Fuel Cell EVs to achieve BEV parity 2040

Discussion in 'General' started by bwilson4web, Jan 18, 2018.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I am loath to post a reference to a paywall protected, US Government funded study that is desperately wrong BUT it may show up like I found it:

    In 2020, battery-electric vehicles will be a cheaper vehicle option than fuel cell electric vehicles for the majority of the light duty fleet (79-97%), according to a new study by a team at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO). However, the cost of the two powertrains will converge quickly, and by 2040, FCEVs will be less expensive than BEVs per mile in approximately 71-88% of the LDV fleet, according to the analysis. Additionally, FCEVs will offer notable cost advantages within larger vehicle size classes and for long distances.
    . . .

    The article about the paper is not the best source but at $35 for a copy, I am not inspired to buy it. The primary reason is:

    For BEVs, as the capacity of the battery pack increases, an ever-greater fraction of that capacity is used to move the mass of the batteries rather than the mass of vehicle, passengers, and cargo. This results in a nonlinear relationship between vehicle purchase cost and vehicle range. For FCEVs, after adding the basic components of the powertrain—i.e., the compressed gaseous storage tank, fuel cell, balance of plant components, and small battery—an increase in vehicle range requires only slightly larger components, which has a relatively small impact on vehicle mass and cost. Differences in mass compounding between BEVs and FCEVs may also be visible across vehicle size classes as the ratios of mass, stored energy, and range change.

    The term "mass compounding" is the problem. For example, let's propose a BEV with easy numbers:
    • 30 kWh battery, 30 kWh/100 mi, 300 lbs -> 100 mi range
    • 60 kWh battery, 45 kWh/100 mi, kWh/100 mi, 600 lbs -> 133 mi range
    These ball park numbers show what the paper claims about "mass compounding." Increasing the battery capacity for more range results in higher weight and lower electrical efficiency over the new range. But there are three pages of comments excoriating the paper just from the summary.

    Just there was one takeaway:

    Secretary Perry Drives a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car

    To commemorate National Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Day, Secretary Rick Perry drove one of the world's first commercial fuel cell electric vehicles at Department of Energy headquarters in Washington, D.C.

    Well this makes sense ... NOT!

    Bob Wilson
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  3. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    Holy crap! There is such a thing as a National Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Day? How and when did that happen? Is it official, if it is it really fits with the government pushing oil corporation's agenda for justifying $Ts of taxpayer money to go into the H2 distribution infrastructure.

    This is the kind of thing that makes me thankful that Elon Musk is here to help put things into proper perspective. By marketing his semi truck, he disproves the above premise.
  4. JyChevyVolt

    JyChevyVolt Active Member

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