) and the Chinese makes will predictable prevent this or simply run on different tracks showing much higher numbers that prevent spinning the absolute deal killing inferiority of hybrid tech. They won't be able to lose this in algorithms or issue dilutions. It will be completely glaringly obvious that you can't carry around 1500lbs of dead weight and still win.

    The ICE part of the a hybrid power train is absolute dead weight the way the extra glass in a tube set is dead weight, the same way the transfer payment petrol infrastructure (never other than compliance itself with the greatest in history by orders of magnitude transfer payments) is the absolute record setter in terms of dead weight. Its almost as if alien tech were discovered in the 1950 and people behind the scenes got a glimpse of a future that was almost impossible to comprehend but could still be learned from in tiny bits at time and decided instead to put the breaks on science and tech because they were afraid of where it would lead- and the primary means to do so was the petrol scam- good for the economy (?) what a joke its an economy and technology killer by design, saying its 1800s tech is way too kind.
     

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